Tuchfarber Report

In Brief

1. Trump’s speech at Davos surprised many, having the expected America First emphasis, but, also, a measured presentation and no incendiary comments. It embraced free trade as long as predatory trade is prevented.
2. Will there be big political impact for Ds or Rs in November elections from the recent or any near-term government shut-down? Not likely!
3. Watch voter’s answers to the “right direction-wrong track” polling question [direction of the country question] if you want to handicap who will win in November.
4. Gallup Poll-Knight Foundation study—more Americans have a negative view of the media [44%], than have a positive view [33%].
5. The politics around the DACA – border wall debate is complex, but a deal is likely by early spring.
6. Another voice on China’s coming debt crisis raises fears of a collapse.

Continue reading A Surprising Trump at Davos; DACA Deal Complexities; Democratic Wave?; Americans Have Negative View of Media; Grandstanders in the Senate

In Brief

For his performance in the 1^st year in office President Trump gets an A on domestic legislation and policy…an A on foreign and defense policy… and a D on tone and style.

Big political impact for Ds or Rs in November elections from government shut-down? Unlikely.

Gallup Poll I —Media failing in its responsibility to American democracy.

Gallup Poll II –Trump approval likely higher than reported.

Another voice on China’s coming debt crisis.

Expect political and legal earthquakes from US documents soon to be de-classified.

New prediction—likelihood of Trump being impeached and removed from office—less than 1%.

Continue reading Grading President Trump; Government Shut-Down; Media Fails our Democracy; Who Actually Colluded with the Russians?; Trump Impeached?

In Brief

1. Hawaii under attack! By Trump?
2. Don’t get your hopes too high, but negotiation and the Olympics are the next steps on the Korean peninsula, not war.
3. Trump’s language? Often unwise!
4. Gallup Poll— for entire year of 2017– 42% Independents; 29% Democrats; 27% Republicans. Democratic landslide in November 2018? No indication of that from this key metric.
5. Oprah for President in 2020? A sloppy ill-timed announcement.
6. Steve Bannon fired at Breitbart.

Continue reading N Korean Threat Lessens – Olympics… Not War… Next Month; S***-Holes… Trump and Posturing Politicians; Hawaii Under Attack!; Oprah for President; Bannon Out at Breitbart

In Brief

1. Government shutdown? Trump & Schumer at war over– DACA, border wall, military and social spending
2. Are you ready for endless investigations by Congress, the DOJ and the FBI? Better be.
3. Republican legislative priorities for 2018—infrastructure…immigration reform… NOT welfare or entitlement reform.
4. Don’t get your hopes too high, but negotiation is the next step on the Korean peninsula.
5. China schedules meeting to give “Emperor” Xi more power while its leaders worry about debt, shadow banking risks, widespread poverty and pollution.
6. Steve Bannon destroyed his political stature last week and will never regain it.

Continue reading Trump v Schumer: Budget-DACA Duel; Bannon Implodes; Kim Blinks?; Investigations and Witch Hunts Galore; China’s Leaders Fret Over Debt, Shadow Banking, Poverty, and Pollution

A STANDARD FOR SUCCESS – I’ll give myself a passing grade if 80% or more prove to be correct.
None of you will like all my predictions and some of you will dislike many of them. Even I don’t like some of them. The appropriate metric isn’t like or dis-like, but accuracy. This is something much of the media seems to have forgotten.

REPORTING — I’ll report the accuracy of these predictions to you at mid-year and at the end of the year.
2017 PREDICTIONS — The accuracy in 2017 was 22 of 25… 88% correct.
Continue reading 2018 Predictions

BELOW ARE THE PREDICTIONS MADE IN MY JANUARY 2, 2017 BLOG.

I’ll promise to give myself a passing grade if 80% or more proved to be correct.

I also indicated that… none of you will like all my predictions and some of you will dislike many of them. Even I don’t like some of them. The appropriate metric isn’t like or dis-like but accuracy. This is something much of the media seems to have forgotten.
Continue reading Final Check – 2017 Predictions

In Brief

1. The major Republican tax cuts and reform bill has been finalized and signed by President Trump. Ninety percent of US middle-class households will have their taxes reduced noticeably starting in February.
2. The Tax Bill essentially eviscerates the non-Medicaid part of Obamacare by eliminating the requirements that all have some form of health insurance. Between 10 and 20 million households will be freed from paying a high tax penalty from not having such coverage or the even greater expense of paying for very costly and unwanted health insurance.
3. A blunder by one side or the other could set off a major war with N Korea but neither side wants that outcome…for either it would be a catastrophe.
4. Predictions the Republicans will be devastated in the November 2018 elections are foolishly premature.

Continue reading Larger Pay Checks Definitely Coming; Obamacare Insurance Mandate Ends; War with North Korea Possible… But Not Likely

In Brief

1. The major Republican tax cuts and reform bill has been finalized with passage planned for this week. Trump signing it by Christmas is virtually certain. As many as 90% of US households will have their taxes reduced noticeably starting in February.
2. The Tax bill essentially eviscerates the non-Medicaid part of Obamacare by eliminating the requirements that all have some form of health insurance. Between 10 and 20 million households will be freed from paying a high tax penalty from not having such coverage or the even greater expense of paying for very costly and unwanted health insurance.
3. Revelations about the sins of sex abuse and sexual harassment will just keep on confronting the land. Expect many more surprises next year.
4. Special Counsel Mueller, the FBI and DOJ are all now under their own clouds of bias and wrong-doing. Congressional investigators are breathing down their necks and 2018 promises endless inquiries into their potential political corruption.
5. Moore, Bannon and Trump all lost in Alabama.

Continue reading Tax Reform… Christmas Present; Obamacare Gutted; Sex, Politics, and Society… Unanticipated Consequences; Mueller, FBI and DOJ Under Attack; 2018: Lessons from Political History and 2017; Alabama Speaks

In Brief

1. Major tax reform nears. A Senate-House Conference Committee is working to resolve the differences between the bills. Be prepared for surprising changes. Passage by Christmas now looks likely.
2. Revelations about the sins of sex abuse and sexual harassment will just keep on confronting the land. Expect many more surprises. Who will be the judges and juries? What are the rules and standards? Will the hysteria extend to other forms of “sin”? Beware ye who live in glass houses as public hysteria is not easily controlled.
3. Special Counsel Mueller, the FBI and DOJ are all now under their own clouds of bias and wrong-doing. It will be difficult for Mueller to get any conviction from a jury on any charge that has a partisan political aspect to it.
4. The Trump announcement of a move of the American embassy to Jerusalem is just a confirmation of old policy and has manifested only sputtering protest in Palestine.
5. The International Monetary Fund [IMF] reports that China’s banks have insufficient capital and face rapidly mounting credit risks.

Continue reading Tax Reform… Almost Sure; Sex, Politics and Society… People in Glass Houses Should be Careful Where They Throw Stones; Special Counsel Mueller… FBI and DOJ Under Their Own Clouds; Embassy to Jerusalem… Days of a Little Rage

In Brief

1. Major tax reform nears. The Senate tax bill passed 51-49 with no Democratic votes. As the houses of Congress passed different bills, a Conference Committee will resolve the differences but is also almost sure to make substantial further changes. So, stay tuned…be prepared to be surprised…much can and will change. Passage by Christmas now looks likely.
2. Fake news from ABC on Friday about the implications of General Flynn’s guilty plea gets their reporter suspended without pay after causing billions in worldwide financial market losses.
3. The partisan coalitions of groups that make up our two parties have changed markedly with the Republicans becoming the white working-class and middle-class party and the Democrats—a bi-modal party of both the rich and of minorities and the poor. These changes have caused a dramatic shift in which states are safe Republican states and which are safe Democratic states. This week’s issue continues a 4-PART series about our changing political geography with a focus on substantive change in the Great Lakes and Midwest states of PA…OH…MI…WI…and IA.
4. The sins of sex abuse and sexual harassment just keep on confronting the land…and many more of the guilty will fall…but which ones? Likely next targets are the protectors and enablers of the guilty.
5. North Korea launches its heaviest, most threatening missile.
6. China becomes more and more authoritarian requiring its tech companies and US tech companies to help it monitor its people in Big Brother fashion. The US and Europe push back against Chinese abuse of its World Trade Organization privileges.

Continue reading Tax Reform… Almost Sure; Sex, Politics and Crisis… More Coming; Fake News Punished; Major Political Change… The Great Lakes States; North Korean Threat Increases