Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays!

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays!

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In-Brief

  1. Have a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
  2. The 2020 elections were mired by unconstitutional acts by state officials and by substantial fraud. Expect the Supreme Court to rule on both. The question is when?
  3. The two Georgia Senate races edge toward Republican victories.
  4. Vaccinations against Covid, with vaccines from both Pfizer and Moderna, have started! But Covid-19 will still be extremely dangerous through the spring.
  5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. The huge 3rd quarter GDP gain shows the recovery is V-shaped. That recovery has extended well into the 4th quarter as the latest data show. But it is slowing a bit based on new restrictions on economic activity because the spike in Covid cases.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Are Free & Fair Elections in Our Future?

Are Free & Fair Elections in Our Future?

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In-Brief

  1. Only the Supreme Court can ensure free and fair elections in the future.
  2. The 2020 elections were mired by unconstitutional acts by state officials and by substantial fraud. Expect the Supreme Court to rule on both.
  3. The Electoral College votes are cast from the state capitals this Monday, Dec. 14, but that step will not end the political and legal wrangling.
  4. Vaccinations against Covid have started! Survival rates after having Covid-19 have become quite high. But Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous.
  5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. The huge 3rd quarter GDP gain shows the recovery is V-shaped. That recovery has extended well into the 4th quarter as the latest data show. But it is slowing a bit based on new restrictions on economic activity because the spike in Covid cases.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Understanding the Post-Election Chaos

Understanding the Post-Election Chaos

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In-Brief

  1. No one knows for sure who the next President will be, but the Trump lawyers have a high burden of proof. They need to provide, in the contested states, definitive evidence that fraud caused tens of thousands of votes to be stolen from Trump or fraudulently created for Biden. Such proof could cause the Supreme Court to step in or the internal political actors [legislature, Governor, courts] in the contested states could intervene.
  2. The 2020 elections were mired by unconstitutional acts by state officials and by substantial fraud. Expect the Supreme Court to come down hard on both.
  3. The Electoral College votes are cast from the state capitals next Monday, Dec. 14, but that step probably will not end the political and legal wrangling.
  4. Survival rates after having Covid-19 have become quite high. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. The number of cases in the US is soaring! Vaccines should begin available to those most at risk by mid-December.
  5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. The huge 3rd quarter GDP gain shows the recovery is V-shaped. That recovery has extended well into the 4th quarter but is slowing a bit because of new restrictions on economic activity because the spike in Covid cases.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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On to the Supreme Court

On to the Supreme Court

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Al

In-Brief

  1. No one knows for sure who the next President will be, but the Trump lawyers have a high burden of proof. They need to provide, in the contested states, definitive evidence that fraud caused tens of thousands of votes to be stolen from Trump or fraudulently created for Biden.
  2. The 2020 elections were mired by unconstitutional acts by state officials and by substantial fraud. Expect the Supreme Court to come down hard on both.
  3. The Supreme Court ruled in a New York case that Constitutional rights to religious liberty cannot be abridged except for the most serious circumstance. New York’s restrictions on church attendance were found to be too extreme.
  4. Survival rates after having Covid-19 have become quite high. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. The number of cases in the US is soaring! Vaccines should begin available to those most at risk by mid-December.
  5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. The huge 3rd quarter GDP gain shows the recovery is V-shaped. That recovery has extended well into the 4th

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Now on to the Federal Courts

Now on to the Federal Courts

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Al

In-Brief

  1. No one knows for sure who the next President will be, but the Trump lawyers have an extremely high burden of proof. They need to provide, in the contested states, definitive evidence that fraud caused tens of thousands of votes to be stolen from Trump or fraudulently created for Biden.
  2. Except for the possible Biden win of the Presidency, the Democrats had a miserable 2020 election. So too did the pollsters and pundits who, as in 2016, got most of their predictions wrong.
  3. If Biden does become President, he will enter with a very weak political hand and a gridlocked Congress.
  4. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become quite high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. The number of cases in the US is soaring!
  5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. The huge 3rd quarter GDP gain shows the recovery is V-shaped.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Election Fraud? What Comes Next?

