In Brief
In-Depth
What’s Important
Grading President Trump
President Trump has been in office for an action-packed year. Many admire his accomplishments and many others revile everything about him.
Being a teacher, I am going to grade him on his accomplishments… on his policies, appointments, and whether he kept his promises to the American people. I’ll also grade him on the tone of his diverse communications, and the style he has shown in handling his office.
For my April 17, 2017 issue of this blog, at the end of Trump’s first 100 days, I listed 17 major promises the President made to the people… the voters… during the 2016 campaign. I’ll use those as a template to judge his accomplishments… grading each as… achieved… mostly achieved… in-process… or, not achieved.
The major promises by Trump during the Presidential campaign and the substantive results are:
- Create economic growth greater than 3%–ACHIEVED
- Create millions of new high paying jobs—ACHIEVED
- Slash job killing federal regulations—ACHIEVED
- Cut corporate and individual tax rates—ACHIEVED
- Invest in infrastructure to increase productivity—IN-PROCESS
- Expand US energy production and become more energy independent–ACHIEVED
- Withdraw from TPP, obtain better trade deals—IN-PROCESS
- Gain effective control of US border, with wall where necessary—MOSTLY ACHIEVED
- Empower US warfighters with appropriate rules-of-engagement and support—ACHIEVED
- Build up the US military substantially—IN-PROCESS
- Defeat ISIS and Islamic radicalism—ACHIEVED
- Name strict constructionist justices to the federal courts—ACHIEVED
- Greatly improve healthcare for veterans—ACHIEVED
- Repeal Obamacare—MOSTLY ACHIEVED
- Do not cut Social Security or Medicare—ACHIEVED
- Slow/reverse increasing crime rates and slow drug-crime and gangs—IN-PROCESS
- Cut federal funding to sanctuary cities—IN-PROCESS
Summary:
10 Achieved
2 Mostly achieved
0 Not achieved
5 In-process
On substance and policy and on keeping his promises he gets an A on domestic policy. He also gets an A for his achievements on foreign policy.
On tone and style, the grade plummets to a D.
Trump has changed the rules and methods of political communication between the President and the people. There is nothing wrong with going directly to the people as he does. In fact, getting the media out of the middle with all their distortions is a very good thing. Both the left-leaning and right-leaning media “spin” almost everything or botch the analysis.
So, Trump’s communication vehicles—often tweets and huge rallies—are fine, but far too often his tone and style are ill-advised, if not destructive.
Too often the language is belligerent. Strong words are often needed and appropriate, but Trump is the most powerful person on the planet, as well as the most influential, and doesn’t need to go “over-the-top” frequently.
Trump also attacks key allies in gratuitous ways…people like Merkel, May or Mitch McConnell. He needs to internalize the fact that “HE IS THE BIG DOG” and doesn’t need to strike out at friends for modest affronts or disappointments. Dissing Putin, or Kim or the ayatollahs is a different story.
He contradicts himself and his staff too often. He should use unpredictability as a tool at times but constantly insisting he hasn’t changed his mind weakens his credibility.
Trump uses a harsh tone as a tool. He need not change that but the inconsistency, gratuitous attacks on the wrong people, and the over-belligerence should wane.
If you want to really understand Trump better, give some thought to what previous presidents he is like.
Andrew Jackson is a legendary politician and President. He created the modern political party by changing the Democratic Party from the elite party of Jefferson to the first mass political party that still flourishes today. He changed the rules of politics, political communication, and the Presidency. He “broke” things everywhere he went but created real democracy in America…real people power.
Ronald Reagan was also a legendary politician and President. He had a great style and communication skills but also changed the rules and policies of Washington DC, especially in foreign affairs.
Donald Trump is a mix of those two along with a good dollop of “The Donald”.
Elections 2018
Impact of government shut-down
Don’t expect the current government shut-down to effect either party very much in the 2018 elections. But, should there happen to be another shut-down right before those November elections the story would be different.
The reason for the minimal impact of the current shut-down is that the elections are over 10 months away… a lifetime in politics.
Go back to 2013 when the Republicans purposely and openly shut-down the government from Oct. 1-17. They got appropriately blamed. The favorable rating of the party tanked in the polls and the predictions were that the voters would punish them in the 2014 elections a year later.
What happened?
Rather than being punished, the Rs added 12 House seats to a comfortable majority they already had. In the Senate, they took 9 seats and surged into majority control.
This is not to say that the current shut-down and its resolution are not important, but, regardless of who the voters blame in the short run, it is unlikely to matter much in November.
What happens throughout the year, especially with the economy and the conflicts with N Korea and Iran will be much more important than the current shut-down kerfuffle.
Media
Media failing responsibility to American democracy
A Gallup study released January 16 showed 84% of Americans think the media is “critical” or “very important” to supporting American democracy. But, just 28% of us see the media doing that job “very well” or “well”. The media is clearly failing in this important role.
Another Gallup Report from the same study released the next day said 45% of Americans see a great deal of bias in the media, up from 25% in 1989. The study also showed that 51% of Americans cannot name a single “objective” news source. 56 percent in political Independents cannot do so.
The news is “spun” to advance partisan goals by producers, editors and journalists on both the left and right.
That is a reflection of the deep partisanship in the country that began to emerge during the Nixon-Watergate crisis, has festered ever since, and is now worsening as the country itself becomes more and more polarized.
