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This is the only report that presents a clear picture of American politics as well as global politics and economics.

With a paid subscription to The Tuchfarber Report, you will get full access to my weekly in-depth reports and analyses.  This goes beyond the Headlines and In-Brief sections to provide non-partisan accurate analyses.

Election Uncertainty

Election Uncertainty

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In-Brief

  1. Biden leads in the Electoral College. Historic Supreme Court actions would be required to re-elect Trump.
  2. Republicans lose a net of 1 or 2 seats but likely to retain Senate majority after GA runoffs in January.
  3. The Republicans surprise by gaining US House seats, gaining in the state legislatures, as well as picking up one governorship.
  4. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. The number of cases in Europe and the US is rising again, although the death rate has plummeted to about 1%. The World Health Organization and many other health orgs are now recommending against total economic and societal shut-downs.
  5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. The huge GDP gain announced last week shows the recovery is V-shaped.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Election Special

Election Special

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Al

In-Brief

  1. Presidential prediction: Trump 70% likely to win. Biden 30%
  2. Senate prediction: Republicans lose a net of 1 or 2 seats but retain Senate majority.
  3. In 2016, at this point in the Presidential race, Hillary Clinton was way ahead in the polls and the betting odds. She won the popular vote easily but lost the electoral vote. That combination may or may not repeat this year. The polls say Biden, but the enthusiasm says Trump. My analysis is that enthusiasm wins.
  4. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. The number of cases in Europe and the US is rising again, although the death rate has plummeted to about 1%. The World Health Organization and many other health orgs are now recommending against total economic and societal shut-downs.
  5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. The huge GDP gain announced last week shows the recovery is V-shaped.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Trump Wins the Debate but No Knockout of Biden

Trump Wins the Debate but No Knockout of Biden

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Dear Subscribers,

  1. Most of the one-year and two-year subscriptions will expire in the next few weeks. I’ll try to notify you if your subscription is expiring.
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Al

In-Brief

  1. The final Presidential debate went smoothly with both candidates scoring points. Judging from the post-debate analysis and activities Trump won a modest victory. Biden did create political problems for himself, especially with his statement he will shut-down the oil and gas industry.
  2. In 2016, at this point in the Presidential race, Hillary Clinton was way ahead in the polls and the betting odds. She won the popular vote easily but lost the electoral vote. That combination may or may not repeat this year. The polls say Biden, but the enthusiasm says Trump.
  3. It appears that the full Senate will confirm Amy Coney Barrett as Justice of the Supreme Court early this week.
  4. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. The number of cases in Europe and the US is rising again, although the death rate has plummeted to about 1%. The World Health Organization and many other health orgs are now recommending against total economic and societal shut-downs.
  5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators, including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% in July to 7.9% in September, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month. Retail sales in September surged well above the already high August sales numbers.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Censoring Republicans Becomes the News

Censoring Republicans Becomes the News

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Dear Subscribers,

  1. Most of the one-year and two-year subscriptions will expire in the next few weeks. I’ll try to notify you if your subscription is expiring.
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Thanks,
Al

In-Brief

  1. The New York Post is running a series on potential corruption involving Hunter and Joe Biden. That itself was major news, but then Twitter and Facebook decided to censor and bury the story including shutting down President Trump’s Twitter account. Now there are two major stories percolating -- the potential corruption and the unprecedented intervention of the social media into the Presidential campaign.
  2. It appears that the Senate Judiciary Committee will recommend confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett on Oct.22 and that the full Senate will confirm her shortly after that.
  3. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. The number of cases in Europe and the US is rising again, although the death rate has plummeted to about 1%. But If you are elderly and in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
  4. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators, including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% in July to 7.9% in September, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month. Retail sales in September surged well above the already high August sales numbers.
  5. The final Presidential debate takes place this Thursday, October 22. We can all hope it is not a train wreck like the first debate.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings Expected to Dominate This Week’s Politics

The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings Expected to Dominate This Week’s Politics

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Dear Subscribers,

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Al

In-Brief

  1. The Wednesday evening VP debate between Harris and Pence was vastly better than the Biden – Trump debate. Both handled themselves well. Pence was the winner because Harris came off a bit snide and refused to answer some important questions.
  2. The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg unsettled the 2020 election campaign in numerous ways. It appears that the Senate will confirm Amy Coney Barrett, Trump’s nominee, with hearings scheduled to begin on Oct. 12.
  3. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. If you are elderly and in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
  4. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators, including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% in July to 7.9% in September, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Another 2020 Shock – The President and First Lady Contract Covid-19

