In-Brief

1. It is not clear yet whether President Trump or the Democrats will control the school-shooting debate. Trump is pushing the debate toward one of safety, away from the gun control versus 2^nd Amendment rights battle.
2. Notwithstanding which side controls the debate, history suggests only modest policy changes at the national level are likely. More changes are likely in Florida and some other states.
3. Does Trump want a global trade war, or is this a feint or posturing?
4. China has a new “Emperor” and catastrophic financial problems.

Continue reading Where to Now on Protecting Students and the American People?; Global Trade War?; The Chinese “Emperor” and Developing Financial Abyss

In-Brief

1. It is not clear yet whether President Trump or the Parkland students and the Democrats will control the school-shooting debate. It will not be the NRA.
2. Notwithstanding which side controls the debate, history suggests only modest policy changes at the national level are likely. More changes are likely in Florida and some other states.
3. Partisan political gerrymandering is a hot topic just now with numerous important court cases percolating. Much more important is MOVING-TRUCK GERRYMANDERING—where different types of Americans decide where they want to live. That gerrymandering has a much bigger impact on election outcomes than does how politicians draw lines to advantage their party.
4. The Democrat’s counter-memo to the Nunes memo added little to what we know but did give better context. The counter-memo ensures the issues will be discussed for at least a while longer.

Continue reading Where to Now on Protecting Students?; Leadership and Direction of Debate Unclear; Politicians can Gerrymander, But Where People Choose to Live More Important; Democrat’s Counter-Memo Changes Little

In-Brief

1. The Russians tampered with our election, but changed no votes or results, and did not collude with Trump.
2. The Florida school shootings are a tragedy with no solutions short of massive societal change, not just gun laws or mental health procedures.
3. A choice for Democrats—take green cards and eventual citizenship for the DACA “kids” now, or use them as a campaign tool this fall.
4. The US achieves the “impossible dream”—ENERGY INDEPENDENCE.

Continue reading Russian Election Tampering, But No Trump Collusion; Want your Teenage Child or Grandchild Incarcerated?; Democrats Flirting with DACA Danger; Energy Independence is Here!; Trump Budget DOA

2nd Anniversary Issue
The blog began in February 2016.
Thank you to all who have subscribed and especially those who financially supported it!

In-Brief

1. The Budget Deal reached Friday morning clears the deck of all major budget and debt ceiling disagreements between the Rs and Ds for almost two years. It represents effective, bi-partisan governing. Where are the cheers folks for good governing?
2. The details in the House Intelligence committee memo confirmed reporting of incompetence and political corruption at the FBI and DOJ. The Democratic counter-memo, now being reviewed by the White House and FBI, promises to bring context, but also keeps the issue on the front page.
3. N Korea’s Charm strategy at the Olympics is a ruse and will fail. Many will buy it, but the US leadership will not and will ratchet-up the pressure.
4. Trump’s White House continues a long string of failures to do adequate vetting of personnel.
5. And, what, pray tell, is the new Democratic strategy and message now that “Resist Trump” has collapsed?

Continue reading Massive Budget Deal Clears the Deck; Democrats Help Keep FBI & DOJ Political Corruption Story Alive; N Korean Olympics Charm Strategy will Fail; Trump & White House Again Botch Personnel Vetting; The Democratic Strategy is now What?

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In Brief

1. Trump’s State-of-the-Union speech was a tremendous success, approved of by three-quarters of the 50 million Americans who watched. The Democrats got low marks and were rated as petulant for sitting on their hands.
2. The details in the House Intelligence committee memo confirmed reporting of incompetence and political corruption at the FBI and DOJ.
3. Gallup Poll-Knight Foundation study— three-quarters of Americans think inaccurate internet-based news is a major problem.
4. Democrats are searching for a new leader and “voice.”

Continue reading Will the Real Trump Please Stand Up!; FBI & DOJ: Malfeasance, Political Corruption, or Both; Inaccurate Internet News a Major Problem

In Brief

1. Trump’s speech at Davos surprised many, having the expected America First emphasis, but, also, a measured presentation and no incendiary comments. It embraced free trade as long as predatory trade is prevented.
2. Will there be big political impact for Ds or Rs in November elections from the recent or any near-term government shut-down? Not likely!
3. Watch voter’s answers to the “right direction-wrong track” polling question [direction of the country question] if you want to handicap who will win in November.
4. Gallup Poll-Knight Foundation study—more Americans have a negative view of the media [44%], than have a positive view [33%].
5. The politics around the DACA – border wall debate is complex, but a deal is likely by early spring.
6. Another voice on China’s coming debt crisis raises fears of a collapse.

Continue reading A Surprising Trump at Davos; DACA Deal Complexities; Democratic Wave?; Americans Have Negative View of Media; Grandstanders in the Senate

In Brief

For his performance in the 1^st year in office President Trump gets an A on domestic legislation and policy…an A on foreign and defense policy… and a D on tone and style.

Big political impact for Ds or Rs in November elections from government shut-down? Unlikely.

Gallup Poll I —Media failing in its responsibility to American democracy.

Gallup Poll II –Trump approval likely higher than reported.

Another voice on China’s coming debt crisis.

Expect political and legal earthquakes from US documents soon to be de-classified.

New prediction—likelihood of Trump being impeached and removed from office—less than 1%.

Continue reading Grading President Trump; Government Shut-Down; Media Fails our Democracy; Who Actually Colluded with the Russians?; Trump Impeached?

In Brief

1. Hawaii under attack! By Trump?
2. Don’t get your hopes too high, but negotiation and the Olympics are the next steps on the Korean peninsula, not war.
3. Trump’s language? Often unwise!
4. Gallup Poll— for entire year of 2017– 42% Independents; 29% Democrats; 27% Republicans. Democratic landslide in November 2018? No indication of that from this key metric.
5. Oprah for President in 2020? A sloppy ill-timed announcement.
6. Steve Bannon fired at Breitbart.

Continue reading N Korean Threat Lessens – Olympics… Not War… Next Month; S***-Holes… Trump and Posturing Politicians; Hawaii Under Attack!; Oprah for President; Bannon Out at Breitbart

In Brief

1. Government shutdown? Trump & Schumer at war over– DACA, border wall, military and social spending
2. Are you ready for endless investigations by Congress, the DOJ and the FBI? Better be.
3. Republican legislative priorities for 2018—infrastructure…immigration reform… NOT welfare or entitlement reform.
4. Don’t get your hopes too high, but negotiation is the next step on the Korean peninsula.
5. China schedules meeting to give “Emperor” Xi more power while its leaders worry about debt, shadow banking risks, widespread poverty and pollution.
6. Steve Bannon destroyed his political stature last week and will never regain it.

Continue reading Trump v Schumer: Budget-DACA Duel; Bannon Implodes; Kim Blinks?; Investigations and Witch Hunts Galore; China’s Leaders Fret Over Debt, Shadow Banking, Poverty, and Pollution

A STANDARD FOR SUCCESS – I’ll give myself a passing grade if 80% or more prove to be correct.
None of you will like all my predictions and some of you will dislike many of them. Even I don’t like some of them. The appropriate metric isn’t like or dis-like, but accuracy. This is something much of the media seems to have forgotten.

REPORTING — I’ll report the accuracy of these predictions to you at mid-year and at the end of the year.
2017 PREDICTIONS — The accuracy in 2017 was 22 of 25… 88% correct.
Continue reading 2018 Predictions