Election Fraud? What Comes Next?

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In-Brief

  1. Biden leads in the Electoral College. Historic Supreme Court actions would be required to re-elect Trump. The extent of the election fraud in key counties and states makes that possible but not guaranteed.
  2. Republicans lose a net of one Senate seat but likely to retain Senate majority after GA runoffs in January.
  3. The Republicans surprise by gaining US House seats, gaining in the state legislatures, as well as picking up one governorship.
  4. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. The number of cases the US is soaring!
  5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. The huge 3rd quarter GDP gain shows the recovery is V-shaped.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Election Uncertainty

Election Uncertainty

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In-Brief

  1. Biden leads in the Electoral College. Historic Supreme Court actions would be required to re-elect Trump.
  2. Republicans lose a net of 1 or 2 seats but likely to retain Senate majority after GA runoffs in January.
  3. The Republicans surprise by gaining US House seats, gaining in the state legislatures, as well as picking up one governorship.
  4. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. The number of cases in Europe and the US is rising again, although the death rate has plummeted to about 1%. The World Health Organization and many other health orgs are now recommending against total economic and societal shut-downs.
  5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. The huge GDP gain announced last week shows the recovery is V-shaped.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Election Special

Election Special

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In-Brief

  1. Presidential prediction: Trump 70% likely to win. Biden 30%
  2. Senate prediction: Republicans lose a net of 1 or 2 seats but retain Senate majority.
  3. In 2016, at this point in the Presidential race, Hillary Clinton was way ahead in the polls and the betting odds. She won the popular vote easily but lost the electoral vote. That combination may or may not repeat this year. The polls say Biden, but the enthusiasm says Trump. My analysis is that enthusiasm wins.
  4. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. The number of cases in Europe and the US is rising again, although the death rate has plummeted to about 1%. The World Health Organization and many other health orgs are now recommending against total economic and societal shut-downs.
  5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. The huge GDP gain announced last week shows the recovery is V-shaped.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Trump Wins the Debate but No Knockout of Biden

Trump Wins the Debate but No Knockout of Biden

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In-Brief

  1. The final Presidential debate went smoothly with both candidates scoring points. Judging from the post-debate analysis and activities Trump won a modest victory. Biden did create political problems for himself, especially with his statement he will shut-down the oil and gas industry.
  2. In 2016, at this point in the Presidential race, Hillary Clinton was way ahead in the polls and the betting odds. She won the popular vote easily but lost the electoral vote. That combination may or may not repeat this year. The polls say Biden, but the enthusiasm says Trump.
  3. It appears that the full Senate will confirm Amy Coney Barrett as Justice of the Supreme Court early this week.
  4. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. The number of cases in Europe and the US is rising again, although the death rate has plummeted to about 1%. The World Health Organization and many other health orgs are now recommending against total economic and societal shut-downs.
  5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators, including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% in July to 7.9% in September, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month. Retail sales in September surged well above the already high August sales numbers.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Censoring Republicans Becomes the News

Censoring Republicans Becomes the News

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In-Brief

  1. The New York Post is running a series on potential corruption involving Hunter and Joe Biden. That itself was major news, but then Twitter and Facebook decided to censor and bury the story including shutting down President Trump’s Twitter account. Now there are two major stories percolating -- the potential corruption and the unprecedented intervention of the social media into the Presidential campaign.
  2. It appears that the Senate Judiciary Committee will recommend confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett on Oct.22 and that the full Senate will confirm her shortly after that.
  3. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. The number of cases in Europe and the US is rising again, although the death rate has plummeted to about 1%. But If you are elderly and in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
  4. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators, including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% in July to 7.9% in September, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month. Retail sales in September surged well above the already high August sales numbers.
  5. The final Presidential debate takes place this Thursday, October 22. We can all hope it is not a train wreck like the first debate.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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