Another 2020 Shock – The President and First Lady Contract Covid-19

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Dear Subscribers,

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Al

In-Brief

  1. President Trump and the First Lady have Covid-19. More chaos in 2020.
  2. The Tuesday evening debate between Biden and Trump was train wreck … it was awful. It did little to help the voters make up their minds on whom to support. Biden held up well for the 90 minutes, a plus for him.
  3. The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg scrambles the 2020 election campaign in numerous ways. It appears that the Senate will confirm Amy Coney Barrett, Trump’s nominee, with hearings scheduled to begin on Oct. 12.
  4. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. If you are elderly and in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
  5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators, including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% in July to 7.9% in September, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Tuesday’s Debate Turns Race into Referendum on Trump’s Style and Performance v. Biden’s Physical and Mental Capacity

Tuesday’s Debate Turns Race into Referendum on Trump’s Style and Performance v. Biden’s Physical and Mental Capacity

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In-Brief

  1. The Tuesday evening debate between Biden and Trump will, in effect, be a referendum on both, not just of Trump. The referendum on Trump is based on his four years a President. For Biden, it is based on whether he has the physical stamina and mental capacity to serve as President. Be prepared for a major shake-up in the race if Biden performs poorly physically or mentally.
  2. The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg scrambles the 2020 election campaign in numerous ways. It appears that the Senate will confirm Amy Coney Barrett, Trump’s nominee, just before or just after the Nov. 3 election.
  3. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
  4. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators, including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4%, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month.
  5. The battle over replacing Justice Ginsburg is likely to increase voter turnout for both parties and is almost sure to lead to ugly and dangerous violence.
  6. Support for the Blacks Lives Matter movement is falling significantly, even among Black-Americans.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Ginsburg Death Scrambles Election Handicapping

Ginsburg Death Scrambles Election Handicapping

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Dear Subscribers,

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Al

In-Brief

  1. The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg scrambles the 2020 election campaign in numerous ways.
  2. At this point, about six weeks before the election, the two factors that were most likely to swing the election one way or the other were the voters’ perception of Biden’s physical and mental health and whether the fear around the country continues to grow in the suburbs over the widespread violence and crime in our cities. To those two has been added the uncertainty and contentiousness of whether a Justice to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be nominated and confirmed before the election.
  3. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
  4. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4%, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month.
  5. The battle over replacing Justice Ginsburg is likely to increase voter turnout for both parties and will is almost sure to lead to ugly and dangerous actions.
  6. Support for the Blacks Lives Matter movement is falling significantly. Most voters believe an attack on a cop ought to be a “hate crime” and punished with higher penalties.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Biden’s Health & the Extent of Urban Violence & Crime Are Keys to Election Victor

Biden’s Health & the Extent of Urban Violence & Crime Are Keys to Election Victor

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In-Brief

  1. At this point, about 50 days before the election, the two factors most likely to swing the election one way or the other are the voters’ perception of Biden’s physical and mental health and whether the fear around the country continues to grow in the suburbs over the widespread violence and crime in our cities. Other factors will be important, but those two look to dominate.
  2. Covid case rates are falling. The death rate has plummeted. Many of the new cases are among young people who have stopped social distancing. Some European countries are now starting to see a new increase in cases, a worrisome sign.
  3. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
  4. The US economy is rapidly re-opening and began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services.  Almost all the indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4%, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings have been added to the US Job Openings report.
  5. Now is the point that the “swing voters” will begin to pay attention to the Presidential race. They will determine the winner.

<FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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Labor Day and the Real Campaign Starts

Labor Day and the Real Campaign Starts

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Dear Subscribers,

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DON’T MISS A SINGLE ISSUE!

Thanks,
Al

In-Brief

  1. The Republican Convention was much more positive and upbeat than the Democratic Convention, but neither convention had a major impact on the voters.
  2. Joe Biden clearly did NOT get a polling “bounce” from his convention. Neither did Trump.
  3. But the professional betters around the globe betting on the US Presidential race now rate it as a dead-heat, down from a large Biden advantage.
  4. Covid case rates had risen recently but are starting to fall again. The death rate has plummeted. Most of the new cases are among young people who have stopped social distancing. Some European countries are now starting to see a new increase in cases, a worrisome sign.
  5. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
  6. The US economy is being re-opened and began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services.  Almost all the indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4%, a huge decline. The economy is clearly rapidly growing now.
  7. HAPPY LABOR DAY!

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

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