Economic Optimism for 2022

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In-Brief

1. America is likely to have good economic growth this year! And no stagflation. Inflation will slow gradually as the global supply chain untwists itself.
2. Senator Joe Manchin is the Person-of-the-Year and the Patriot-of-the-Year.
3. If Russia launches an invasion of the Ukraine, the US will respond very strongly, but not unilaterally with our own troops. The reactions will be political, financial, and economic, and will be devastating for Russia and its oligarchs. The previous weakness of President Biden in Afghanistan, and the newness of German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, will force them to be resolute against Putin.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 6%. November’s unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.6% to 4.2%. Ironically, many Americans think we are in a recession. We are NOT in a recession. In fact, the US economy is booming.
5. But high inflation is badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022.
6. Do NOT panic over the new omicron strain of Covid. As of today, it looks at worst to cause moderate health and economic problems. In the first weeks of the omicron strain spread across the country only 1 in 500 Americans contracting it have died. But be careful and protect yourself if you have other serious health problems.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

The Alternative to Left & Right Spin. No Lies or Fake News Here

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A Christmas Offer

Dear Subscribers,
Feel free to share your issues of the TR with friends or relative until the end of the year. Just forward your issue to them. Perhaps they’ll enjoy it and subscribe.

The subscription price will go up on January 3, 2022 to $99 for one-year and $175 for two-years.

Happy Holidays,
Al

In-Brief

1. Happy New Year!
2. The Biden Build Back Better [BBB] bill is dead in the Senate, mainly due to the common sense of two Democrats – Joe Manchin of WV and Krysten Sinema of AZ. Thank you and Happy New Year to Manchin and Sinema.
3. If Russia launches a major invasion of the Ukraine, the US will respond very strongly, but not unilaterally with our own troops. The reactions will be political, financial, and economic, and will be very strong. The previous weakness of President Biden in Afghanistan, and the newness of German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, will force them to be resolute against Putin.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 6%. November’s unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.6% to 4.2%. Ironically, many Americans think we are in a recession. We are NOT in a recession. In fact, the US economy is booming.
5. But high inflation is badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022.
6. Do NOT panic over the new omicron strain of Covid. As of today, it looks at worst to cause moderate health and economic problems. But be careful and protect yourself if you have other serious health problems. Help is on the way from Pfizer and Merck in the form of anti-virus pills.

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

The Alternative to Left & Right Spin. No Lies or Fake News Here

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A Christmas Offer

Dear Subscribers,
Feel free to share your issues of the TR with friends or relative until the end of the year. Just forward your issue to them. Perhaps they’ll enjoy it and subscribe.

Happy Holidays,
Al

In-Brief

1. Have a Merry Christmas!
2. The Biden Build Back Better [BBB] bill is dead in the Senate, mainly due to the common sense of two Democrats – Joe Manchin of WV and Krysten Sinema of AZ. Senator Manchin stated definitely just yesterday he will not vote for it. Without his vote it is dead. A thank you and Merry Christmas to Manchin and Sinema.
3. If Russia launches a major invasion of the Ukraine, the US will respond very strongly, but not unilaterally with our own troops. The reactions will be political, financial, and economic, and will be very strong. The previous weakness of President Biden in Afghanistan, and the newness of German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, will force them to be resolute against Putin.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 6%, with the 4^th quarter being very strong. US labor shortages are widespread. November’s unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.6% to 4.2%. Ironically, a large majority of Americans think we are in a recession. We are NOT in a recession. In fact, the US economy is booming.
5. But high inflation is badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022.
6. Do NOT panic over the new Omicron strain of Covid. As of today, it looks at worst to cause moderate health and economic problems. But be careful and protect yourself if you have other serious health problems.

Biden Loses in the Polls, Courts, and Congress

The Alternative to Left & Right Spin. No Lies or Fake News Here

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A Christmas Offer

Dear Subscribers,
Feel free to share your issues of the TR with friends or relative until the end of the year. Just forward your issue to them. Perhaps they’ll enjoy it and subscribe.

Happy Holidays,
Al

In-Brief

1. It appears that Biden’s Build Back Better [BBB] bill is dying in the Senate, mainly due to the common sense of two Democrats – Joe Manchin of WV and Krysten Sinema of AZ. If they stick to their positions, they will be reviled by the Progressives but go down in history as American heroes.
2. If Russia launches a major invasion of the Ukraine, the US will respond very strongly, but not unilaterally with our own troops. The reactions will be political, financial, and economic, and will be very strong. The previous weakness of President Biden in Afghanistan, and the brand-new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, will be forced by internal politics to be resolute against Putin.
3. The Biden vaccine mandates are collapsing before our eyes as the American people demand their Constitution rights and freedoms be upheld. Numerous federal courts across the land are upholding those rights and freedoms, and some state courts are weighing in.
4. Numerous new polls and analyses of them by Democratic strategists show Democrats likely to suffer huge losses in the 2022 midterm elections.
5. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 6%. US labor shortages are widespread. November unemployment fell sharply from 4.6% to 4.2%. Ironically, a large majority of Americans think we are in a recession. We are NOT in a recession. In fact, the US economy is booming.
6. But high inflation is hurting millions of American families.
7. Do NOT panic over the new Omicron strain of Covid. Get accurate facts! As of today, it looks at worst to be a moderate health and economic problem.
8. China’s economic, financial, energy, and self-inflicted political problems continue, and they are making it far worse by abandoning market capitalism for socialism. Two of China’s biggest property developers and debtors are in default along with numerous other firms.

Biden Will Be Blamed for Mass Starvation in Afghanistan

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In-Brief

1. Millions of Afghan men, women, and children will be dying of starvation over the next six months. The blame for that will fall mostly on President Biden for the catastrophic policy mistakes he made in ordering the US pull-out from Afghanistan.
2. The Biden vaccine mandates are collapsing before our eyes as the American people demand their Constitution rights and freedoms be upheld. Numerous federal courts across the land are upholding those rights and freedoms.
3. The American people are well on their way toward taking back the Republic. And it is not just conservatives... it is being led by, of all people, by Bill Maher, a Democrat... and now by thousands of others. There are several hundred million of us – Independents, Democrats, and Republicans – fighting back and we are now winning.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 6%. US labor shortages are widespread. Job growth in November was 210,000, below expectations. But the unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.6% to 4.2%. Ironically, a large majority of Americans think we are in a recession. We are NOT in a recession. In fact, the US economy is booming.
5. Do NOT panic over the new Omicron strain of Covid. Get accurate facts! As of today, nobody knows enough to say for sure how big a problem Omicron is.
6. China’s economic, financial, energy, and self-inflicted political problems continue, and they are making it far worse by abandoning market capitalism for socialism. Be very careful if you are an investor in China’s short-term or medium-term economic future.

Biden Running in 2024? Get Real!

Democratic Bloodbath at Nov. 2 Elections

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In-Brief

1. The White House says Joe Biden will run for re-nomination and re-election in 2024. Betting AGAINST that occurring is a safe bet.
2. Open your eyes to what really caused dozens of Christmas parade participants to be mowed down on the streets of Waukesha Wisconsin. It was the identity politics of the Democratic Party and especially its leftist WOKE wing who refuse to protect the people from criminals.
3. The American people are well on their way towards taking back the Republic. And it is not just conservatives … it is being led by, of all people, by Bill Maher, the Democrat. There are several hundred million of us – Independents, Democrats, and Republicans – fighting back and we are now winning.
4. The $2T Biden Build Back Better Bill passed in the House with no Republican votes. It is a long way with from final passage and continues in deep trouble as it is tied up in a battle between radical-progressives Ds and moderate Ds. The bill is not fully paid-for according to the Congressional Budget Office. The internal battle among Democrats will determine if that bill passes. Senators Manchin and Sinema are in control at this point, but other Democrats will be major players.
5. Kyle Rittenhouse was acquitted on all counts. The “system” is starting to work again, with justice being served. Radical-progressive justice is not justice. It is anarchy. Also, three white men in Georgia were convicted of murdering Ahmaud Arbery by a jury of 11 whites and one black. That too was justice done. There was definitive evidence in both cases.
6. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 5-6%. US labor shortages are widespread. Job growth in October was a very strong 531,000, well above expectations. The unemployment rate fell from 4.8% to 4.6%. Ironically, a large majority of Americans think we are in a recession. We are NOT in a recession.
7. The Biden vaccine mandate, which was scheduled to go into effect on January 4, and which would have thrown the entire US labor market into chaos, now appears unlikely to ever be implemented or enforced. The federal courts are highly likely to rule it unconstitutional and declare that the federal government does NOT have the power to issue such a decree.
8. Do NOT panic over the new Omicron strain of Covid. Get accurate facts! I’ll try to help.
9. China’s economic, financial, energy, and self-inflicted political problems continue, and they are making it far worse by abandoning market capitalism for socialism. Be very careful if you are an investor in China’s medium term economic future.

America Is Roaring Back!

Democratic Bloodbath at Nov. 2 Elections

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In-Brief

1. Sit back and think long and hard about how fortunate you are to live in the world’s greatest country with the world’s greatest, most generous, and fairest people. Really think about it!
2. The American people are well on their way towards taking back the Republic. And it is not just conservatives … it is being led by Bill Maher, the Democrat. It is several hundred million of us – Independents, Democrats, and Republicans.
3. The $2T Biden Build Back Better Bill passed in the House with no Republican votes. It is a long way with from final passage and continues in deep trouble as it is tied up in a battle between radical-progressives Ds and moderate Ds. The bill is not fully paid-for according to the Congressional Budget Office. The internal battle among Democrats will determine if that bill passes. Senators Manchin and Sinema are in control at this point.
4. Kyle Rittenhouse was acquitted on all counts. The “system” is starting to work again, with justice being served. Radical-progressive justice is not justice. It is anarchy.
5. The inflation spike continues, but energy prices are now falling rapidly.
6. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 5-6%. US labor shortages are widespread. Job growth in October was a very strong 531,000, well above expectations. The unemployment rate fell from 4.8% to 4.6%. Ironically, a large majority of Americans think we are in a recession. We are NOT in a recession.
7. The Biden vaccine mandate, which was scheduled to go into effect on January 4, and which would have thrown the entire US labor market into chaos, now appears unlikely to ever be implemented or enforced. The federal courts are likely to rule it both unconstitutional and illegal.
8. China’s economic, financial, energy, and self-inflicted political problems continue, and they are making it far worse by abandoning market capitalism for socialism.
9. A NEW PREDICTION – The social, cultural, and political revolution that is already well underway in America is astounding liberals and conservatives alike. Perhaps the best way to put it is that mainstream Americans of most stripes – Rs, Ds, and Is -- but not the radical-left, are taking back the country where we live. Watch carefully what is happening in your community … talk to your friends and neighbors.

The simple truth of the matter is that the 70 to 80% of us who love this country have saved it from the Woke elitists and radical-progressives. Hold your head high. YOU ARE WINNING! KEEP IT GOING!

Predictions Confirmed

Democratic Bloodbath at Nov. 2 Elections

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In-Brief

1. Inflation continues to spike. Polls show Americans believe it is now the most important US problem.
2. The $1.75T social infrastructure bill continues in trouble and is tied up in a battle between radical-progressives Ds and moderate Ds. The internal battle among Democrats will determine if that bill passes. Senators Manchin and Sinema are in control at this point.
3. The US southern border continues in chaos and is a humanitarian nightmare. It is being swarmed by tens of thousands of refugees from Haiti and over 100 other counties. Tens of thousands more Haitians and others are now working their way through Central America and Mexico.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 5-6%. US labor shortages are widespread. Job growth in October was a very strong 531,000, well above expectations. The unemployment rate fell from 4.8% to 4.6%. Ironically a large majority of Americans think we are in a recession.
5. The Biden vaccine mandate, which is scheduled now to go into effect on January 4, would throw the entire US labor market into chaos, which in-turn Would throw the US into recession. But a week ago, the 5^th Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily stayed the mandate. The same court reaffirmed its position Friday. The court stated that the Biden’ OSHA order “is fatally flawed on its own terms.” The vaccine mandate’s future is now very uncertain, and probably will be totally thrown out by the 5^th circuit and other courts.
6. China’s economic, financial, energy, and self-inflicted political problems continue, and they may be resuming their massive borrowing to “buy” growth, the very mistake that got them in the financial fix they are now in.
7. A NEW PREDICTION – The social, cultural, and political revolution that is already well underway in America is going to astound liberals and conservatives alike. Perhaps the best way to put it is that mainstream Americans of most stripes – Rs, Ds, and Is -- but not the radical-left, are taking back the country where we live. Watch carefully what is happening in your community... listen to your friends and neighbors... regardless of whether it is in rural, urban, or suburban America.

The simple truth of the matter is that the 70 to 80% of us who love this country have saved it from the Woke elitists and radical-progressives. Hold your head high. YOU ARE WINNING BIG TIME!

Biden Flounders

Democratic Bloodbath at Nov. 2 Elections

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In-Brief

1. The Democrats, leftists, and advocates of wokeness suffered crushing defeats at Tuesday’s elections … in VA, NJ, and in most states, even in other liberal states.
2. The $1.2T bi-partisan physical infrastructure bill passed, but the $3.5T social infrastructure bill continue in trouble and is tied up in a battle between radical-progressives Ds and moderate Ds. The $3.5T social infrastructure/reconciliation bill will pass only if it is reduced to about $1.75T and maybe not even with that reduction. The internal battle among Democrats will determine if that bill passes.
3. The US southern border continues in chaos and is a humanitarian nightmare. It is being swarmed by tens of thousands of refugees from Haiti and over 100 other counties. Tens of thousands more Haitians and others are now working their way through Central America and Mexico.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 5-6%. US labor shortages are widespread. Job growth in October was a very strong 531,000, well above expectations. Inflation spiked earlier in the summer and continues as a serious concern. The unemployment rate fell from 4.8% to 4.6%.
5. The Biden vaccine mandate, which is scheduled now to go into effect on January 4, could throw the entire US labor market into chaos, which in-turn could throw the US into recession. If tens of millions are fired or quit because of the vaccination mandates ordered by Biden we could face economic disaster. [On Saturday, the 5^th Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily stayed the mandate.]
6. Covid cases and deaths are now falling rapidly in the US but increasing again around the world. A new anti-Covid pill from Pfizer, which has shown great promise, may help end the pandemic.
7. China’s economic, financial, energy, and self-inflicted political problems continue.

Biden Flounders

The Alternative to Left & Right Spin

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In-Brief

1. Both the $1.2T bi-partisan physical infrastructure bill and the $3.5T social infrastructure bill continue in trouble and are tied up in a battle between radical-progressives Ds and moderate Ds. It is not clear if either will pass. The $3.5T social infrastructure will pass only if it is reduced to about $1.75T and maybe not even with that reduction. The internal battle among Democrats will determine if the $1.2T physical infrastructure bill passes. Neither may pass.
2. The US southern border continues in chaos and is a humanitarian nightmare. It is being swarmed by tens of thousands of refugees from Haiti and over 100 other counties. Tens of thousands more Haitians and others are now working their way through Central America and Mexico.
3. Afghanistan continues to be a violent hellhole. The economy is collapsing. Americans are still at risk, about 400 according to the Pentagon, as are millions of Afghans.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 5%. US labor shortages are widespread. Inflation tames slightly for the last three months but spiked earlier in the summer. The unemployment rate fell from 5.2% to 4.8%.
5. The Biden vaccine mandate may throw the entire US labor market into chaos, which in-turn could throw the US into recession. If tens of millions are fired or quit because of the vaccination mandates ordered by Biden we could face economic disaster. But the Biden order has yet to be officially announced and may never emerge.
6. Covid cases and deaths are now falling rapidly in the US.

Tuchfarber Predictions

Last week I spoke to three groups and made the following specific predictions to them. I decided to share them with you.

7. China’s average GDP growth rate will fall to 2% or less by 2024. [Down from 5-7% now.]
8. Republicans will be far more pleased than Democrats about the results of the Nov. 2 elections this Tuesday – VA Governor and House, and NJ Governor.
9. Mainstream American resistance and the counter-revolution against Wokeness, CRT, Cancel Culture, Virtue signaling, BLM, Censorship, etc. is now much stronger than the Woke revolution and growing every week.
10. Fall 2021 will be marked as the beginning of the collapse of the climate change/anti-fossil fuel movement.
11. Joe Biden will NOT be President on July 4, 2022, and probably not on January 1, 2022.