When Does Our Fear of Covid-19 Go Away?

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In-Brief

1. Our fear of Covid-19 mostly goes away only when a number of important changes occur.
2. The re-opening of the American economy and society is accelerating but it varies tremendously across the country and even within states. Public opinion is shifting rapidly in favor of re-opening.
3. Joe Biden heads toward wrapping up a majority of the delegates needed to nominate him.
4. The US economy is being slowly re-opened and will probably begin a brisk recovery in the 3^rd quarter after a terrible 2^nd Both government spending and Fed monetary actions against the economic crisis have been unprecedented. They continue to increase. The stock markets signal a relatively quick rebound.
5. China last week began taking steps to crush the autonomy of Hong Kong. They are going to destroy the city-state as an international financial hub.

Biden Won’t Be Next President

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In-Brief

1. The panic and virulent phase of the Covid-19 pandemic is ending, and we are moving into Phase 2 with gradual re-openings of society and the economy, but with health risks still serious.
2. Hard documentary evidence now is in the hands of Attorney General Barr and DOJ prosecutors that National Security Advisor, General Flynn, was purposely entrapped into perjury by the Obama era FBI.
3. Joe Biden will not be the next US President and probably will not win the Democratic nomination.
4. Globalization will not stop but will be dramatically changed to the detriment of China.
5. The US economy will be slowly re-opened and will probably begin a brisk recovery in the 3^rd quarter after a terrible 2^nd. Both government spending and Fed monetary actions against the economic crisis have been unprecedented. They continue to increase.

Re-opening Begins in Some States

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Readers and Subscribers,
To get full access to the Tuchfarber Report, a paid subscription is now required. See the Subscription info. Also, there is information on how to activate your subscription once you pay. Make sure you follow those instructions.

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In-Brief

1. Planning is underway for the re-opening of American society and the economy. The rollout will begin quite soon but the actual re-opening will be phased and slow with considerable variation between different parts of the country.
2. Donald Trump and Joe Biden both have substantial political strengths and opportunities supporting their electability.
3. China continues under attack for its lying about the Wuhan coronavirus. US public opinion has now turned dramatically against China and its leader, President Xi.
4. The US economy will be slowly re-opened and will probably begin a brisk recovery in the 3^rd quarter after a terrible 2^nd Both government spending and Fed monetary actions against the economic crisis have been unprecedented.

Re-openings Start Soon

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Al

In-Brief

1. Planning is underway for the re-opening of American society and the economy. The rollout will begin quite soon but the actual re-opening will be phased and slow with considerable variation between different parts of the country.
2. We will get past the health and economic crises created by the coronavirus pandemic when our fear of getting the disease or giving it to an old or sick loved one recedes markedly. Then the governors will re-open our states and cities. Also crucially important is when we gain confidence that the doctors can save us if we get a serious case of the disease.
3. Donald Trump and Joe Biden both have substantial political weaknesses and threats to their electability.
4. China’s economy fell by 7% from the last quarter of 2019, its first such decline in over 40 years. This was caused by the Wuhan Chinese coronavirus.
5. The US economy will be slowly re-opened and will probably begin a brisk recovery in the 3^rd quarter after a terrible 2^nd

EASTER & REBIRTH!

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In-Brief

1. Happy Easter! Rebirth is near.
2. We will get past the health and economic crises created by the coronavirus pandemic when our fear of getting the disease or giving it to an old or sick loved one recedes markedly. Then the governors will re-open our states and cities.
3. Bernie Sanders drops out, but doesn’t give up hope of being the nominee.
4. Trump will have the serious political burden of a recession but has many advantages over Biden. The former VP comes across as an old man in early senility, leading many Democrats to hope for a different nominee.
5. The US economy is headed for a deep recession, but probably a short one.

PROTECT YOURSELF AND YOUR LOVED ONES - KEEP YOUR SOCIAL DISTANCE!; When the Fear Ends Is When the Economy Recovers

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Thanks,
Al

In-Brief

1. Fear is what keeps our economy closed. The end of extreme fear will open it.
2. We will get past the health and economic crises created by the coronavirus pandemic only when our fear of getting the disease or giving it to an old or sick loved one recedes markedly. The key to that is effective treatment, dozens of which are currently being tested.
3. Joe Biden’s performance during the early stages of the coronavirus crisis has been weak and confused. He comes across as an old man in early senility.
4. The US economy is headed for a very difficult 2^nd quarter

PROTECT YOURSELF AND YOUR LOVED ONES - KEEP YOUR SOCIAL DISTANCE!; Trump Administration Fights Wars Against Coronavirus and Recession

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Thanks,
Al

In-Brief

1. President Trump, his administration, and the Democrats and Republicans in Congress are fighting two wars – one against the coronavirus and another against recession.
2. Joe Biden’s performance during the early stages of the coronavirus crisis has been weak and confused. He is starting to be questioned as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Andrew Cuomo has emerged as a possible choice, but what about Sanders?
3. COVID-19 spreads dangerously around the world. The risks are now modest for most people in the US, but much higher for those over 70 or with other illnesses. Pay close attention the public health officials but NOT to the hysterical media.

PROTECT YOURSELF AND YOUR LOVED ONES - KEEP YOUR SOCIAL DISTANCE!; Biden Wins March 17 Primaries & Is Likely Nominee, But with a Caveat; Steep Economic Downturn Coming

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NOTE: If you are having trouble logging in, it may be that your subscription has run out. Please renew. If problems persist, contact me at al.tuchfarber@gmail.com

Readers and Subscribers,
To get full access to the Tuchfarber Report, a paid subscription is now required. See the Subscription info. Also, there is information on how to activate your subscription once you pay. Make sure you follow those instructions.

All of you now subscribed, paid or unpaid, will continue to get free versions of the TR Headlines and In-Brief sections, but only paid subscribers will get the In-Depth sections.

DON’T MISS A SINGLE ISSUE!

Thanks,
Al

In-Brief

1. The Tuchfarber Report will contain a weekly report and update on the coronavirus [Covid-19] outbreak until its health, economic, and political effects are greatly reduced.
2. The Covid-19 epidemic will probably cause a US recession. Expect a very bad 2^nd quarter and a 3^rd quarter rebound.
3. Biden is now heavily favored for the Democratic nomination but does not have it locked up. Paths remain for Sanders, Hillary, Michelle Obama, and perhaps others because the Covid-19 pandemic threatens to change everything.
4. COVID-19 spreads dangerously around the world. The risks are now modest for most people in the US, but much higher for those over 70 or with other illnesses. Pay close attention the public health officials but NOT to the hysterical media.