30 Day TESTS
Don’t forget the Tuchfarber 30 Day test — when you get upset about something in the news, ask if it is likely to be IMPORTANT IN 30 days or so. Only seldom will it be so and you can usually ignore it.
Trump & the White house
Trump Approval Underestimated
A Gallup Report released January 16 shows that President Trump’s approval rating may be seriously underestimated. In the Gallup Poll Trump’s approval has been in the high 30s for months. That is a very poor rating.
Gallup’s analysts compared that score to the current ratings by Americans of the economy in their polls as well as Americans’ satisfaction with how things are going in the country. Those indicators and the historic relationship of them with the presidential approval ratings suggest Trump’s approval ratings should be in the high 40s to low 50s, not mired in the 30s.
Trump is a polarizing figure and his tone and style leave much to be desired, but political pundits would be wise to take care in using prediction models of the 2018 congressional elections that rely heavily on presidential approval ratings.
Personally, I’m watching the right direction-wrong track question used by many pollsters as well as Gallup’s satisfaction with the direction of the US question. Those indicators are currently suggesting only modest losses in the House by the Rs in the fall elections and gains in the Senate because of all the vulnerable seats the Ds have up for election in the upper-house.
I’ll report those indicators throughout the year.
China’s Politics and Economy
China Watch
- NEW—A Council on Foreign Relations study reports that China’s last decade of economic success has been founded on a growing mountain of debt and will “end in crisis”. I have been making the same point since 2012 and predict that for political reasons, President Xi will permit that crisis to begin later this year or in 2019 as by then he will have gathered to himself almost all power in China. He seems to believe that, he, the regime, and the country can weather the coming economic storm.
- China just announced a record trade surplus with the US. All await Trump administration sanctions by the US against China on a number of different products.
- Reuters reports…” China’s leaders fret over debts lurking in the shadow banking system. The complex lending hidden in the shadow banking sector compounds the threat posed by China’s rapid accumulation of debt. Economic pain from a string of defaults would present a challenge for a one-party regime that draws its legitimacy from the promise of prosperity.”
- During its key Central Economic Work Conference held Dec. 18-20 the Chinese leadership declares “war” on financial risk, poverty and pollution. China’s debt load is crushing, most of its citizens live in poverty or modest means, while many in the rich provinces thrive. And pollution is a major health and political hazard.
- China is placing its para-military police under the direct control of General Secretary Xi giving him even more extra-ordinary power.
- Next spring China is likely to modify its Constitution to allow Xi to serve more than two terms as President.
- The ambiguity, contradictions and risk of China’s economic policy is illustrated by two contradictory policy statements. On 12/20 the WSJ reported President Xi’s Economic Blueprint for 2018 stresses debt reduction less. Two days later Reuters reports that “China curbs lender-trust cooperation in fight against shadow banking “curbing a trust industry that has grown five times in five years to $3.51 trillion in an “industry which helps channel deposits into risky investments via products often designed to dodge capital or investment regulations”. China wants it both ways…continuing high growth and societal stability but also reining in the debt creation that created the high growth. The two are incompatible and a crash is guaranteed with only the timing in doubt.
- The International Monetary Fund [IMF] reported recently that China’s banks have insufficient capital to weather a credit or debt crisis. The problem is widespread but especially focused in the rapidly exploding “wealth management “arena and in the broader shadow banking arena where the authorities have not been able to keep up with “innovative” approaches by a variety of financial actors.
- China is becoming more and more authoritarian, forcing its tech companies and US tech companies to monitor Chinese citizens and make the results available to the government.
- The US and Europe are increasingly unwilling to let China flout the World Trade Organization rules it pledged to abide by when admitted is 2001.
Musings
Who colluded with the Russians?
I’m including this brief story in the musings section because many key facts have yet to be declassified and released…so there is some speculation involved.
Expect, in the next week or two, to see definitive evidence that nature of the Trump campaign-Russia collusion case actually consists of a very different story than the one we had been led to believe. As I predicted many months ago, the unmasking of numerous Republicans through FISA warrant approvals requested by Obama White House and administration officials were likely the result of the political corruption in our government by high ranking officials.
Numerous Republicans and Democrats in the Congress, with appropriate clearances, have already seen the evidence which must be de-classified or cleared before it can be released to the public. It will get out soon, one way or the other.
Stay tuned…
Predictions
New Predictions
Election Predictions
- The probability the Rs will lose seats in the 2018 House elections is 80 to 90%.
- The probability that the Rs will lose control of the House in 2018 is 10 to 20%.
- The probability that the Rs will still control the Senate in 2019 is 90 to 95%.
- The chance that the Ds will lose seats in the 2018 Senate elections is 90 to 95%.
- The chance that Donald Trump will be the 2020 Republican nominee is 90 to 95%
- The chance that Trump will be re-elected in 2020 is 80 to 85%.
Policy & Legislative Predictions
- NEW—The chance that Donald Trump will be impeached and removed from office by the Congress in the next three years is less than 1%.
- NEW–The chance that Trump will be removed from office in the next 7 years is less than 5%.
- OLD AND BEING DELETED—There is a 90-95% probability the Congress will pass a major tax reform tax cuts for most by early 2018. CORRECT
- OLD AND BEING DELETED–There is a high probability that Obamacare will be very substantially changed by the tax reform bill. CORRECT
Until next week…
Al Tuchfarber
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati