Confused About Trump - Look to Reagan and Jackson; The Big Six Swing States for 2020 Lean Conservative

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In-Brief

1. Think about Presidents Jackson and Reagan when you try to figure out President Trump.
2. The six states that were won or lost by 2% or less in the 2016 Presidential race have all trended toward the conservatives over the last 20 years.
3. Making it into the September debates challenges the Democrats.
4. China’s rapidly increasing debt jeopardizes its future economic success.
5. THE INSIGHT: “If you are not confused, you aren’t paying attention.”

The Polls Are Misleading; Recession on the Way?

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In-Brief

1. Be very cautious about believing that the enormously volatile bond markets are signaling a recession.
2. It is way too early to put much faith in the head-on-head trial heat polls of Trump v. the Democratic contenders or on the national or state polls on who is ahead for the Democratic nomination.
3. Hong Kong’s future is bleak. That bleak future could become the world’s future.
4. China’s clearly stated plans are to dominate the globe by mid-century.
5. THE JOKE – “And the Lord said unto John, ‘Come forth and you will receive eternal life.’ But John came fifth and won a toaster.”

What New Gun Controls?; Democrats Attack White Voters They Must Win Back

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In-Brief

1. Trump pushes “intelligent” gun sale background checks.
2. In a mysterious strategy, Democrats attack white voters they need to win back in 2020.
3. China misunderstands American politics.
4. Hong Kong’s future is bleak.
5. THE WEEK’S INSIGHT – from the message board outside a church in Cincinnati: “Tweet unto others what you want tweeted unto you.”

Democratic Debate Debacle; Obama Policies Under Attack

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In-Brief

1. The July debates see Obama, Biden, and their policies under attack.
2. Biden survives the debate while Harris and Booker take big risks.
3. Numerous Democratic candidates’ actions make Trump’s re-election more likely.
4. China makes a serious error in slowing the trade talks with the US.
5. THE JOKE: Last Thursday’s Salt and Pepper joke in the WSJ was clever. It portrayed a political advisor telling a candidate... “The latest numbers are in. More voters want to drop out than run.”

Desperation & Opportunity at Democratic Debates; Monumental Budget Deal Between Democrats & Trump

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In-Brief

1. A major budget deal between the Ds and Rs takes default and government shutdowns off the table for 2019 and 2020.
2. The Democratic debates on Tuesday and Wednesday will be a time of desperation to survive for some and an opportunity to soar for others. They are likely to get ugly and have political fireworks.
3. The Supreme Court allows Defense Dept. funds to be spent on border wall.
4. Who were the winners and losers in the Mueller hearings?
5. The American Dream lives!
6. THE JOKE: “A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing well.”

War with Iran?; Joe Biden’s Strategic Dilemma

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In-Brief

1. A Democratic analyst’s view on the dangers to the Ds if they nominate a radical.
2. War with Iran? Their strategic disaster.
3. Biden’s dilemma... stay establishment liberal or go left.
4. Two important votes in the House presage the political future.
5. China slips economically and is in a bad position for trade negotiations with the US.
6. THE JOKE: “The consensus after an election is that 100% of Americans think 50% are out of their minds.”

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Leads the Brat Pack; Losing Ross Perot

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In-Brief

1. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads the Brat Pack in deeply offensive attacks on Speaker Pelosi.
2. We lost a unique and valuable American with the death of Ross Perot.
3. Good times -- record high employment, stock market records, and interest rate cuts to come.
4. THE JOKE: “People who want to share their religious and political views with you... almost never want you to share yours with them.”

Harris Soars & Biden’s Woes Continue; Additional Predictions for 2019

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In-Brief

1. Kamala Harris surges near the top.
2. Joe Biden continues his gaffe-laden trail of political self-destruction.
3. Eight new predictions for 2019.
4. China loses to Hong Kong’s people in the current confrontation, but Hong Kong is doomed to totalitarian rule by China.
5. Understanding Chief Justice Robert’s enigmatic leadership of the Supreme Court.
6. THE JOKE: “What do you call a Russia procrastinator? ...Putinoff!”

Midyear 2019 Predictions Update; Democratic Debates Become a Circular Firing Squad

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In-Brief

1. Over 95% of the Tuchfarber Report predictions for 2019 are correct so far.
2. The Democratic debates last week were a circular firing squad with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump being the big winners.
3. Because of the debate debacle, the odds a Democrat will win the Presidency in 2020 drops to 14%, down from 21% last month.
4. Biden and Sanders were diminished by the debates and Kamala Harris gained stature.
5. Trump and China’s Xi extended trade talks in an effort to agree on an acceptable deal.
6. THE JOKE: “Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it, misdiagnosing it and then applying the wrong remedies.”

Coming Next Week

• Additional predictions for the rest of 2019
• Further analysis on impact of Democratic debates
   

The Demise and Collapse of America’s Enemies; Here Come the Democratic Debates

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Al

In-Brief

1. A shooting war with Iran is averted for now.
2. The high stakes Democratic debates begin this week with the promise of being chaotic, reveling, and raucous.
3. Joe Biden has another terrible week with major controversies around his friendships with southern Democratic segregationist Senators and accusations of political corruption on ABC News involving the VP and his son, Hunter.
4. China loses to Hong Kong’s people in the current confrontation, but Hong Kong is doomed to totalitarian rule by China.
5. Mayor Pete Buttigieg faces a crisis in South Bend as an officer shoots and kills a black citizen. Meanwhile, a NY woman has accused Donald Trump of raping her in the 1990s in a department store.
6. THE JOKE: “I think we should get rid of democracy. All in favor raise your hand.”

Coming Next Week

• The Mid-year Report on Accuracy of the Seventy-two Tuchfarber Predictions for 2019
• The Winners and Losers in the Democratic Debates
• Trade Deal or Extended Trade War with China?