2018 Predictions

A STANDARD FOR SUCCESS – I’ll give myself a passing grade if 80% or more prove to be correct.
None of you will like all my predictions and some of you will dislike many of them. Even I don’t like some of them. The appropriate metric isn’t like or dis-like, but accuracy. This is something much of the media seems to have forgotten.

REPORTING — I’ll report the accuracy of these predictions to you at mid-year and at the end of the year.
2017 PREDICTIONS — The accuracy in 2017 was 22 of 25… 88% correct.

American Politics & Elections

The Republicans will lose seats, but not the US House majority in the 2018 elections.
The Democrats will lose US Senate seats.
2018 will be a “Turnout Election” –one substantially affected by which party is more effective in getting its voter base to the polls. Negative anger at Trump and D “resistance” to him will be pitted against R loyalty to him and belief in him. Overall turnout will be down substantially from the 2016 Presidential vote, a normal occurrence.
In the 2018 Democratic primaries an ideological civil war will rage between the “progressive”- wing and the traditionalist-wing of the party.
Their main battle will be over moving further left and moving back to the center to regain white working-class votes.
Five percent or fewer of D or R House incumbents running for re-election will be defeated in 2018.
The Republicans will nominate a higher percentage of politically skilled candidates than the Ds because they have more incumbents and the D civil war “progressives” will succeed in nominating more than a few political novices, as did the Tea Party for the Rs in 2010 and 2012.
Regional geographic partisan polarization within and between states will be dramatic in the 2018 elections.
The Democrats will “waste” millions of votes, winning many districts and states by large majorities because their voters have “packed” themselves, by choice of residency, in a limited number of states and inner-city/older- suburban areas. Rs are more spread between states and districts allowing them to win pluralities and majorities with lower percentages.
No clear, widely acknowledged Democratic “message” leader, including former President Obama, will emerge in 2018.
The main D message in 2018 will be “resist Trump”.
Republicans will use Nancy Pelosi as their chief political “boogie-man [woman]”.
The Republicans will be more united than the Democrats in 2018 as many Never-Trump Rs grudgingly accept him and as Steve Bannon self-destructs.
“Resist-Trump” rhetoric and campaigning will be very effective in some states [Northeast, Pacific Coast] and in many major urban areas but ineffective in many other areas.
The 2017 Tax Bill and the repeal of the Obamacare health insurance mandate will be a major positive for the Republicans as voters see the direct financial benefit to them starting in February.
The Right Direction-Wrong Track polling question will be a better predictor of voting intention than the Presidential Approval question in 2018. [“Wrong-track” below 58% is good for Rs; 63+% good for Ds.]
President Trump and VP Pence will play a significant role in raising hundreds of millions for GOP candidates, from both large and small donors.
Trump and Pence will appear, on a targeted basis, for R state and district candidates substantially increasing GOP pre-election “energy”. They will avoid areas where such rallies would generate more D “counter-energy”.
VP Pence will be recognized, increasingly, as a star in the Trump administration.
Nikki Haley will emerge as more of a political star in 2018 and lend campaign support to Republican candidates.
The Trump-Russia collusion story will die a slow boring death with little consequence related to the original substance.
2018 will be a bad political and legal year for Hillary Clinton.
The fact the GOP is now the middle-class party will become more widely recognized in 2018 as will the fact that the Democrats are the party of the poor, minorities and the rich.
“Never-Trump” Republicans will increasingly recognize his successes and leadership, fewer, but a significant number, will leave the party.
Steve Bannon and the “Alt-right” will become but minor players in 2018.
The Tax Bill and end of the Obamacare mandate will do much to end the idea that the Republicans cannot govern.
Private business white union workers will continue their move to the Republicans.
Negative reactions by many to Trump’s tone and style will continue to obscure his leadership and policy successes.

Legislation, Policy & Law

There will be no complete repeal and replacement of Obamacare in 2018 but there will be major legislative and policy changes to make it more efficient, effective and financially viable.
The Trump administration will substantially speed-up de-regulation in 2018.
Trump will continue to populate the federal courts with “textualist”/constitutionalist judges.
Trump will not be impeached even if the Democrats win the House in 2018.
Few DACA illegals [“Dreamers”] will be deported unless they commit crimes beyond being in the US with no official status.
A full TX to CA physical border wall is not in the cards and will not be funded because it is not physically feasible or necessary. But, border security will increase markedly beyond its already significant increase in 2017.
The fact that President Trump is not a strong fiscal conservative, but a Reagan-Kemp supply-sider, will become very obvious in 2018.
Robert Mueller will not be fired by Trump, but may be forced out because of political corruption or actions by senior members of his team.
Russian interference in the 2016 election will be documented with the Clinton campaign and Fusion GPS as the principle vectors.
Many major officials in the Obama administration will be demonstrated to have not acted upon knowledge of Russian involvement.
US national security budgets will be substantially increased.

