Iran Blinks – US & Trump Win

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1. Trump won the recent battle with Iran’s mullahs and probably the “war“ against their regime.
2. The odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
3. Big Picture Context: The US and China are now in a battle for world dominance. The US will prevail because China’s Economic Miracle is ending.

Scores of New 2020 Predictions Made; 71 of 72 Predictions Made for 2019 were Correct; War with Iran?

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2019 Predictions Report: 71 of 72 Correct [99%]; A Senate Trial for Trump? – What is Really Going On

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In-Brief

1. 1. 99% of the Tuchfarber Report predictions for 2019 were correct.
   2. Raw politics is behind the maneuvering over a Senate trial of Trump.
   3. “Merry Christmas” as a political indicator.
   4. THE JOKE: “Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it, misdiagnosing it and then applying the wrong remedies.” THIS IS A REPEATED JOKE FROM JULY, BUT IT IS TOO ACCURATE NOT TO USE PERIODICALLY.

Merry Christmas!

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In-Brief

1. Merry Christmas! Count your blessings and those of the world’s people.
2. Trump impeachment confusion reigns …
3. The Democrats hold another circular firing squad debate.
4. China will crackdown in Hong Kong in late January or in February.
5. The odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
6. Big Picture Context: China’s halcyon days of growth are behind it.
7. The Joke: “The three stages of man: He believe in Santa Claus. He doesn’t believe in Santa Clause. He is Santa Claus.”

Impeach Trump! Maybe.

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In-Brief

1. Impeach Trump? Follow the politics at the local congressional district level. You may be surprised.
2. The US and world have had a remarkable week in terms of economics, politics, and policy that will have major consequences for years.
3. The British election resulted in a massive victory for the Conservatives and a rejection of socialism. That election fundamentally realigned British politics.
4. The odds of the House impeaching Trump fall a bit, but the odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
5. Big Picture Context: American society is more polarized now than in three generations.
6. The Insight: “Be careful what you wish for …”

Impeach Trump! Maybe.

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In-Brief

1. Impeach Trump? Follow the politics.
2. The behavior of the Democrats unites the Republicans.
3. The Democratic race enters a new uncertain phase with Bloomberg in and Harris out.
4. The British election looks to be a win for the Conservatives.
5. The odds of the House impeaching Trump remain above 50-50, but the odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
6. Big Picture Context: The US and China are now in a battle for world dominance. The US will prevail because China’s Economic Miracle is ending.
7. The Insight: “It is better to know some of the questions than all of the answers.” James Thurber

Whither the Democrats on Impeachment?

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In-Brief

1. Do the Democrats impeach Trump or just censure him? Follow the politics.
2. The Democratic race for the nomination is in chaos and in transition to a new phase.
3. Hong Kong developments indicate China’s economic weakness.
4. The odds of the House impeaching Trump remain above 50-50, but the odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
5. Big Picture Context: The Republicans are now the middle-class party while the Democratic coalition includes the poor, minorities, upscale women, and the rich.
6. The Insight: “If I die, I forgive you; if I live, we’ll see.” Spanish proverb

House Impeachment Hearings Give Pelosi Only Bad Choices

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In-Brief

1. The House impeachment hearings against Trump are failing to convince the American voters they need to convince – the independents. They are also bringing no House Republicans to vote for impeachment. Worse for the Democrats, they are making it more likely Democrats in the Senate will vote “not guilty.”
2. Mayor Pete Buttigieg vaults into the 1^st tier of Democratic contenders but also into the line of fire. He continues to do horribly with the key African-American base in the Democratic Party.
3. Mainland China continues its totalitarian crackdown on Hong Kong.
4. The odds of the House impeaching Trump remain above 50-50 but are falling because of the Democrat’s failure to yet demonstrate any “crime.” The odds are increasing that the Democrats will “censure” but not impeach Trump as that “punishes” The President without setting-up a Senate trial. The odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
5. The Insights:
   “Trust in Allah but tie your camel.” Arabian proverb.
   “Trust but verify.” Ronald Reagan

House Impeachment Hearings Change Few Minds

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In-Brief

1. >Be judicious in expending too much of your time or psychic energy on the House impeachment inquiry. So far, the hearings have been boring, with fewer than 5% of Americans tuning in. Few voters appear to be changing their evaluation of Trump in either a negative or positive way.
2. Democrats are wringing their hands about the ability of their potential nominees to defeat Trump. Consequently, Deval Patrick has jumped in and Michael Bloomberg also appears to be in.
3. Trump has no serious contender for the Republican nomination.
4. China is between a rock and a hard place with the violence in Hong Kong and the need for a trade deal with the US.
5. The odds of the House impeaching Trump remain high but are falling because of the Democrat’s failure to yet demonstrate any “crime.” The odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
6. The Joke: “There is no human problem which could not be solved if people would simply do as I advise.” Gore Vidal [Too many of us think that way.]

House Impeachment Activity is Meaningless "Theater"

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In-Brief

1. Be judicious in expending too much of your time or psychic energy on the House impeachment inquiry.
2. Democrats engage in handwringing about the ability of their potential nominees to defeat Trump. Consequently, Michael Bloomberg appears to be jumping into the race. Others may join in.
3. Climate Change – an existential threat to humans?
4. China’s “Emperor” Xi says lack of innovation is the country’s Achilles heel.
5. The odds of the House impeaching Trump remain high, but the odds of the Senate removing Trump remain at ZERO.
6. The Insight: “Nothing Ever Goes Away.” Barry Commoner