Trump Acquitted & Payback Begins

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In-Brief

1. Trump is acquitted in Senate on the two impeachment charges– 52 and 53 “not guilty” to 48 and 47 “guilty.” All Democrats vote “guilty.”
2. The retribution and punishment for the soft coups against Trump begin.
3. The Democratic Party can’t shoot straight at the State of the Union, Iowa, or almost anywhere.
4. Sanders and Buttigieg tie in Iowa.
5. The New Hampshire primary looms and potentially “dooms.”
6. China’s coronavirus epidemic grows into a full-scale pandemic.

Trump Impeachment and Removal Fizzles – Now the Voters Decide in November

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In-Brief

1. As predicted for months in the TR, Trump will not be removed from office by the Senate.
2. The Democratic race for the nomination will be shaped by the Iowa caucuses tonight.
3. The coronavirus is both a major health and economic threat to China, far bigger than “the experts” suggest.
4. Big Picture Context: The Republicans are now the working-class and middle-class party while the Democratic coalition includes the poor, minorities, upscale women, and the rich. The country is politically polarized to a remarkable degree.

Impeachment Trial Heads Toward Dismissal or Acquittal

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In-Brief

1. The Trump impeachment trial moves to the defense with no big surprises.
2. The Democratic circular firing squad moves outside the debate stage.
3. Hillary Clinton destroys her path to the Democratic nomination.
4. President Trump speaks in-person to the March for Life crowd.
5. The odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
6. President Xi of China faces five major and immediate crises.
7. Big Picture Context: China faces difficult years ahead.

The Impeachment Circus Begins with a Known Outcome

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In-Brief

1. Try not to get stressed as both the Rs and Ds create political theater in the Trump impeachment trial. The trial has no likely outcomes other than dismissal of the charges or “not guilty.”
2. The Democratic debate last week was a circular firing squad with BB guns, boredom, and a small audience.
3. The US and world have had a remarkable week in terms of economics, politics, and policy that will have major consequences for years. The US – China trade deal and the passage of NAFTA II remove serious near-term risks to US and world economic growth.
4. Big Picture Context: Fake news, spin, and low trust by the people now characterize the US media. Straight accurate journalism is almost impossible to find except in a few individual journalists. The people do not think the media is fair, honest, or accurate. They are correct. That jeopardizes the country’s future.

Iran Blinks – US & Trump Win

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1. Trump won the recent battle with Iran’s mullahs and probably the “war“ against their regime.
2. The odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
3. Big Picture Context: The US and China are now in a battle for world dominance. The US will prevail because China’s Economic Miracle is ending.

Scores of New 2020 Predictions Made; 71 of 72 Predictions Made for 2019 were Correct; War with Iran?

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2019 Predictions Report: 71 of 72 Correct [99%]; A Senate Trial for Trump? – What is Really Going On

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In-Brief

1. 1. 99% of the Tuchfarber Report predictions for 2019 were correct.
   2. Raw politics is behind the maneuvering over a Senate trial of Trump.
   3. “Merry Christmas” as a political indicator.
   4. THE JOKE: “Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it, misdiagnosing it and then applying the wrong remedies.” THIS IS A REPEATED JOKE FROM JULY, BUT IT IS TOO ACCURATE NOT TO USE PERIODICALLY.

Merry Christmas!

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In-Brief

1. Merry Christmas! Count your blessings and those of the world’s people.
2. Trump impeachment confusion reigns …
3. The Democrats hold another circular firing squad debate.
4. China will crackdown in Hong Kong in late January or in February.
5. The odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
6. Big Picture Context: China’s halcyon days of growth are behind it.
7. The Joke: “The three stages of man: He believe in Santa Claus. He doesn’t believe in Santa Clause. He is Santa Claus.”

Impeach Trump! Maybe.

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In-Brief

1. Impeach Trump? Follow the politics at the local congressional district level. You may be surprised.
2. The US and world have had a remarkable week in terms of economics, politics, and policy that will have major consequences for years.
3. The British election resulted in a massive victory for the Conservatives and a rejection of socialism. That election fundamentally realigned British politics.
4. The odds of the House impeaching Trump fall a bit, but the odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
5. Big Picture Context: American society is more polarized now than in three generations.
6. The Insight: “Be careful what you wish for …”

Impeach Trump! Maybe.

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Thanks,
Al

In-Brief

1. Impeach Trump? Follow the politics.
2. The behavior of the Democrats unites the Republicans.
3. The Democratic race enters a new uncertain phase with Bloomberg in and Harris out.
4. The British election looks to be a win for the Conservatives.
5. The odds of the House impeaching Trump remain above 50-50, but the odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
6. Big Picture Context: The US and China are now in a battle for world dominance. The US will prevail because China’s Economic Miracle is ending.
7. The Insight: “It is better to know some of the questions than all of the answers.” James Thurber