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The Tuchfarber Report is unique in this era of spin by partisan analysts, fake news, and “experts” who are glib, but often wrong. The Tuchfarber Report is not about ideological spin from the right or left…it is about being accurate.

This is the only report that presents a clear picture of American politics as well as global politics and economics.

With a paid subscription to The Tuchfarber Report, you will get full access to my weekly in-depth reports and analyses.  This goes beyond the Headlines and In-Brief sections to provide non-partisan accurate analyses.

Whither the Democrats on Impeachment?

Whither the Democrats on Impeachment?

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In-Brief

  1. Do the Democrats impeach Trump or just censure him? Follow the politics.
  2. The Democratic race for the nomination is in chaos and in transition to a new phase.
  3. Hong Kong developments indicate China’s economic weakness.
  4. The odds of the House impeaching Trump remain above 50-50, but the odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
  5. Big Picture Context: The Republicans are now the middle-class party while the Democratic coalition includes the poor, minorities, upscale women, and the rich.
  6. The Insight: “If I die, I forgive you; if I live, we’ll see.” Spanish proverb
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House Impeachment Hearings Give Pelosi Only Bad Choices

House Impeachment Hearings Give Pelosi Only Bad Choices

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In-Brief

  1. The House impeachment hearings against Trump are failing to convince the American voters they need to convince – the independents. They are also bringing no House Republicans to vote for impeachment. Worse for the Democrats, they are making it more likely Democrats in the Senate will vote “not guilty.”
  2. Mayor Pete Buttigieg vaults into the 1st tier of Democratic contenders but also into the line of fire. He continues to do horribly with the key African-American base in the Democratic Party.
  3. Mainland China continues its totalitarian crackdown on Hong Kong.
  4. The odds of the House impeaching Trump remain above 50-50 but are falling because of the Democrat’s failure to yet demonstrate any “crime.” The odds are increasing that the Democrats will “censure” but not impeach Trump as that “punishes” The President without setting-up a Senate trial. The odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
  5. The Insights:
    “Trust in Allah but tie your camel.” Arabian proverb.
    “Trust but verify.” Ronald Reagan
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House Impeachment Hearings Change Few Minds

House Impeachment Hearings Change Few Minds

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Al

In-Brief

  1. >Be judicious in expending too much of your time or psychic energy on the House impeachment inquiry. So far, the hearings have been boring, with fewer than 5% of Americans tuning in. Few voters appear to be changing their evaluation of Trump in either a negative or positive way.
  2. Democrats are wringing their hands about the ability of their potential nominees to defeat Trump. Consequently, Deval Patrick has jumped in and Michael Bloomberg also appears to be in.
  3. Trump has no serious contender for the Republican nomination.
  4. China is between a rock and a hard place with the violence in Hong Kong and the need for a trade deal with the US.
  5. The odds of the House impeaching Trump remain high but are falling because of the Democrat’s failure to yet demonstrate any “crime.” The odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
  6. The Joke: “There is no human problem which could not be solved if people would simply do as I advise.” Gore Vidal [Too many of us think that way.]
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House Impeachment Activity is Meaningless “Theater”

House Impeachment Activity is Meaningless "Theater"

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Al

In-Brief

  1. Be judicious in expending too much of your time or psychic energy on the House impeachment inquiry.
  2. Democrats engage in handwringing about the ability of their potential nominees to defeat Trump. Consequently, Michael Bloomberg appears to be jumping into the race. Others may join in.
  3. Climate Change – an existential threat to humans?
  4. China’s “Emperor” Xi says lack of innovation is the country’s Achilles heel.
  5. The odds of the House impeaching Trump remain high, but the odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
  6. The Insight: “Nothing Ever Goes Away.” Barry Commoner
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Democrats Empower Kangaroo Court

Democrats Empower Kangaroo Court

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Al

In-Brief

  1. The House Democrats replaced an informal kangaroo court with a formal one for the Trump impeachment investigation.
  2. Republicans are now firmly united against impeachment.
  3. Elizabeth Warren is target #1 and is suffering from attacks on her but remains the most likely nominee.
  4. Trump remains 90% likely to be re-elected.
  5. The odds of the House impeaching Trump are now high, but the odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
  6. Brexit for Briton to be determined by December 12 election.
  7. The Insight: “All truths are half-truths.” Noted philosopher Alfred North Whitehead. [Think about it; it helps to clarify where we are today, where the middle-ground is rejected for “woke” political correctness.]
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Road to Remove Trump Full of Obstacles

