Election Special

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Al

In-Brief

1. Presidential prediction: Trump 70% likely to win. Biden 30%
2. Senate prediction: Republicans lose a net of 1 or 2 seats but retain Senate majority.
3. In 2016, at this point in the Presidential race, Hillary Clinton was way ahead in the polls and the betting odds. She won the popular vote easily but lost the electoral vote. That combination may or may not repeat this year. The polls say Biden, but the enthusiasm says Trump. My analysis is that enthusiasm wins.
4. Survival rates from having Covid-19 have become exceedingly high, but Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous. The number of cases in Europe and the US is rising again, although the death rate has plummeted to about 1%. The World Health Organization and many other health orgs are now recommending against total economic and societal shut-downs.
5. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. The huge GDP gain announced last week shows the recovery is V-shaped.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”