Tuchfarber Report

In Brief

1. Tax reform is very likely yet this year or early next. The House bill passed 227-205 with no Democratic votes. The Senate bill will change multiple times before it is voted on. If both houses of Congress pass bills, a Conference Committee will make substantial further changes. So, stay tuned…
2. The partisan coalitions of groups that make up our two parties have changed markedly with the Republicans becoming the white working-class and middle-class party and the Democrats—a bi-modal party of both the rich and of minorities and the poor. These changes have caused a dramatic shift in which states are safe Republican states and which are safe Democratic states. This week’s issue starts a 4-PART series about our changing political geography.
3. The wages of the sins of sex abuse and sexual harassment are coming home to roost in Hollywood, DC and throughout the land. The genie is out of the bottle and will not go quietly back inside. Expect many of the guilty and their enablers to be in the spotlight for months or years to come and for our politics and society to suffer shock after shock.

Continue reading Tax Cuts Even More Likely; Sex, Politics, and Abuse; What Are The Democratic States, Which Are Republican, and The Future?

In Brief

1. Tax reform is likely yet this year or early next. The House bill will change before any final vote. The Senate bill will change multiple times. If both pass in their houses of Congress, a Conference Committee will make substantial further changes. So, stay tuned…
2. The partisan coalitions of groups that make up our two parties have changed markedly with the Republicans becoming the white working-class and middle-class party and the Democrats—a bi-modal party of both the rich and of minorities and the poor. These changes will have a dramatic impact on our politics for years and are the main cause of Donald Trump being elected President.
3. President Trump is on an important 12-day trip to Asia focusing on four-things: 1. assistance from China on reining in N Korea, 2. negotiating stronger trade deals throughout the region, 3. strengthening defense cooperation with allies and 4. demonstrating the US commitment to East and SE Asia.
4. The Virginia election results and those in NJ and around the country were what one would expect. The sky is not falling on the Republicans. And, Gillespie would have lost badly in VA even if he had fully embraced Trump. VA is now a Democratic state and likely to get more so.

Continue reading Tax Cuts Likely – How and When, Who Are Democratic Voters Now, Who Are Republicans, Trump In Asia, and Virginia Election Analysis Nonsense

In Brief

1. Former DNC head, Donna Brazile, will publish a new book this week describing exactly how Hillary Clinton rigged the nomination process to defeat Bernie Sanders. This revelation will heat up an already brutal war between the newer Progressive-wing and Clinton-Mainstream-Labor -wing of the Democratic Party.
2. President Trump is on critically important 12-day trip to Asia focusing on four-things: 1. assistance from China on reining in N Korea, 2. negotiating stronger trade deals throughout the region, 3. strengthening defense cooperation with allies and 4. demonstrating, by attendance at the East Asia Summit, the US commitment to East and SE Asia.
3. If things go as planned the Republicans will announced a revised version of their tax reform plan early this week. It will address some of the initial complaints but cannot address all of them. So far R unity in the House and Senate have both been strong but the lobbying will be tense and heated. The bill will change quite a few times. It is likely to pass by early 2018 and perhaps as early as Christmas.
4. Watch the Tuesday elections in Virginia for some early clues about the 2018 Congressional races. The Ds should win in VA easily, as well as NJ, but the races in VA have gotten far closer than most anticipated.

Continue reading Trump On Crucial Asia Visit, Proof From DNC Head Clinton Stole Nomination From Sanders, Tax Cuts Likely, But When?

In Brief

1. As claimed by Trump, the Trump-Russia collusion case was based on fake news. Turns out it was paid for by the Clinton campaign and the DNC according to their own lawyer. The collusion now appears to be between Clinton and the Russians both in 2016 and throughout Clinton’s Secretary of State tenure.
2. President Xi of China has decreed, in effect, that China will now be a totalitarian-socialist state. This is a dramatic shift from the authoritarian- capitalist state it has been since 1979. The change will have massive effects in China and across the globe.
3. If things go on schedule the Republican tax package and legislation will be released this Wednesday and be enacted before the end of the year. There will still be a great deal of negotiating and severe doubts about passage in the House because of battles over state and local taxes and other issues. Momentum is there but disputes abound.
4. A new Pew research report shows political polarization in the US to be very high. Few Democrats or Republicans are, respectively, to the right of the average Republican or left of the average Democrat. Don’t expect that polarization to wane anytime soon, perhaps not for decades.

Continue reading China’s Totalitarian Regime, Russia Collusion – DNC and Clinton Paid for Trump Dossier, Tax Cuts Likely, and A Deeply Polarized Nation

In Brief

1. Tax cuts and tax reform are now domestic issue #1 for the Trump and Republican agendas. They will focus on corporate rate cuts to foster job creation and growth and on middle-class tax cuts and simplified filing. The passage last week of the Budget Resolution by the Senate and strong House support for accepting it makes tax reform and tax cuts much more likely this year.
2. China is in the midst of a crucial Party Congress [every 5 years] that will re-elect Xi Jinping as party leader. Xi is, in effect, becoming China’s new emperor. This Congress will have very substantial implications for Chinese, regional and world politics. The results of the Congress will likely set the stage for major economic changes, more authoritarian rule, a pull-back from a market oriented economy, substantial slowing of GDP growth and major Chinese actions on N Korea’s Kim regime
3. The DNC purges Sanders and Ellison supporters in favor of Clinton supporters.
4. The leader of China’s Central Bank warns of a potential Minsky Moment…the sudden collapse of the prices of over-leveraged assets. He especially warns of high corporate debt and rapidly increasing household debt.
5. Sexual predators in Hollywood and elsewhere are being identified and being challenged. Many are called. Many will fall… Who is next?

Continue reading Tax Cuts Now Much More Likely, China’s New Emperor, DNC Purge of Sanders Supporters, and Warnings About China’s Asset Bubbles

In Brief

1. Tax cuts and tax reform are now domestic issue #1 for the Trump and Republican agendas. They will focus on corporate rate cuts to foster job creation and growth and on middle-class tax cuts and simplified filing.
2. China is in the midst of a crucial Party Congress [every 5 years] that will re-elect Xi Jinping as party leader. Xi is, in effect, becoming China’s new emperor. This Congress will have very substantial implications for Chinese, regional and world politics. The results of the Congress will likely set the stage for major economic changes, more authoritarian rule, a pull-back from a market oriented economy, substantial slowing of GDP growth and major Chinese actions on N Korea’s Kim regime
3. Obamacare gets a substantial makeover through regulatory action.
4. President Trump has decided not to certify Iran’s compliance with the Obama/Kerry nuclear deal sending the next set of decisions to Congress.
5. Sexual predators in Hollywood and elsewhere get called out. Who is next?

Continue reading Tax Cuts, China’s New Emperor, The Iran Deal, Obamacare’s Demise, and Sexual Predators

In Brief

1. Tax cuts and tax reform are now domestic issue #1 for the Trump and Republican agendas. They will focus on corporate rate cuts to foster job creation and growth and on middle-class tax cuts and simplified filing.
2. China is ramping up for a crucial Party Congress [every 5 years] on Oct 18 to re-elect Xi Jinping as party leader. This Congress will have very substantial implications for Chinese, regional and world politics. The results of the Congress will likely set the stage for major economic reform, substantial slowing of GDP growth and major Chinese actions on N Korea’s Kim regime
3. “Bad cops” Trump and Haley, “good cop” Tillerson and “tough cop” Mattis confuse many.
4. The NFL has been killing its Golden Goose of a money-making juggernaut with its support of some players disrespecting the flag and national anthem. It is too late to reverse some of the financial and PR carnage. New survey shows the collapse of the sport’s favorability.
5. The deaths and carnage from the Las Vegas shootings are creating a new dynamic in the gun-control debate and policy changes are likely, including some supported by the NRA.
6. New forecasts on tax reform and Obamacare.