Global Economics, Finance & Demographics

There will be no US recession in 2018.
US Q3 to Q3 growth in 2018 will be near or exceed 3.0%.
Both the official US unemployment rate [U-3] and the broadest measure [U-6] will approach or pass historic lows.
The US labor participation rate will increase.
Wage growth in the US in 2018 will be 3% or higher, well above inflation.
US core “PCE” inflation will stay below 3% for the year.
US exports of crude oil, natural gas, refined oil products and natural gas liquids will increase significantly.
US energy production will increase significantly.
US influence on world energy prices will continue to grow.
Business investment in the US will increase substantially.
China’s total societal debt [household, corporate and government] will increase faster than GDP in 2018.
In 2018, China’s government will directly interfere more in private businesses through policies, diverting profits, and direct involvement in management.
China’s commitment to renewable energy will be driven mostly by its horrible pollution and the internal political problems it causes, not by a commitment to reducing global warming.
The working age populations of China, Germany, Japan and Russia will fall while the average age of their populations will increase.
The size of the US working age population will increase.
The US average age will increase.
Russia will continue its slow economic decline.
Europe will continue its slow economic, political and demographic decline.
India’s total population and working age population will grow substantially.
India’s GDP will continue to grow rapidly.
Bitcoin will be extremely volatile in 2018 with billions gained and lost.
Extreme poverty [less than $2/day] across the globe will continue to decrease.
Two major causes of lower US longevity rates will be the Opioid epidemic and the large number of illegals in the US from shorter life-span countries.

Global Politics

There will be additional, effective sanctions against N Korea from the US and UN unless they substantially ratchet back their nuclear weapons and ballistic missile testing.
There will be no major war with N Korea.
China’s active assistance will be essential for any substantial progress on the N Korea crisis.
Expect additional Iran sanctions by the US based on their international terrorism and human rights abuses domestically.
ISIS will stay defeated on the battlefield, but will continue to be a major terrorism and insurgent threat.
The informal “alliance” between Israel, Saudi, the Gulf States, Egypt and Jordan will become more visible and strengthen to the benefit of all in the alliance but to the chagrin of the Palestinians, Iranians, Iraqis and Lebanese.
Political instability in Europe and the EU will increase well beyond the effect of BREXIT.
The EU will continue its slow dis-integration.
India will continue its rise toward major power status economically and militarily.
Venezuela will continue its economic, financial and political collapse.
S America will continue its move away from socialism.
The civil war in Syria will continue.
Worldwide CO2 emissions will decrease or stay relatively unchanged calling into question global warming projections.

Socio-Political

Trump will be Trump and say and tweet outrageous, unwise things.
China’s government will become even more authoritarian and totalitarian reducing human and civil rights of its people under “Emperor” Xi.
The reputations and credibility of the FBI, DOJ, State Department, intelligence agencies and many other federal agencies have been and will be substantially damaged by Obama era political corruption.
Scores of additional politicians and celebrities will resign, be fired or not run again as a result of sexual harassment or other morality based issues.
Expect extensive European and US concern and action about the size and societal impacts of major high-tech giants like Google [Alphabet], Amazon and Facebook.

Looking Ahead Several Years and Beyond

These additional predictions will not be evaluated regularly like the 2018 predictions above. They are relevant well beyond 2018, but are important to note now.

China during this period will fall into the same sort of stagnation as its economic model, Japan, did in the early 1990s. This economic crisis is likely to begin before the end of 2019.
China’s population will peak, its workforce decrease in size and it will age rapidly.
China’s lack of an adequate pension system for seniors will create enormous socio-political strains.
NAFTA will survive in some form, but the negotiation process may go beyond 2018.
Trump era GDP growth will average well above the 1.5 to 2.0 percent growth of the Obama era.
The Russians will mostly give up on their “war” with Ukraine, except for the annexation of Crimea because it is costing them money they do not have for gains of limited value.
During this period, self-driving cars, vans and trucks will begin to achieve notable market penetration and begin a massive change to American society similar in scope to that caused by the automobile before and after WWII.
Cuba will enter a period of political and economic turmoil as the Castro regime ends.
Iran will enter an era of internal turmoil and strife and will be gradually forced to pull back from many foreign expansionist ventures.
The world will search for a definition and understanding of the new socio-political and economic era it has entered.
There will be a chaotic “cavalry charge” for the 2020 Democratic nomination with dozens of serious candidates drawn from politicians, celebrities and business leaders.
Among the likely candidates, three African-American will contest for center stage as the minority favorite— Senator Cory Booker [NJ], Senator Kamala Harris [CA], and former Governor Deval Patrick [MA].

Until tomorrow when a regular weekly blog will be published…
Al Tuchfarber PhD
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati