Tuchfarber Report

BELOW ARE THE PREDICTIONS MADE IN MY JANUARY 2, 2017 BLOG.

I’ll promise to give myself a passing grade if 80% or more proved to be correct.

I also indicated that… none of you will like all my predictions and some of you will dislike many of them. Even I don’t like some of them. The appropriate metric isn’t like or dis-like but accuracy. This is something much of the media seems to have forgotten.
Continue reading Final Check – 2017 Predictions

In Brief

1. The major Republican tax cuts and reform bill has been finalized and signed by President Trump. Ninety percent of US middle-class households will have their taxes reduced noticeably starting in February.
2. The Tax Bill essentially eviscerates the non-Medicaid part of Obamacare by eliminating the requirements that all have some form of health insurance. Between 10 and 20 million households will be freed from paying a high tax penalty from not having such coverage or the even greater expense of paying for very costly and unwanted health insurance.
3. A blunder by one side or the other could set off a major war with N Korea but neither side wants that outcome…for either it would be a catastrophe.
4. Predictions the Republicans will be devastated in the November 2018 elections are foolishly premature.

Continue reading Larger Pay Checks Definitely Coming; Obamacare Insurance Mandate Ends; War with North Korea Possible… But Not Likely

In Brief

1. The major Republican tax cuts and reform bill has been finalized with passage planned for this week. Trump signing it by Christmas is virtually certain. As many as 90% of US households will have their taxes reduced noticeably starting in February.
2. The Tax bill essentially eviscerates the non-Medicaid part of Obamacare by eliminating the requirements that all have some form of health insurance. Between 10 and 20 million households will be freed from paying a high tax penalty from not having such coverage or the even greater expense of paying for very costly and unwanted health insurance.
3. Revelations about the sins of sex abuse and sexual harassment will just keep on confronting the land. Expect many more surprises next year.
4. Special Counsel Mueller, the FBI and DOJ are all now under their own clouds of bias and wrong-doing. Congressional investigators are breathing down their necks and 2018 promises endless inquiries into their potential political corruption.
5. Moore, Bannon and Trump all lost in Alabama.

Continue reading Tax Reform… Christmas Present; Obamacare Gutted; Sex, Politics, and Society… Unanticipated Consequences; Mueller, FBI and DOJ Under Attack; 2018: Lessons from Political History and 2017; Alabama Speaks

In Brief

1. Major tax reform nears. A Senate-House Conference Committee is working to resolve the differences between the bills. Be prepared for surprising changes. Passage by Christmas now looks likely.
2. Revelations about the sins of sex abuse and sexual harassment will just keep on confronting the land. Expect many more surprises. Who will be the judges and juries? What are the rules and standards? Will the hysteria extend to other forms of “sin”? Beware ye who live in glass houses as public hysteria is not easily controlled.
3. Special Counsel Mueller, the FBI and DOJ are all now under their own clouds of bias and wrong-doing. It will be difficult for Mueller to get any conviction from a jury on any charge that has a partisan political aspect to it.
4. The Trump announcement of a move of the American embassy to Jerusalem is just a confirmation of old policy and has manifested only sputtering protest in Palestine.
5. The International Monetary Fund [IMF] reports that China’s banks have insufficient capital and face rapidly mounting credit risks.

Continue reading Tax Reform… Almost Sure; Sex, Politics and Society… People in Glass Houses Should be Careful Where They Throw Stones; Special Counsel Mueller… FBI and DOJ Under Their Own Clouds; Embassy to Jerusalem… Days of a Little Rage

In Brief

1. Major tax reform nears. The Senate tax bill passed 51-49 with no Democratic votes. As the houses of Congress passed different bills, a Conference Committee will resolve the differences but is also almost sure to make substantial further changes. So, stay tuned…be prepared to be surprised…much can and will change. Passage by Christmas now looks likely.
2. Fake news from ABC on Friday about the implications of General Flynn’s guilty plea gets their reporter suspended without pay after causing billions in worldwide financial market losses.
3. The partisan coalitions of groups that make up our two parties have changed markedly with the Republicans becoming the white working-class and middle-class party and the Democrats—a bi-modal party of both the rich and of minorities and the poor. These changes have caused a dramatic shift in which states are safe Republican states and which are safe Democratic states. This week’s issue continues a 4-PART series about our changing political geography with a focus on substantive change in the Great Lakes and Midwest states of PA…OH…MI…WI…and IA.
4. The sins of sex abuse and sexual harassment just keep on confronting the land…and many more of the guilty will fall…but which ones? Likely next targets are the protectors and enablers of the guilty.
5. North Korea launches its heaviest, most threatening missile.
6. China becomes more and more authoritarian requiring its tech companies and US tech companies to help it monitor its people in Big Brother fashion. The US and Europe push back against Chinese abuse of its World Trade Organization privileges.

Continue reading Tax Reform… Almost Sure; Sex, Politics and Crisis… More Coming; Fake News Punished; Major Political Change… The Great Lakes States; North Korean Threat Increases

In Brief

1. Tax reform is very likely yet this year or early next. The current Senate bill will be amended multiple times before its final vote. If both houses of Congress pass bills, a Conference Committee will make substantial further changes. So, stay tuned…much can and will change.
2. The partisan coalitions of groups that make up our two parties have changed markedly with the Republicans becoming the white working-class and middle-class party and the Democrats—a bi-modal party of both the rich and of minorities and the poor. These changes have caused a dramatic shift in which states are safe Republican states and which are safe Democratic states. This week’s issue continues a 4-PART series about our changing political geography with a focus on the South-Central/Border states of AR…KY…LA…MO…TN…and WV.
3. The wages of the sins of sex abuse and sexual harassment are coming home to roost in Hollywood, DC, media-land and throughout the US. The genie is out of the bottle and will not go quietly back inside. Many of the guilty and their enablers, as well as some of the innocent, will be in the spotlight for months or years to come. Our politics and society will suffer shock after shock. Many media, political and professional careers will be lost.

Continue reading Tax Cuts More Likely; Sex, Politics, and Crisis…Never Ending; What Are The Democratic States, Which Are Republican, South Central States?

In Brief

1. Tax reform is very likely yet this year or early next. The House bill passed 227-205 with no Democratic votes. The Senate bill will change multiple times before it is voted on. If both houses of Congress pass bills, a Conference Committee will make substantial further changes. So, stay tuned…
2. The partisan coalitions of groups that make up our two parties have changed markedly with the Republicans becoming the white working-class and middle-class party and the Democrats—a bi-modal party of both the rich and of minorities and the poor. These changes have caused a dramatic shift in which states are safe Republican states and which are safe Democratic states. This week’s issue starts a 4-PART series about our changing political geography.
3. The wages of the sins of sex abuse and sexual harassment are coming home to roost in Hollywood, DC and throughout the land. The genie is out of the bottle and will not go quietly back inside. Expect many of the guilty and their enablers to be in the spotlight for months or years to come and for our politics and society to suffer shock after shock.

Continue reading Tax Cuts Even More Likely; Sex, Politics, and Abuse; What Are The Democratic States, Which Are Republican, and The Future?

In Brief

1. Tax reform is likely yet this year or early next. The House bill will change before any final vote. The Senate bill will change multiple times. If both pass in their houses of Congress, a Conference Committee will make substantial further changes. So, stay tuned…
2. The partisan coalitions of groups that make up our two parties have changed markedly with the Republicans becoming the white working-class and middle-class party and the Democrats—a bi-modal party of both the rich and of minorities and the poor. These changes will have a dramatic impact on our politics for years and are the main cause of Donald Trump being elected President.
3. President Trump is on an important 12-day trip to Asia focusing on four-things: 1. assistance from China on reining in N Korea, 2. negotiating stronger trade deals throughout the region, 3. strengthening defense cooperation with allies and 4. demonstrating the US commitment to East and SE Asia.
4. The Virginia election results and those in NJ and around the country were what one would expect. The sky is not falling on the Republicans. And, Gillespie would have lost badly in VA even if he had fully embraced Trump. VA is now a Democratic state and likely to get more so.

Continue reading Tax Cuts Likely – How and When, Who Are Democratic Voters Now, Who Are Republicans, Trump In Asia, and Virginia Election Analysis Nonsense

In Brief

1. Former DNC head, Donna Brazile, will publish a new book this week describing exactly how Hillary Clinton rigged the nomination process to defeat Bernie Sanders. This revelation will heat up an already brutal war between the newer Progressive-wing and Clinton-Mainstream-Labor -wing of the Democratic Party.
2. President Trump is on critically important 12-day trip to Asia focusing on four-things: 1. assistance from China on reining in N Korea, 2. negotiating stronger trade deals throughout the region, 3. strengthening defense cooperation with allies and 4. demonstrating, by attendance at the East Asia Summit, the US commitment to East and SE Asia.
3. If things go as planned the Republicans will announced a revised version of their tax reform plan early this week. It will address some of the initial complaints but cannot address all of them. So far R unity in the House and Senate have both been strong but the lobbying will be tense and heated. The bill will change quite a few times. It is likely to pass by early 2018 and perhaps as early as Christmas.
4. Watch the Tuesday elections in Virginia for some early clues about the 2018 Congressional races. The Ds should win in VA easily, as well as NJ, but the races in VA have gotten far closer than most anticipated.

Continue reading Trump On Crucial Asia Visit, Proof From DNC Head Clinton Stole Nomination From Sanders, Tax Cuts Likely, But When?

In Brief

1. As claimed by Trump, the Trump-Russia collusion case was based on fake news. Turns out it was paid for by the Clinton campaign and the DNC according to their own lawyer. The collusion now appears to be between Clinton and the Russians both in 2016 and throughout Clinton’s Secretary of State tenure.
2. President Xi of China has decreed, in effect, that China will now be a totalitarian-socialist state. This is a dramatic shift from the authoritarian- capitalist state it has been since 1979. The change will have massive effects in China and across the globe.
3. If things go on schedule the Republican tax package and legislation will be released this Wednesday and be enacted before the end of the year. There will still be a great deal of negotiating and severe doubts about passage in the House because of battles over state and local taxes and other issues. Momentum is there but disputes abound.
4. A new Pew research report shows political polarization in the US to be very high. Few Democrats or Republicans are, respectively, to the right of the average Republican or left of the average Democrat. Don’t expect that polarization to wane anytime soon, perhaps not for decades.

Continue reading China’s Totalitarian Regime, Russia Collusion – DNC and Clinton Paid for Trump Dossier, Tax Cuts Likely, and A Deeply Polarized Nation