Road to Remove Trump Full of Obstacles

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Al

In-Brief

  1. The effort to impeach and remove Trump still has many twists and turns it can and will take.
  2. Much hand-wringing by Democrats as they worry about having no one who can defeat Trump.
  3. Elizabeth Warren is now target #1 and is suffering from attacks on her.
  4. US special forces kill ISIS leader Baghdadi, demonstrating US power, reach, and commitment to punish terrorism.
  5. The odds of the House impeaching Trump stay at 50-50 and the odds of the Senate removing Trump at ZERO.
  6. The Joke: “Women are cursed, and men are the proof.” Roseanne Barr.
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Ugliness and Ineptitude from Our Leaders

Ugliness and Ineptitude from Our Leaders

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Al

In-Brief

  1. Our political leaders and sports stars presented us with a very ugly week. Trump, Pelosi, and Lebron James showed ineptness and disgusting values.
  2. The Democratic debate shifts the playing field a bit.
  3. Elizabeth Warren demonstrates both major strengths and substantial weaknesses as the Democratic nomination leader.
  4. China’s “Emperor” Xi promises crushed bodies and shattered bones to the Hong Kong protestors.
  5. The odds of the House impeaching Trump stay at 50-50 and the odds of the Senate removing Trump ay ZERO.
  6. The Insight: “I have a new philosophy. I’m only going to dread one day at a time.” Peanuts Cartoonist Charles Schulz.
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Trump & House Ds Battle Over Impeachment, But Senate Decides; 70 of 72 of 2019 TR Predictions Correct… Zero-Incorrect… 2 DK

Trump & House Ds Battle Over Impeachment, But Senate Decides; 70 of 72 of 2019 TR Predictions Correct… Zero-Incorrect… 2 DK

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Al

In-Brief

  1. The House Democrats and the President are politically and legally maneuvering over the procedures to be used in the House impeachment process if it goes ahead. All need to remember that the Senate is ultimately the deciding body and the chances of Trump being removed by that body are essentially zero.
  2. “Progressive” Democratic candidates, especially Elizabeth Warren, now have a large and growing lead over mainstream Democrats for their party’s nomination. Bernie Sanders’ health problems seriously damage his chances.
  3. Elizabeth Warren will be target #1 among the Democrats at the Tuesday debate.
  4. Hillary Clinton hints she might join the nomination battle.
  5. The US and China appear to agree on a limited trade deal.
  6. The Joke: Someone stole my Microsoft Office and they’re gonna pay. You have my Word.
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The Odds of Trump Impeachment, Removal & Re-Election

The Odds of Trump Impeachment, Removal & Re-Election

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Al

In-Brief

  1. There is now a 50-50 chance the House will impeach Trump.
  2. The odds Trump will be removed by the Senate remain at zero.
  3. The probability Trump will be re-elected increases to 90 percent.
  4. “Progressive” Democratic candidates, especially Elizabeth Warren, now have a large and growing lead over mainstream Democrats for their party’s nomination. Bernie Sanders’ health problems seriously damage his chances.
  5. Watch Hillary Clinton to see if she hints she might join the nomination battle.
  6. China has begun what is likely to be a slow, protracted crack-down on the Hong Kong protestors.
  7. The Joke: Someday we’ll look back on this moment and plow into a parked car.
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The Voters Might Remove Trump, Not the Democrats

The Voters Might Remove Trump, Not the Democrats

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Al

In-Brief

  1. There is some chance the House will impeach Trump, but essentially zero chance the Senate will vote to remove him. Only the voters, next November, might remove him. An impeachment now by the Democratic House makes Trump’s re-election more likely, not less likely.
  2. “Progressive” Democratic candidates, especially Elizabeth Warren, now have a large and growing lead over mainstream Democrats for their party’s nomination.
  3. PREDICTION: Joe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee.
  4. The Gallup Poll shows trust of the media among political independents to be very low at 36%.
  5. China’s electric vehicle market collapse may be a warning for many.
  6. TR INSIGHT: Don’t jump to conclusions. Think, investigate, collect facts, and remember history.
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