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Al

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

1. After a great deal of hysteria from Democrats and Republicans, the family separation issue appears to have changed little politically.
2. Good signs from N Korea.
3. Turnout of voters in November… neither party has a big advantage.
4. Is Trump changing the Republican Party? Yes and No.
5. The Supreme Court makes gerrymandering cases harder to win.

EXPECT A SPECIAL REPORT LATER THIS WEEK ON THE ACCURACY OF MY 2018 PREDICTIONS
Continue reading Political Damage Over Family Separations?; A Very Good Sign From North Korea; Which Party Gets More Voters Out in November?

Readers and Subscribers,

All of you now subscribed will continue to get free versions of the TR Headlines and In-Brief sections. To get the details and the In-Depth section, a paid subscription will be required starting July 2nd. Please see the last page of this blog for details.

Thanks,
Al

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

1. The Trump-Kim summit accomplished about all that could be expected, but the heavy lifting lies ahead and will take several years. Success is by no means guaranteed, but the summit itself is progress compared to the war that seemed likely just months ago.
2. The DOJ Inspector General’s report on the way the DOJ and FBI handled the Clinton email case creates many big losers and some winners.
3. The trade war of the US and Trump against the world heats up.
4. No Democratic blue tidal way is suggested by the primaries so far.
5. PREDICTION: The Democrats will gain 5 to 15 US House seats this fall, almost all in coastal, metropolitan districts. They will not take control from the Republicans.
6. PREDICTION: The Republicans will gain 4 to 7 US Senate seats, almost all in “heartland” states. They will add to their current razor-thin majority.

Continue reading Trump-Kim Summit: So Far – So Good, But the Proof is in the Pudding; Big Winners and Losers in Inspector General’s Report; Trade War Escalated by Trump

Readers and Subscribers,

All of you now subscribed will continue to get free versions of the TR Headlines and In-Brief sections indefinitely. To get the details and the In-Depth section, a paid subscription will be required starting this July. Please see the last page of this blog for details.

Thanks,
Al

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

1. The Trump-Kim summit starts tonight and tomorrow.
2. Success is by no means guaranteed, but the summit itself is progress.
3. No Democratic blue tidal way is suggested by the primaries so far.
4. Trump can pardon himself, but he, and all Presidents, are NOT above the law.
5. PREDICTION: The Democrats will gain 5 to 15 US House seats this fall, almost all in coastal, metropolitan districts. They will not take control from the Republicans.
6. PREDICTION: The Republicans will gain 4 to 7 US Senate seats, almost all in “heartland” states. They will add to their current razor-thin majority.

Continue reading Trump – Kim Summit Tomorrow; Keep Hopes and Fears in Check; No Democratic Blue Wave Yet Obvious; Can Trump Pardon Himself?

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

1. The Trump-Kim summit is back on after Kim blusters, Trump cancels, and Kim blinks.
2. Trump’s trade policies are erratic, incoherent, and flawed.
3. Watch the key primaries tomorrow… especially California.
4. China manipulates its stock markets by preventing sell orders. Investors beware!
5. PREDICTION: The Democrats will gain 5 to 15 US House seats this fall, almost all in coastal, metropolitan districts. They will not take control from the Republicans.
6. PREDICTION: The Republicans will gain 4 to 7 US Senate seats, almost all in “heartland” states. They will add to their current razor-thin majority.

Continue reading Trump – Kim Summit On; Misguided Trade Wars; More Jobs!

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

1. Trump cancels summit with Kim because of N Korean provocations. Kim blinks.
2. Will it be OK for the Trump FBI to spy on the 2020 Democratic nominee?
3. Primaries in TX, GA, AR, and KY provided more evidence that a Democratic Establishment versus Progressives civil war is underway. Both sides are winning primaries and fighting for ascendance.
4. Switching from being a swing/battleground state, Ohio now should be counted as “leans” Republican…a “red” state.
5. PREDICTION: The Democrats will gain 5 to 15 US House seats this fall, almost all in coastal, metropolitan districts.
6. PREDICTION: The Republicans will gain 4 to 7 US Senate seats, almost all in “heartland” states.

Continue reading Trump Cancels Summit with Kim… Re-Scheduled?; OK for Trump to Spy on Democrats in 2020?; Ohio Now a “Red” State

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

1. No surprise! N Korea returns to threats, posturing, and bluster.
2. The CIA and/or FBI was spying on the Trump campaign before he was even nominated.
3. A China-US trade “consensus” is announced that appears very favorable to the US.
4. Primaries in PA. NE, OR, and ID provided more evidence that a Democratic Establishment versus Progressives civil war is underway.
5. PREDICTION: The Democrats will gain 5 to 15 US House seats this fall.
6. PREDICTION: The Republicans will gain 4 to 7 US Senate seats.

Continue reading N Korea Blusters and Threatens; The CIA or FBI Spies on Trump Campaign; China-US Trade “Consensus”

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

1. Trump ends nuclear deal with Iran and returns sanctions.
2. Three Korean-Americans freed by N Korea in good-will gesture before June 12 summit.
3. Iran’s attack on Israel threatens major war.
4. Primaries in OH, NC, IN, and WV provided more evidence that a Democratic Blue Tidal Wave is NOT forming.
5. PREDICTION: The Democrats will gain 5 to 15 US House seats this fall.
6. PREDICTION: The Republicans will gain 4 to 7 US Senate seats.

Continue reading Trump Trashes Iran Deal; Iran Attacks Israel; Korean-Americans Welcomed Home; Primary Election Results Encouraging for Republicans

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

1. The unemployment rate in the US falls to less than 4 percent…lowest since Bill Clinton was President.
2. Kanye West is being viciously attacked and threatened with physical and financial retribution for his “bromance” with Trump.
3. The main targets for negative campaign ads this year will be Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and Robert Mueller.
4. Should an additional special counsel be named to investigate Hillary Clinton?
5. PREDICTION: The Democrats will gain 5 to 15 US House seats this fall.
6. PREDICTION: The Republicans will gain 4 to 7 US Senate seats. CHANGE: Senate gain prediction now 4 to 7, up from 2 to 7.

Continue reading Unemployment at Record Lows; Kanye West Threatened; 2018 Campaign Messaging – Negative On – Trump, Hillary, Pelosi & Mueller

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

1. N Korea is capitulating to US and Chinese demands because it has no other viable choice.
2. The “bromance” of Kanye West and other black entertainers with President Trump threatens the Democratic Party’s lock on the black vote.
3. Nancy Pelosi recognizes that talk of impeaching Trump is back-firing on the Democrats.
4. The Rasmussen Poll documents that likely voters trust neither the political news they are getting, nor the polls on which much of that news is based.
5. The Trump Foreign Policy Doctrine includes a commitment not to tell other nations how to live, govern, or worship. That has major consequences for the Korean negotiations.
6. PREDICTIONS: The Democrats will gain 5 to 15 US House seats this fall. But they will lose 2 to 7 US Senate seats.

Continue reading N Korea Caves to Trump & XI; Kanye West Threatens Dems; Pelosi – No Impeachment Talk

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

1. N Korea is capitulating to US and Chinese demands because it has no other viable choice.
2. Comey memos partially exonerate Trump on collusion with Russia and obstruction of justice.
3. Comey now reviled by Democrats and Republicans.
4. Criminal prosecution of Comey likely.
5. China becomes more totalitarian and warns on finances.
6. Hillary joins Trump and Pelosi as 2018’s “boogie men.”

Continue reading N Korea Capitulating?; Comey Helps Vindicate Trump; All Learn to Dislike Comey