Category: Tuchfarber Report

In Brief

1. Tax cuts and tax reform are now domestic issue #1 for the Trump and Republican agendas. They will focus on corporate rate cuts to foster job creation and growth and on middle-class tax cuts and simplified filing. The passage last week of the Budget Resolution by the Senate and strong House support for accepting it makes tax reform and tax cuts much more likely this year.
2. China is in the midst of a crucial Party Congress [every 5 years] that will re-elect Xi Jinping as party leader. Xi is, in effect, becoming China’s new emperor. This Congress will have very substantial implications for Chinese, regional and world politics. The results of the Congress will likely set the stage for major economic changes, more authoritarian rule, a pull-back from a market oriented economy, substantial slowing of GDP growth and major Chinese actions on N Korea’s Kim regime
3. The DNC purges Sanders and Ellison supporters in favor of Clinton supporters.
4. The leader of China’s Central Bank warns of a potential Minsky Moment…the sudden collapse of the prices of over-leveraged assets. He especially warns of high corporate debt and rapidly increasing household debt.
5. Sexual predators in Hollywood and elsewhere are being identified and being challenged. Many are called. Many will fall… Who is next?

Continue reading Tax Cuts Now Much More Likely, China’s New Emperor, DNC Purge of Sanders Supporters, and Warnings About China’s Asset Bubbles

In Brief

1. Tax cuts and tax reform are now domestic issue #1 for the Trump and Republican agendas. They will focus on corporate rate cuts to foster job creation and growth and on middle-class tax cuts and simplified filing.
2. China is in the midst of a crucial Party Congress [every 5 years] that will re-elect Xi Jinping as party leader. Xi is, in effect, becoming China’s new emperor. This Congress will have very substantial implications for Chinese, regional and world politics. The results of the Congress will likely set the stage for major economic changes, more authoritarian rule, a pull-back from a market oriented economy, substantial slowing of GDP growth and major Chinese actions on N Korea’s Kim regime
3. Obamacare gets a substantial makeover through regulatory action.
4. President Trump has decided not to certify Iran’s compliance with the Obama/Kerry nuclear deal sending the next set of decisions to Congress.
5. Sexual predators in Hollywood and elsewhere get called out. Who is next?

Continue reading Tax Cuts, China’s New Emperor, The Iran Deal, Obamacare’s Demise, and Sexual Predators

In Brief

1. Tax cuts and tax reform are now domestic issue #1 for the Trump and Republican agendas. They will focus on corporate rate cuts to foster job creation and growth and on middle-class tax cuts and simplified filing.
2. China is ramping up for a crucial Party Congress [every 5 years] on Oct 18 to re-elect Xi Jinping as party leader. This Congress will have very substantial implications for Chinese, regional and world politics. The results of the Congress will likely set the stage for major economic reform, substantial slowing of GDP growth and major Chinese actions on N Korea’s Kim regime
3. “Bad cops” Trump and Haley, “good cop” Tillerson and “tough cop” Mattis confuse many.
4. The NFL has been killing its Golden Goose of a money-making juggernaut with its support of some players disrespecting the flag and national anthem. It is too late to reverse some of the financial and PR carnage. New survey shows the collapse of the sport’s favorability.
5. The deaths and carnage from the Las Vegas shootings are creating a new dynamic in the gun-control debate and policy changes are likely, including some supported by the NRA.
6. New forecasts on tax reform and Obamacare.

Continue reading Mass Murder In Las Vegas and the NFL Self-Destructs

In Brief

1. Tax cuts and tax reform are now domestic issue #1 for the Trump and Republican agendas.
2. China is ramping up for a crucial Party Congress [every 5 years] on Oct 18 to re-elect Xi Jinping as party leader. This Congress will have very substantial implications for Chinese, regional and world politics, including the N Korean crisis.
3. Everyone needs to remember that the white working-class is the key swing voter group for 2018 and 2020 and many Democrats don’t seem to realize it or be willing to stop driving them away.
4. The loss of Trump’s candidate in AL is a defeat for the President and diminishes his clout with Republicans in tight races. It is, however, a relatively minor blow soon to be overrun by other events and news.
5. Obamacare repeal and replacement self-destructed for a 2nd time. But, repeal or major changes to it are essentially inevitable as it is structurally and financially unsustainable.
6. The NFL has been killing its Golden Goose of a money-making juggernaut with its support of some players disrespecting the flag and national anthem. It is too late to reverse some of the financial and PR carnage.
7. President Trump and the San Juan PR mayor might both want to tone things down quite a bit.

Continue reading Obamacare Repeal Fails Again and Tax Cuts Take the Spotlight while the NFL Scrambles and Fumbles

In Brief

1. President Trump’s UN speech on Tuesday was forceful, well-delivered and historically important. Few in the press have reported it accurately.
2. Last week Trump took on battles with what seemed like the entire planet. Battles are raging with N Korea, China, Venezuelan socialism, the NFL and extremist Christian evangelicals in Alabama.
3. N Korea’s test of an H-bomb as well as ballistic missiles has created an international crisis. For 25 years this crisis has been brewing but a real solution was always kicked down the road with diplomatic nonsense. It is not likely to be allowed to fester much longer this time by either the US or China. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley has suggested that UN sanctions have done about as much as they can, meaning the ball is now in the hands of China. Next in line after China is a military solution. On Wednesday, a Trump Executive Order essentially created a situation where China either solves the problem or forces a trade war with the US. Such a trade war with the US with likely throw China into recession and jeopardize the continued rule of the communist regime.
4. The German election results are being portrayed as a major shift but don’t expect much change in German domestic or foreign policy.
5. Obamacare repeal and replacement is once again likely to be decided, up or down, by a vote or two. A flurry of deal-making is under way as you read this.
6. The NFL is killing its Golden Goose with its support of some players disrespecting the flag and national anthem. But, the genie is out of the bottle and there is no way to go back to the status quo. This new fight will rage on…

Continue reading Trump takes on everybody and Obamacare revisited

In Brief

1. President Trump’s UN speech on Tuesday is widely anticipated and likely to be a major event. It will touch on numerous topics and signal many American priorities. Expect it to be controversial…but what else is new…
2. N Korea’s test of an H-bomb as well as ballistic missiles has created an international crisis. For 25 years this crisis has been brewing but a real solution was always kicked down the road with diplomatic nonsense. It is not likely to be allowed to fester much longer this time by either the US or China. Trump will certainly address the issue in his first speech to the UN General Assembly this week. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley has suggested that UN sanctions have done about as much as they can, meaning the ball is now in the hands of China. Next in line after China is a military solution.
3. A new poll by Reuters-Ipsos shows only 26% of Americans think memorials to Confederate leaders should be removed from public places. Most Democrats and African-Americans think they should be removed but the vast majority of Republicans and Independents disagree.
4. A Gallup report out today shows 70% of American dissatisfied with how the US is being governed. That number has changed little under Bush, Obama or Trump since the Great Recession began in 2008. The widespread dissatisfaction lays blame on many of our institutions including both political parties and DC in general.
5. The latest bombing in Britain, on London’s subway system, once again appears to be Islamic terrorism.

Continue reading Trump’s Upcoming UN Speech and More North Korean Provocations

Perspective

The White House, the federal bureaucracy, the governors and the local leaders are in sync with a shared goal of helping all the people of our great nation hurt by Harvey and Irma.

And today, we commemorate the 16th anniversary of 9/11/2001, another time the people of our great nation came together.

In Brief

1. Killer storm Irma ravaged Florida and continues its wrath moving into the southeastern states. Millions are without power and will be for days. All levels of government—local, state and federal– are mobilized to help. But lives will be shattered and we must all help.
2. N Korea’s test of an H-bomb as well as ballistic missiles has created an international crisis. For 25 years this crisis has been brewing but a real solution was always kicked down the road with diplomatic nonsense. It is not likely to be allowed to fester much longer this time by either the US or China. Led by the US, the UN Security Council is likely to vote today on new sanctions.
3. ISIS is on the verge of losing its geographic Caliphate but will remain a killer for years.
4. President Trump turned to “the art of the deal” both with DACA and with a hurricane relief, budget and debt ceiling deal. To the joy of some and horror of others…he led.
5. Hillary Clinton added to her list of people to blame for her defeat last year. In an interview on CBS Sunday Morning she blamed “white people”.

Continue reading Irma’s Devastation & Trump’s Art of the Deal

Perspective

Many in the US have come to think that America has lost its way…that the future is of decline, not growth… that things are getting worse, not better…that the “good old days” are in the past and never to return.

One who had convinced herself of that was Peggy Noonan, the famous writer and Wall Street Journal columnist. She learned a lesson this week that I have tried to convey for many years to all who would listen. Her column on Saturday September 2 ended with the truth.

“We are a great nation. We forget. But what happened in Texas reminded us. It said: My beloved America you’re not a mirage, you’re still here.”

Some of us forget. Others know the truth. We have many faults but no nation or people have ever been greater. And, the best is yet to come…with many ups and downs but ever closer to that “Shining City on a Hill”.

We will prevail over the KKK and Antifa…over Kim Jong-un and China…over Mother Nature’s fury…because prevail is what we do.

In Brief

1. N Korea’s test of an H-bomb as well as ballistic missiles has created an international crisis. For 25 years this crisis has been brewing but a real solution was always kicked down the road with diplomatic nonsense. It is not likely to be allowed to fester much longer this time by either the US or China.
2. Hurricane Harvey pummeled the Gulf coast of Texas causing tens of billions of dollars of damage. The flooding continues devastating the Houston area and much of east Texas and parts of Louisiana. Expect quick action by the Trump administration and Congress on funding for relief and rebuilding efforts. Relief efforts by the state, local and the federal governments will go on for years. Private and faith based groups will also be essential to getting devastated families and communities back on their feet.
3. As is often true real-world events like Hurricane Harvey and the N Korean H-bomb test change the political scene and narrative almost overnight. As you slip into fall take note of how much the political dialogue, news and reality has changed from just a few weeks ago.
4. Not only has the US policy of “strategic patience” practiced by the last 3 administrations been a failure but so too has China’s policy toward N Korea. China now faces the real threat of a trade embargo by the US if it continues to trade with and support the Kim regime.

Continue reading Harvey Heroes and North Korean Nukes

In Brief

1. Category 4 Hurricane Harvey pummeled the Gulf coast of Texas causing billions of dollars of damage, but thankfully few deaths. Much more flooding is certain. The flooding is devastating the Houston area and much of east Texas. It will not subside for several days. Rescues are occurring by the thousands. Expect quick action by the Trump administration and Congress on funding for relief and rebuilding efforts. Relief efforts by the state, local and the federal governments will go on for years. Private and faith based groups will also be essential to getting devastated families and communities back on their feet.
2. Controversial Chief Strategist Steve Bannon left the White House after a series of run-ins with new Chief-of-Staff, General John Kelly. His departure elicited positive reactions rather than negative reactions from Republicans by a 5 to 1 margin, but the most extreme right-wing partisans in Trump’s base were appalled.
3. China continues to become more authoritarian as well as to confront India in several geographic areas. Also, China’s flat bond-yield curve is signaling economic and financial trouble ahead.
4. A Gallup report last week showed that just 37% of Americans think the press “gets their facts straight”. Just 1 in 7 Republicans think they do so. The same study showed just 1 in 4 of all Americans have much confidence in newspapers or in the TV news.
5. Dr. Sebastian Gorka is the latest to depart the White House after confrontations with General Kelly. He was an effective foreign policy spokesperson for the President but was a close ally of recently departed Steve Bannon.

Continue reading Hurricane Harvey Devastates East Texas