Biden Leads, but Is Not a Lock; Recession Possible, but Unlikely

Biden Leads, but Is Not a Lock; Recession Possible, but Unlikely

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In-Brief

  1. The Tuchfarber Report will contain a weekly report and update on the coronavirus [Covid-19] outbreak until its health, economic, and political effects are greatly reduced.
  2. The Covid-19 epidemic could cause a US recession but thus far the up-to-date data says NO. Expect a very weak 2nd quarter and a 3rd quarter rebound.
  3. Biden becomes the odds-on favorite for the Democratic nomination but does not have it locked up.
  4. COVID-19 spreads dangerously around the world. The risks for most are now modest in the US, but much higher for those over 80 or with other illnesses. Pay close attention the public health officials but NOT to the hysterical media.
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Biden Surges into Lead; Recession Possible, but Unlikely This Year

Biden Surges into Lead; Recession Possible, but Unlikely This Year

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In-Brief

  1. The Tuchfarber Report will contain a weekly report and update on the coronavirus [Covid-19] outbreak until its health, economic, and political effects are greatly reduced.
  2. The Covid-19 epidemic could cause a US recession but thus far the up-to-date data says NO.
  3. Biden become the odds-on favorite for the Democratic nomination, but does not have it locked up.
  4. COVID-19 spreads dangerously around the world. The risks are low in US. However, pay attention the public health officials but NOT to the hysterical media.
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Sanders Steams Toward Super Tuesday

Sanders Steams Toward Super Tuesday

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In-Brief

  1. Biden wins crucial victory in SC.
  2. Sanders heads toward a big Super Tuesday win.
  3. The SC debate was another demolition derby.
  4. COVID-19 spreads dangerously around the world. The risks are low in US. However, pay attention the public health officials but NOT to the hysterical media.
  5. The coronavirus is major health, economic, and political threat to China.
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Sanders Looks Hard to Stop

Sanders Looks Hard to Stop

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In-Brief

  1. Bernie Sanders cruises to a big win in Nevada and is clearly the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
  2. The Democratic circular firing squad debates morph into demolition derbies.
  3. Mayor Bloomberg demonstrates catastrophic political weaknesses.
  4. Another Democratic debate “destructo-rama” is scheduled for Tuesday in South Carolina with the key SC primary to follow on Saturday. Joe Biden’s campaign for the nomination will effectively end if he does not win a clear victory in the state.
  5. The coronavirus COVID-19 has already created a health, economic, and political catastrophe in China. The question now is if those catastrophe’s spread around the globe or remain mostly contained.
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Iowa & NH Fail to Clarify Democratic Nomination Battle

Iowa & NH Fail to Clarify Democratic Nomination Battle

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In-Brief

  1. The New Hampshire primary results shake up the Democratic nomination race. Biden is the big loser, with Sanders and Buttigieg in a near tie for 1st and Klobuchar a surprisingly strong third.
  2. Wednesday Feb. 19 will see an important Democratic debate, possibly with Michael Bloomberg as a first-time participant.
  3. Big Picture Context: Fake news, spin, and low trust by the people now characterize the US media. Straight accurate journalism is almost impossible to find except in a few individual journalists. The people do not think the media is fair, honest, or accurate. They are correct. That jeopardizes the country’s future.
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Trump Acquitted & Payback Begins

Trump Acquitted & Payback Begins

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In-Brief

  1. Trump is acquitted in Senate on the two impeachment charges– 52 and 53 “not guilty” to 48 and 47 “guilty.” All Democrats vote “guilty.”
  2. The retribution and punishment for the soft coups against Trump begin.
  3. The Democratic Party can’t shoot straight at the State of the Union, Iowa, or almost anywhere.
  4. Sanders and Buttigieg tie in Iowa.
  5. The New Hampshire primary looms and potentially “dooms.”
  6. China’s coronavirus epidemic grows into a full-scale pandemic.
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Trump Impeachment and Removal Fizzles – Now the Voters Decide in November

Trump Impeachment and Removal Fizzles – Now the Voters Decide in November

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In-Brief

  1. As predicted for months in the TR, Trump will not be removed from office by the Senate.
  2. The Democratic race for the nomination will be shaped by the Iowa caucuses tonight.
  3. The coronavirus is both a major health and economic threat to China, far bigger than “the experts” suggest.
  4. Big Picture Context: The Republicans are now the working-class and middle-class party while the Democratic coalition includes the poor, minorities, upscale women, and the rich. The country is politically polarized to a remarkable degree.
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Impeachment Trial Heads Toward Dismissal or Acquittal

Impeachment Trial Heads Toward Dismissal or Acquittal

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In-Brief

  1. The Trump impeachment trial moves to the defense with no big surprises.
  2. The Democratic circular firing squad moves outside the debate stage.
  3. Hillary Clinton destroys her path to the Democratic nomination.
  4. President Trump speaks in-person to the March for Life crowd.
  5. The odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
  6. President Xi of China faces five major and immediate crises.
  7. Big Picture Context: China faces difficult years ahead.
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The Impeachment Circus Begins with a Known Outcome

The Impeachment Circus Begins with a Known Outcome

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In-Brief

  1. Try not to get stressed as both the Rs and Ds create political theater in the Trump impeachment trial. The trial has no likely outcomes other than dismissal of the charges or “not guilty.”
  2. The Democratic debate last week was a circular firing squad with BB guns, boredom, and a small audience.
  3. The US and world have had a remarkable week in terms of economics, politics, and policy that will have major consequences for years. The US – China trade deal and the passage of NAFTA II remove serious near-term risks to US and world economic growth.
  4. Big Picture Context: Fake news, spin, and low trust by the people now characterize the US media. Straight accurate journalism is almost impossible to find except in a few individual journalists. The people do not think the media is fair, honest, or accurate. They are correct. That jeopardizes the country’s future.
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