Economic Optimism for 2022

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In-Brief

1. America is likely to have good economic growth this year! And no stagflation. Inflation will slow gradually as the global supply chain untwists itself.
2. Senator Joe Manchin is the Person-of-the-Year and the Patriot-of-the-Year.
3. If Russia launches an invasion of the Ukraine, the US will respond very strongly, but not unilaterally with our own troops. The reactions will be political, financial, and economic, and will be devastating for Russia and its oligarchs. The previous weakness of President Biden in Afghanistan, and the newness of German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, will force them to be resolute against Putin.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong. Year over year growth looks likely to come in at about 6%. November’s unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.6% to 4.2%. Ironically, many Americans think we are in a recession. We are NOT in a recession. In fact, the US economy is booming.
5. But high inflation is badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022.
6. Do NOT panic over the new omicron strain of Covid. As of today, it looks at worst to cause moderate health and economic problems. In the first weeks of the omicron strain spread across the country only 1 in 500 Americans contracting it have died. But be careful and protect yourself if you have other serious health problems.