The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings Expected to Dominate This Week’s Politics

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In-Brief

1. The Wednesday evening VP debate between Harris and Pence was vastly better than the Biden – Trump debate. Both handled themselves well. Pence was the winner because Harris came off a bit snide and refused to answer some important questions.
2. The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg unsettled the 2020 election campaign in numerous ways. It appears that the Senate will confirm Amy Coney Barrett, Trump’s nominee, with hearings scheduled to begin on Oct. 12.
3. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. If you are elderly and in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
4. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators, including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% in July to 7.9% in September, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

Another 2020 Shock – The President and First Lady Contract Covid-19

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In-Brief

1. President Trump and the First Lady have Covid-19. More chaos in 2020.
2. The Tuesday evening debate between Biden and Trump was train wreck … it was awful. It did little to help the voters make up their minds on whom to support. Biden held up well for the 90 minutes, a plus for him.
3. The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg scrambles the 2020 election campaign in numerous ways. It appears that the Senate will confirm Amy Coney Barrett, Trump’s nominee, with hearings scheduled to begin on Oct. 12.
4. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. If you are elderly and in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators, including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% in July to 7.9% in September, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

Tuesday’s Debate Turns Race into Referendum on Trump’s Style and Performance v. Biden’s Physical and Mental Capacity

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In-Brief

1. The Tuesday evening debate between Biden and Trump will, in effect, be a referendum on both, not just of Trump. The referendum on Trump is based on his four years a President. For Biden, it is based on whether he has the physical stamina and mental capacity to serve as President. Be prepared for a major shake-up in the race if Biden performs poorly physically or mentally.
2. The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg scrambles the 2020 election campaign in numerous ways. It appears that the Senate will confirm Amy Coney Barrett, Trump’s nominee, just before or just after the Nov. 3 election.
3. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
4. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators, including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4%, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month.
5. The battle over replacing Justice Ginsburg is likely to increase voter turnout for both parties and is almost sure to lead to ugly and dangerous violence.
6. Support for the Blacks Lives Matter movement is falling significantly, even among Black-Americans.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

Ginsburg Death Scrambles Election Handicapping

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In-Brief

1. The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg scrambles the 2020 election campaign in numerous ways.
2. At this point, about six weeks before the election, the two factors that were most likely to swing the election one way or the other were the voters’ perception of Biden’s physical and mental health and whether the fear around the country continues to grow in the suburbs over the widespread violence and crime in our cities. To those two has been added the uncertainty and contentiousness of whether a Justice to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be nominated and confirmed before the election.
3. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
4. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4%, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month.
5. The battle over replacing Justice Ginsburg is likely to increase voter turnout for both parties and will is almost sure to lead to ugly and dangerous actions.
6. Support for the Blacks Lives Matter movement is falling significantly. Most voters believe an attack on a cop ought to be a “hate crime” and punished with higher penalties.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

Biden’s Health & the Extent of Urban Violence & Crime Are Keys to Election Victor

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In-Brief

1. At this point, about 50 days before the election, the two factors most likely to swing the election one way or the other are the voters’ perception of Biden’s physical and mental health and whether the fear around the country continues to grow in the suburbs over the widespread violence and crime in our cities. Other factors will be important, but those two look to dominate.
2. Covid case rates are falling. The death rate has plummeted. Many of the new cases are among young people who have stopped social distancing. Some European countries are now starting to see a new increase in cases, a worrisome sign.
3. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
4. The US economy is rapidly re-opening and began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services.  Almost all the indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4%, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings have been added to the US Job Openings report.
5. Now is the point that the “swing voters” will begin to pay attention to the Presidential race. They will determine the winner.

<FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

Labor Day and the Real Campaign Starts

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In-Brief

1. The Republican Convention was much more positive and upbeat than the Democratic Convention, but neither convention had a major impact on the voters.
2. Joe Biden clearly did NOT get a polling “bounce” from his convention. Neither did Trump.
3. But the professional betters around the globe betting on the US Presidential race now rate it as a dead-heat, down from a large Biden advantage.
4. Covid case rates had risen recently but are starting to fall again. The death rate has plummeted. Most of the new cases are among young people who have stopped social distancing. Some European countries are now starting to see a new increase in cases, a worrisome sign.
5. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
6. The US economy is being re-opened and began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services.  Almost all the indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4%, a huge decline. The economy is clearly rapidly growing now.
7. HAPPY LABOR DAY!

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

The Trump – Biden Battle is On

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In-Brief

1. The Republican Convention was much more positive and upbeat than the Democratic Convention.
2. Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden gave good nomination acceptance speeches to the relief of their supporters.
3. Joe Biden clearly did NOT get a polling “bounce” from his convention. Early indications are that Trump might have gotten a bounce, but it is too early to say for sure.
4. Covid case rates had risen recently but are starting to fall again. The death rate has plummeted. Most of the new cases are among young people who have stopped social distancing. Some European countries are now starting to see a new increase in cases, a worrisome sign
5. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
6. The US economy is being re-opened and began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services.  Almost all the indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The economy is clearly rapidly growing now.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

Trump’s Hurdles to Clear

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In-Brief

1. The Democrats held a mostly boring convention with an endless parade of recorded speeches from politicians and celebrities. Its TV ratings were weak, as was expected.
2. Joe Biden gave a good nomination acceptance speech to the relief of his supporters.
3. Covid case rates had risen recently but are starting to fall again. The death rate has plummeted. Most of the new cases are among young people who have stopped social distancing.
4. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. If you are in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
5. The US economy is being re-opened and began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services.  The economy is clearly rapidly growing now.
6. Like Biden, President Trump has many political hurdles to clear if he is to win on November 3.
7. Expect the Republican convention to be the polar opposite of the Democratic convention in tone, style, messaging, and substance.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

Trump v. Harris for President?

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In-Brief

1. Kamala Harris is running for both VP and President in Waiting.
2. She brings some strong positives but many more negatives to the ticket.
3. Covid case rates had risen recently but are starting to fall again. The death rate has plummeted. Most of the new cases are among young people who have stopped social distancing.
4. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation. Continue to protect yourself.
5. The US economy is being gradually re-opened and began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators.  Almost two million jobs were added in July and the economy is clearly growing now.
6. Voters are increasingly concerned about the widespread violence in the country. It is becoming an important voting issue.
7. Peace in the Middle-East took one step forward and one backward last week.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address -- 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

Does Biden Dare Skip the Debates?

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In-Brief

1. Can Biden politically afford to skip the Presidential debates?
2. President Trump has taken unprecedented actions to deal with the pandemic and recession.
3. Covid case rates had risen recently but are starting to fall again. The death rate has plummeted. Most of the new cases are among young people who have stopped social distancing.
4. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation. Continue to protect yourself.
5. The US economy is being gradually re-opened and began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators.  Almost two million jobs were added in July and the economy is clearly growing now.
6. Americans have turned against the widespread violence and crime that began after the George Floyd killing.
7. A large majority blames the media for the near-hysterical political divisions in the country.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”
Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”