The Yellow Vest Movement Threatens Europe's Establishments; The US-China Economic War Continues; GHW Bush Gets Deserved Accolades

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Thanks,
Al

In-Brief

1. The Yellow Vest movement against the French establishment and President Macron continues and spreads to the Netherlands and Belgium.
2. The arrest of Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of China’s electronics giant, Huawei, becomes an important incident in the US-China Economic Cold War.
3. The Democrats won a major victory in the US House, but the Republicans salvaged a key power base by adding to their Senate majority.
4. George Herbert Walker Bush gets deserved plaudits for his masterful foreign policy and his personal kindness.
5. THE JOKE: A grenade thrown into a kitchen in France would result in Linoleum Blownapart.

The US V. China Trade War Postponed; Democrats Skillfully Win Big in the US House; Ohio Moves Into the Republican Column

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Al

In-Brief

1. The Democrats won a major victory in the US House and will take firm control in January.
2. Regardless of the truce announced after the Trump-Xi dinner at the G-20 meetings, a full-scale trade and economic war will continue.
3. Ohio is now a solidly “red” Republican state.
4. What are the best and worst case scenarios for the Democrats and Republicans in 2020?
5. THE JOKE: The midget fortune-teller who escaped from prison was a small medium at large.

No Wave, But Big Democratic Gains; Chaos in Vote Counting; China Continues to Edge Toward Recession

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PLEASE NOTE: THE TUCHFARBER REPORT WILL NOT BE PUBLISHED NEXT WEEK, NOV. 26. WE ARE TAKING A HOLIDAY BREAK.

Thanks,
Al

In-Brief

1. 2018 produced a NO WAVE election, but one in which the Democrats did much better than the Republicans.
2. Chaos in the vote counting and possible fraud is widespread.
3. What are the key indicators to watch between now and the 2020 Presidential election?
4. France’s Macron and Germany’s Merkel go off the rails.
5. China edges closer to a major economic collapse.
6. THE JOKE: When the cannibals ate a missionary, they got a taste of religion.

Indeed, A No Wave Election; Democrats take the House; Republicans Gain in Senate; The Border/Immigration Issue Along with Jobs and Health Care Dominate

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In-Brief

1. 2018 produced a NO WAVE election, but one in which the Democrats did better than the Republicans.
2. The Democrats won the US House handily.
3. The Republicans took targeted Senate seats currently held by Democrats.
4. Working for the Republicans were the jobs and border control/immigration issues. President Trump’s rallies drew massive crowds.
5. Working very well for the Democrats was the health care issue.
6. For President Trump, the elections were a mixed bag... both triumphs and failures.
7. Overall turnout was up massively compared to any recent midterm, with both parties adding millions of voters.
8. THE JOKE: No matter how much you push the envelope, it’ll still be stationery.

Still A No Wave Election; Democrats Gain in House; Republicans Gain in Senate; The Border/Immigration Issue Along with Jobs and Health Care Dominate

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Al

In-Brief

1. The Democrats are projected to win US House seats, but control of the chamber is up in the air. Turnout is the key.
2. The Republicans target competitive Senate seats currently held by Democrats. Many Senate races are too close to call.
3. Working for the Republicans are the jobs and border control/immigration issues. President Trump’s rallies have drawn massive turn-outs.
4. Working for the Democrats is the health care issue. Rallies highlighting President Obama and 2020 candidate Joe Biden have drawn more modest crowds.
5. If the Republicans do better than predicted, President Trump will deserve the credit. If the Democrats do better than forecast, the President will have earned the blame.
6. Overall turnout is expected to be up substantially from the 2010 and 2014 midterms, but which party gets a bigger advantage is still an unknown. High turn-outs favor the Democrats.
7. FINAL Prediction – The Republicans will gain anywhere from 2 to 6 US Senate seats. [Change from 3-8.]
8. FINAL Prediction – The Democrats will gain anywhere from 5 to 22 US House seats. [Change from 5 to 18.]
9. THE JOKE: In a democracy it’s your vote that counts. In feudalism it’s your count that votes.

Still a No Wave Election; The Invading Horde from Central America Threatens; Populist-Nationalists are the New Country Leaders

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NOTE: THE MONDAY NOV. 5 REPORT WILL BE RELEASED THAT EVENING IN ORDER TO INCLUDE THE LATEST POLLS & DATA.

Thanks,
Al

In-Brief

1. The Democrats are projected to win US House seats, but control of the chamber is up in the air. Turnout is the key.
2. The Republicans continue gaining ground in competitive Senate races and some Democrats are self-destructing.
3. The Florida bomber story will have little election impact. The migrant caravan will have much more after the Pittsburgh anti-Semitic carnage story plays out.
4. October 29 Prediction – The Republicans will gain anywhere from 4 to 8 US Senate seats. [Change from 3-8.]
5. October 29 Prediction – The Democrats will gain anywhere from 5 to 18 US House seats. [No change.]
6. THE JOKE: Did you hear about the Buddhist monk who refused Novocain during a root canal? His goal: transcend dental medication.

A No Wave Election... Not a Blue Democratic Wave; The Kavanaugh Circus Boosts Republicans; China Heads Toward Economic Slowdown

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THE ELECTION SEASON HAS BEGUN! DON’T MISS THESE MAJOR STORIES!

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Al

In-Brief

1. The Kavanaugh confirmation circus aids Republican candidates by 2 to 4%.
2. The Republicans are gaining a little ground in competitive Senate races and some Democrats are self-destructing.
3. China’s economic growth is slipping and its debt bubble growing.
4. October 22 Prediction – The Republicans will gain anywhere from 3 to 8 US Senate seats.
5. October 22 Prediction – The Democrats will gain anywhere from 5 to 18 US House seats.
6. THE JOKE: Two fish swim into a concrete wall. One turns to the other and says “Dam!”

The Kavanaugh Confirmation Circus Ends and the Consequences Begin to Emerge; The Republicans Gain Ground in Key Senate Races; The US has Declared Economic and Political War on China

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THE ELECTION SEASON HAS BEGUN! DON’T MISS THESE MAJOR STORIES!

Thanks,
Al

In-Brief

1. The Kavanaugh confirmation circus and its consequences now move to the mid-term battle and the voters.
2. The Republicans are gaining ground in many of the competitive Senate races.
3. The US has declared economic and political war on China over both trade and power issues.
4. October 15 Prediction – The Republicans will gain anywhere from 2 to 9 US Senate seats.
5. October 15 Prediction – The Democrats will gain anywhere from 0 to 20 US House seats.
6. THE JOKE: She was only a whiskey maker, but he loved her still.

The Kavanaugh Circus Ends, But Not It's Consequences; NAFTA Morphs to USMCA in a Trump Victory; Susan Collins - A Voice of Reason

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THE ELECTION SEASON HAS BEGUN! DON’T MISS THESE MAJOR STORIES!

Thanks,
Al

In-Brief

1. The Kavanaugh circus and its consequences now move to the mid-term battle and the voters.
2. The economy soars and NAFTA 2.0/USMCA emerges.
3. Susan Collins [R-ME] sets the record straight.
4. A week of victories for Trump.
5. Impeach Kavanaugh – a curious strategy by the Democrats.
6. China descends into even deeper totalitarianism.
7. THE JOKE: A dog gave birth to puppies near a road and was cited for littering.

The Never-Ending Kavanaugh Circus; The Burden Now Falls on the FBI; Blue Wave, or Red Wave, or No Wave?

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THE ELECTION SEASON HAS BEGUN! DON’T MISS THESE MAJOR STORIES!

Thanks,
Al

In-Brief

1. The Kavanaugh circus gets even more destructive and sets very unfortunate precedents.
2. The FBI is charged with a one-week investigation.
3. It’s too early to know how the Kavanaugh circus will move the voters.
4. Will we see a Blue Wave, a Red Wave, or a No Wave election?
5. This week I’ve broadened the range of my election forecasts because extreme volatility has been created by the Kavanaugh circus. We do not know how it will affect the voters. Both the Ds and Rs claim it will help them. We’ll see.
6. THE JOKE: If you jumped off a bridge in Paris, you’d be in Seine.