Key Takeaways
1. The midterms will not be a Democratic Blue Wave. The Ds have lost momentum. But they are likely to take control of the House.
2. The voters are now very unhappy with Trump, the Republicans, but also the Democrats. Neither party is presenting a clear or appealing message.
3. The civil war between the traditional liberals, and the democratic socialists continues to tear the Democratic Party apart. The policies of the democratic socialists repulse many voters and will hurt the Ds somewhat in the midterms.
4. My current handicapping of the midterms continues to show no massive “Blue Wave” for the Ds or big gains for either party, but the Ds need to gain just three seats to take control of the House. As of today, the Ds have the edge in the polls and will likely gain 5-12 seats in the House. The Senate 53R-47D count will probably change little.
5. In the Iran War, Trump has shifted to economic warfare in the hopes of throwing the Iranian economy into turmoil. The Houthis in Yemen have gotten very aggressive in recent weeks and now jeopardize commerce through the Red Sea. Expect major changes in US actions in the Iran War after the midterms.
6. The US economy is very strong and gaining momentum. AI and related industries as well as US energy industries are showing major strength. Corporate earnings in general are at record highs and look to stay strong. The job market is very solid and adding jobs with none of the predicted fears of massive AI driven unemployment emerging so far.
Democratic Blue Wave or Muddy Water Victory?
Eight days to go! It looks now that the Ds will gain seats 5-12 seats in the House, down from my estimate last week of an 8-15 D seat gain, and take control of that chamber. I predict little change in the current 53R-47D Senate.
The Ds will “win” the midterms, but in a modest and unsatisfying way.
The 2026 midterms have different characteristics than most previous midterms. Over the last two to four years fundamental changes affecting the midterms, especially for the election of House members, have occurred.
Widespread redistricting/gerrymandering has markedly cut the number of House races likely to be competitive. Competitive seats are now probably just a dozen or two. But remember that the Ds need to net just three House seats to take control of that chamber.
By contrast, the Senate has many close races. We’ll see how those races break. As noted above, I do not expect major changes to the current 53R-47D split.
I’ll make my final predictions in the November 2 TR.
The D Blue Wave has stalled. The Rs and Trump are trying to reverse the wave with media emphasizing cultural issues and anti-socialism. They are also using Trump’s “bully pulpit” and numerous Trump rallies around the country. That “bully pulpit” and those rallies may or may not work.
The “Muddy Water Victory” label is caused by the fact that the next House will likely have a D majority. But in that majority Democratic caucus will be 10-20 uncontrollable democratic socialists/radical leftists. Good luck to the next Democratic Speaker.
Five factors are now dominating the outcome of the midterms. They are:
1. The affordability issue continues to dominate public concerns and is the biggest R problem. The Iran War is exacerbating this problem for the Rs. ADVANTAGE Ds
2. The Rs will spend far more money this year. It is now estimated that total ad spending for this midterm cycle will be more than the entire ’23-’24 Presidential cycle. Ponder that! ADVANTAGE Rs
3. The Rs have begun running a multifaceted media campaign with messaging against the growing radicalism and socialism of the Democratic Party. This is a new facet of the current midterm campaign and has become the biggest Democratic problem. ADVANTAGE Rs
4. Will the Rs do a substantially better job this year of getting out the vote (GOTV) than they usually do? If not, the Ds will continue to have an advantage. PROBABLY ADVANTAGE Ds.
5. A new late-breaking factor has emerged. Rs, especially Trump-hating Rs, are realizing that basic American values and cultural norms are at stake on November 3. R messaging highlights these facts. The D “Big Tent” party includes many socialists, many big government-high tax politicians, many antisemites, many open border advocates, and many candidates who hate America. These facts are increasing R turnout and probably decreasing D turnout among moderate D voters. ADVANTAGE Rs
The voters are now in control. Democracy is at work. We’ll know the results soon.
The Democrats and Republicans
With the election of Zohran Mamdani in NYC, other democratic socialist mayors in big cities, and numerous radical Ds winning primary victories this year, a battle is on for control of the Democratic party.
The most visible faces and voices of the Democratic Party are no longer the Clintons, Obama, or Biden. They are now Bernie Sanders, AOC, Mamdani, and other radical democratic socialists. Many of them hate America, its history and values. Many are looking for racial-ethnic spoils and reparations. Those ideas will not sit well with centrist Middle America.
By contrast, by far the biggest threat to the Rs for the midterms is the affordability crisis which carried over from the Biden-Harris years but is now completely owned by the Rs. The Iran War has exacerbated the affordability problem by pushing up gasoline prices. The cost of living is an albatross for the Republicans.
As noted above, I expect the Ds to “win” the midterms. But the win will be modest and create numerous problems for the Ds as they get ready for the ’28 Presidential election.
Are Pre-election Polls Accurate?
The simple answer is NO!
Roughly 65-75% of polls measuring a particular election are inaccurate and 25-35% are accurate. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling averages for individual races were 2% too Democratic in 2024. This year those averages appear to be too D by about 3%.
I was an active pollster for 30 years and have followed the polls daily since I retired. Polling is a nightmare these days with few Americans willing to be interviewed by phone or willing to fill out a questionnaire over the internet. And that problem is much worse among Republicans and conservatives. Far fewer of them are willing to be polled.
There are several dozen polls which do political polling in multiple states. I know which ones are mostly accurate and which ones are mostly inaccurate. When I do my analysis and make predictions, I put that knowledge to good use. A shorthand you can use on the election poll averages is to add 1.5 points to the R average and subtract 1.5 points from the D average.
The most difficult task for any pollster is to decide which of the hundreds of voters they interviewed is actually going to vote in the current election. There is always overreporting of who is going to vote.
Some pollsters do a good job of getting close to the real electorate and others do less well. That difference often leads to errors. But no one knows until AFTER the election how big turnout was going to be.
Onward to predictions next week.
Coming Tuchfarber Midterm Predictions
I will make final predictions for the ’26 midterms in the November 2 TR.
Recall my prediction accuracy.
· In the three years from 2023 to 2025 I made over 160 predictions and 97% were correct.
· In the 2024 election year predictions made on 3/4/24, I made twelve specific political predictions. All twelve were correct, including:
1. That Joe Biden would not be the D’s Presidential nominee.
2. That Trump would be the next President.
3. That the R’s would take the Senate majority.
4. That the R’s would retain House control.
5. That Hispanic voters would move strongly to the Rs.
6. That by year-end the Ds would be in a bitter ideological war between the traditional liberals and the radical leftists.
In the next TR, I will make 15 specific predictions in highly competitive races for the Senate, Governor, and the House. Mostly I will predict R wins, but some D wins as well. I am confident that a dozen or more of those 15 predictions will be correct. Be ready to bet on them if you are so inclined.
The Economy and Markets
Economic Data
· The CPI for September went up by a huge 0.6% and the year-over-year increase went up 3.7% because of the high petrol prices. It is certain that the inflation rate will come NOT down much until the Iran War ends and the flow of energy supplies out of the Middle East normalizes.
· NEW – Last week’s unemployment insurance claims, 194,000, stayed extremely low.
· NEW - Last week the S&P500 was down 0.5%, the NASDAQ was down 0.7%, and the Dow was up 0.4%. The modest changes conceal the fact that the markets were very volatile last week and are likely to remain so.
· NEW - The latest estimate for Q3 GDP from the Atlanta Fed GDPNOW is a strong +3.5%.
· Retail sales for Sept. were up a strong 0.8%.
· Industrial production for Sept. was up a strong 0.7%.
· NEW – Q3 earnings continue to be extremely strong. Corporate earnings are increasing dramatically across many industries but especially tech and energy. Those large and widespread increases are forecast to continue into 2027. That bodes well for stock prices over the next year but be aware that volatility will likely remain.
· NEW – The Fed meets this week. No change to the Fed Funds rate is likely as the Fed strives to avoid making major changes just before an election.
The US Economy Overall
UPDATE - The major stock market indices continue at or near record highs and remain volatile. The US job market remains positive and trends look positive. The fear of massive layoffs being caused by AI was clearly misguided and incorrect.
Overall, the economy looks positive. Corporate earnings have been extraordinarily strong, and it is certain they will continue that way for the 4th quarter. [Details on that point in future weeks.] Real economic growth in 2026 is now sure to be solid, and a 2027 recession is very unlikely. With historically high corporate earnings and a positive job picture, the US economy looks good, and the 2027 outlook is positive.
Global Watch Updates
Global Tidbits
· On Sunday October 25, Brazil held a run-off national election for President. This election is very important for Brazil, South America, and the US. It pits the anti-American, leftist current President Lula against a pro-American, rightist Flavio Bolsonaro. More on the results and implications next week.
· On Tuesday, Israel is holding an election for its parliament, the Knesset. Prime Minister Netanyahu is struggling to hold his majority. Israel has moved decidedly to the right because of Palestinian and Iranian attacks over recent decades. The next government is certain to be strongly right or center-right.
· Riots have consumed France. So far, the centrist Macron government has been unable to get them under control. The riots are being led by extreme leftists, anti-government unions, and looters eager to take advantage of the opportunity. We’ll see if the situation can be stabilized.
· China’s economic situation continued to worsen in September. Its exports are strong, but its domestic economy is very weak.
The Iran War
UPDATE - From the American perspective the Iran War has moved partially away from a major shooting war stage and away from a ceasefire/negotiations stage. It is now in an economic war stage where the US is trying to restrict economic activity in Iran to an extent that its leaders cannot accept and its people will not tolerate. But periodically shooting incidents flare up.
The US goal is now to almost completely cut off Iran’s access to the goods they need and the money they must have to pay salaries.
Similarly, but using different means, the Iranians are trying to create an economic and political crisis for the Trump administration which leads Trump to make major concessions to the Iranians, concessions he previously rejected.
Iran’s allies, the Houthis of Yemen, are now in a major war with the Saudis. Commerce on the Red Sea is again in danger. Major damage is being done to both countries, but Saudi assets are now at the greatest physical risk.
CURRENT REALITIES
Iran’s military has been mostly defeated. It has lost almost all its defensive capabilities against attacks. But Iran still has offensive military capabilities, especially missiles and drones. An important consideration is that Iran can still do major damage to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, to the Gulf Arab countries, and to US bases in the region. The US and its allies now have too few sophisticated defensive weapons, such as Patriot missiles, left to completely defeat the missile attacks of which Iran is still capable.
I predict that there will be numerous major changes made by Trump in the US approach to the wars against Iran and the Houthis shortly after the midterms. Trump has been playing domestic political games for months ahead of the midterms. For Trump, the priorities in the Iran War will change to ending/winning the war as soon as possible.
The Status of the Russia-Ukraine War
UPDATE - Over the last year the Russia-Ukraine War has gradually shifted against the Russians and Putin.
A summary of the Russia-Ukraine War:
· Russia is now mostly losing the war militarily and economically, but no win is coming for either side soon.
· The ground war is stalemated with neither side gaining more than a few square miles here and there.
· Both sides are escalating the missile and drone war and doing increasing damage in the other country.
· Russia’s ground offensives have failed with large manpower losses for them. Casualties have been unsustainably high.
· Russia has been increasing so-called grey-zone hybrid war tactics on Ukraine’s European NATO supporters to get them to cut that support. So far, those Russian attacks have backfired and increased the support of Ukraine.
BE CAUTIOUS IN JUDGING PRESENT US-UKRAINE RELATIONS. THE GAME WILL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY AFTER NOV. 3. TRUMP WILL THEN BE PUSHING PUTIN, ZELENSKYI, AND THE EUROPEANS VERY AGGRESSIVELY TO END THE WAR!
Ideas to Remember
1. The US is the world’s dominant power. China and Russia are declining in power relative to the US.
2. Take Trump seriously but not literally. Remember he is always setting up the next negotiation. His off-the-cuff comments frequently cause major confusion.
3. The Republicans have become the party of the working-class and middle-middle class. The democratic socialists are now a serious threat to the Ds.
4. In politics, it’s the economy, stupid. The average household will be able to balance their budget or else the party in power will be punished.
Political Psychiatry 30-Day Test
With daily disturbing news, take a deep breath and ask if that news will matter much in 30 days or so. Only rarely will it be important. So, ignore it, and lower your blood pressure.
My primary goal is to present accurate facts, analyses, and predictions. Another goal is to live in neither the Land of Chicken Little, where the sky is always falling, nor in Fantasy Utopia Land, where everything is always going to be fine.
Predictions – Methods & Standards
My method – gather accurate facts, analyze them with no biases, and make accurate predictions.
The Tuchfarber Standard – make predictions on important issues when I’m over 80% convinced the prediction will be correct.
My written 248 predictions in the TR over the last four years have been 97% correct.
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Al Tuchfarber PhD -- Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati
Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the country’s most accurate, while directing the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati for four decades. He is an engaging, informative, and dynamic speaker. Al has published well over 100 publications about politics, political-economics, society, and research methods.
Dr. Tuchfarber is available for consultation, a talk in your town, or a Zoom meeting.