Continue reading Mass Murder In Las Vegas and the NFL Self-Destructs

In Brief

1. Tax cuts and tax reform are now domestic issue #1 for the Trump and Republican agendas.
2. China is ramping up for a crucial Party Congress [every 5 years] on Oct 18 to re-elect Xi Jinping as party leader. This Congress will have very substantial implications for Chinese, regional and world politics, including the N Korean crisis.
3. Everyone needs to remember that the white working-class is the key swing voter group for 2018 and 2020 and many Democrats don’t seem to realize it or be willing to stop driving them away.
4. The loss of Trump’s candidate in AL is a defeat for the President and diminishes his clout with Republicans in tight races. It is, however, a relatively minor blow soon to be overrun by other events and news.
5. Obamacare repeal and replacement self-destructed for a 2nd time. But, repeal or major changes to it are essentially inevitable as it is structurally and financially unsustainable.
6. The NFL has been killing its Golden Goose of a money-making juggernaut with its support of some players disrespecting the flag and national anthem. It is too late to reverse some of the financial and PR carnage.
7. President Trump and the San Juan PR mayor might both want to tone things down quite a bit.

Continue reading Obamacare Repeal Fails Again and Tax Cuts Take the Spotlight while the NFL Scrambles and Fumbles

In Brief

1. President Trump’s UN speech on Tuesday was forceful, well-delivered and historically important. Few in the press have reported it accurately.
2. Last week Trump took on battles with what seemed like the entire planet. Battles are raging with N Korea, China, Venezuelan socialism, the NFL and extremist Christian evangelicals in Alabama.
3. N Korea’s test of an H-bomb as well as ballistic missiles has created an international crisis. For 25 years this crisis has been brewing but a real solution was always kicked down the road with diplomatic nonsense. It is not likely to be allowed to fester much longer this time by either the US or China. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley has suggested that UN sanctions have done about as much as they can, meaning the ball is now in the hands of China. Next in line after China is a military solution. On Wednesday, a Trump Executive Order essentially created a situation where China either solves the problem or forces a trade war with the US. Such a trade war with the US with likely throw China into recession and jeopardize the continued rule of the communist regime.
4. The German election results are being portrayed as a major shift but don’t expect much change in German domestic or foreign policy.
5. Obamacare repeal and replacement is once again likely to be decided, up or down, by a vote or two. A flurry of deal-making is under way as you read this.
6. The NFL is killing its Golden Goose with its support of some players disrespecting the flag and national anthem. But, the genie is out of the bottle and there is no way to go back to the status quo. This new fight will rage on…

Continue reading Trump takes on everybody and Obamacare revisited

In Brief

1. President Trump’s UN speech on Tuesday is widely anticipated and likely to be a major event. It will touch on numerous topics and signal many American priorities. Expect it to be controversial…but what else is new…
2. N Korea’s test of an H-bomb as well as ballistic missiles has created an international crisis. For 25 years this crisis has been brewing but a real solution was always kicked down the road with diplomatic nonsense. It is not likely to be allowed to fester much longer this time by either the US or China. Trump will certainly address the issue in his first speech to the UN General Assembly this week. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley has suggested that UN sanctions have done about as much as they can, meaning the ball is now in the hands of China. Next in line after China is a military solution.
3. A new poll by Reuters-Ipsos shows only 26% of Americans think memorials to Confederate leaders should be removed from public places. Most Democrats and African-Americans think they should be removed but the vast majority of Republicans and Independents disagree.
4. A Gallup report out today shows 70% of American dissatisfied with how the US is being governed. That number has changed little under Bush, Obama or Trump since the Great Recession began in 2008. The widespread dissatisfaction lays blame on many of our institutions including both political parties and DC in general.
5. The latest bombing in Britain, on London’s subway system, once again appears to be Islamic terrorism.

Continue reading Trump’s Upcoming UN Speech and More North Korean Provocations