Russia-Ukraine War Worldwide Impact Huge

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In-Brief

• The Russian aggression against Ukraine is going to have a huge and varied impact across the globe. Regardless of how the war ends, the so-called World Order is going to look quite different.
• Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine has stalled because of the bravery and skills of the Ukrainian military, leaders, and people. They are magnificent.
• The US and Europe have responded very strongly. The West’s reactions have been and will be political, financial, and economic, and are devastating for Russia and its oligarchs. In the end Putin will lose very badly, but further Western interventions are likely to be necessary to get Putin fully out of Ukraine.
• The US economy continues to be strong, as is its job market.
• World inflation will get materially worse because of the war.
• High inflation is still badly hurting tens of millions of American families.

Putin’s Invasion Stalls

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In-Brief

• Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine has stalled because of the bravery and skills of the Ukrainian military, leaders, and people. They are magnificent.
• The US and Europe have responded very strongly. The West’s reactions have been and will be political, financial, and economic, and are devastating for Russia and its oligarchs. In the end Putin will lose very badly.
• The US economy continues to be strong, as is its job market.
• World inflation will get materially worse because of the war.
• High inflation is still badly hurting tens of millions of American families.
• President Biden’s State of the Union was a boring dud except for the opening minutes which included high praise for Ukraine’s people and leaders.

Putin Chooses War and He Will Lose

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In-Brief

1. Russia invaded the Ukraine. The US and Europe have responded very strongly. The West’s reactions have been and will be political, financial, and economic, and will be devastating for Russia and its oligarchs. In the end Putin will lose.
2. A shooting war between Russia and the US and NATO is extremely unlikely unless Putin attacks a NATO country directly.
3. From the Russia v. Ukraine war is going to come peace.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong, as is the job market. World inflation may get materially worse. But it is more likely that we will see the end of the war quite soon. Keep your fingers crossed.
5. High inflation is still badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022, but only gradually as supply and demand get more in balance, and no larger war breaks out.

War or No War Vlad?

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In-Brief

1. Russia, by its actions, has made serious threats of an invasion of the Ukraine. The US and Europe have responded very strongly. The West’s reactions have been and will be political, financial, and economic, and will be devastating for Russia and its oligarchs.
2. A shooting war between Russia and the US and NATO is extremely unlikely unless Putin attacks a NATO country directly. President Biden has handled this crisis well so far. Putin has created a lose-lose situation for himself and now must decide how to minimize his losses. China’s support of Putin is not new and changes little.
3. The big news in US politics is that the Ds have lost their 2 to 1 lead among Hispanic voters.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong, as is the job market. If a major Russia-Ukraine war begins, expect the US stock market averages to plunge. Also, world inflation would get materially worse.
5. High inflation is still badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022, but only gradually as supply and demand get more in balance, and no major war breaks out.
6. Special Counsel John Durham’s indictments against 2016 Clinton campaign affiliates threaten Clinton, the Democrats, the mainstream media, as well as the Obama White House folks.

Putin in a Lose – Lose Dilemma He Created

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In-Brief

1. It is all uphill for the Democrats as they try to hold the House and Senate in the November midterms.
2. Russia has made serious threats of an invasion of the Ukraine through their actions and words. The US and Europe have responded very strongly. The West’s reactions have been and will be political, financial, and economic, and will be devastating for Russia and its oligarchs.
3. A shooting war between Russia and the US and NATO is extremely unlikely unless Putin attacks a NATO country directly. President Biden has handled this crisis well so far, but the American people want no part of a war. Putin has created a lose-lose situation for himself and now must decide how to minimize his losses. China’s support of Putin is not new and changes little.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong, as is the job market.
5. High inflation is still badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022, but only gradually as supply and demand get more in balance.

Putin & Xi Are Losing – Not Winning

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In-Brief

1. The approval ratings of President Biden and VP Harris continue to hover around 40%. It is hard to see what they can to do to raise those numbers meaningfully before the November elections. If they cannot, the Republicans will have large majorities in both houses of Congress.
2. Supreme Court Justice Breyer is retiring. Expect a bitter fight over confirming the Biden promised black female nominee if she is a radical, but minimal ugly fighting if he chooses a mainstream liberal. Any appointment based on race is WRONG. But Biden’s nomination of a black female is baked in the cake.
3. Russia has made serious threats of an invasion of the Ukraine through their actions and words. The US and Europe have responded very strongly. The West’s reactions have been and will be political, financial, and economic, and will be devastating for Russia and its oligarchs. A shooting war between Russia and the US and NATO is extremely unlikely unless Putin attacks a NATO country directly. President Biden has handled this crisis well so far, but the American people want no part of a war. Putin has created a lose-lose situation for himself and now must decide how to minimize his losses. China’s support of Putin is not new and changes nothing.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong, as demonstrated by about 1.2M jobs that were created in November, December, and January. The Biden White House demonstrated its confusion and fecklessness by panicking over a horribly inaccurate early estimate of the January jobs report.
5. High inflation is still badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022, but only gradually as supply and demand get more in balance.

An Easy Supreme Court Confirmation? Maybe

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In-Brief

1. The approval ratings of President Biden and VP Harris continue to hover around 40%. It is hard to see what they can to do to raise those numbers meaningfully before the November elections.
2. Supreme Court Justice Breyer is retiring. Expect a bitter fight over confirming the Biden promised black female nominee if she is a radical, but minimal ugly fighting if he chooses a mainstream liberal.
3. If Russia launches an invasion of the Ukraine, the US and Europe will respond very strongly, but not with our own troops. The reactions will be political, financial, and economic, and will be devastating for Russia and its oligarchs. President Biden has handled this crisis well so far, but the American people want no part of a war, and if one is avoided Biden will get less credit than he deserves.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year for 2021, growth came in at 6.9%, higher than expected. Between real growth and inflation, US GDP has now soared to $24T. Ironically, many Americans think we are in a recession. We are NOT in a recession. In fact, the US economy is growing. But the stock markets are in a “correction” and the crypto markets are near collapse.
5. High inflation is still badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022, but only gradually as supply and demand get more in balance.

A Scary and Rapidly Changing World

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In-Brief

1.  From both the left and right there is agreement that last week was the worst week in Biden’s presidency.
2. The Democratic coalition is rapidly collapsing, led by Hispanics rushing to the exits.
3. If Russia launches an invasion of the Ukraine, the US will respond very strongly, but not unilaterally with our own troops. The reactions will be political, financial, and economic, and will be devastating for Russia and its oligarchs. The US and NATO have now officially rejected Putin’s demand that the Ukraine be prohibited from future membership in NATO.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 6%. Ironically, many Americans think we are in a recession. We are NOT in a recession. In fact, the US economy is booming. But the stock markets are in a “correction” and the crypto markets are collapsing.
5. High inflation is still badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022.
6. In an embarrassing, but necessary reversal, Europe’s “greens” are now accepting investments in natural gas projects as environmentally sound.

Celebrating Martin Luther King

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In-Brief

1. Martin Luther King called for an America united around color blindness when it came to race, and equality when it came to opportunity. Biden and the left-wing progressives are calling for a return to segregation based on race and ethnicity.
2. The Biden presidency is effectively ending with the events of last week and those coming this week.
3. If Russia launches an invasion of the Ukraine, the US and NATO will respond very strongly. The reactions will be political, financial, and economic, and will be devastating for Russia and its oligarchs.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 6%. December’s unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.2% to 3.9%. Ironically, many Americans think we are in a recession. We are NOT in a recession. In fact, the US economy is booming.
5. But high inflation is badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022 as supply and demand come more into balance.

Violence Headed for Numerous European and Asian Countries

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Thanks,
Al

In-Brief

1. America is likely to have good economic growth this year! And no stagflation. Inflation will slow gradually as the global supply chain untwists itself.
2. There will be widespread political violence in Europe and Asia over extreme energy inflation and authoritarian anti-Covid policies. Kazakhstan and France are facing violent protests now.
3. If Russia launches an invasion of the Ukraine, the US will respond very strongly, but not unilaterally with our own troops. The reactions will be political, financial, and economic, and will be devastating for Russia and its oligarchs. The previous weakness of President Biden in Afghanistan, and the newness of German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, will force them to be resolute against Putin. The US and NATO have now officially rejected Putin’s demands that the Ukraine be prohibited from future membership in NATO.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 6%. December’s unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.2% to 3.9%. Ironically, many Americans think we are in a recession. We are NOT in a recession. In fact, the US economy is booming.
5. But high inflation is badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022.