Biden’s Health & the Extent of Urban Violence & Crime Are Keys to Election Victor

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In-Brief

1. At this point, about 50 days before the election, the two factors most likely to swing the election one way or the other are the voters’ perception of Biden’s physical and mental health and whether the fear around the country continues to grow in the suburbs over the widespread violence and crime in our cities. Other factors will be important, but those two look to dominate.
2. Covid case rates are falling. The death rate has plummeted. Many of the new cases are among young people who have stopped social distancing. Some European countries are now starting to see a new increase in cases, a worrisome sign.
3. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
4. The US economy is rapidly re-opening and began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services.  Almost all the indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4%, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings have been added to the US Job Openings report.
5. Now is the point that the “swing voters” will begin to pay attention to the Presidential race. They will determine the winner.

<FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”