Ginsburg Death Scrambles Election Handicapping

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In-Brief

1. The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg scrambles the 2020 election campaign in numerous ways.
2. At this point, about six weeks before the election, the two factors that were most likely to swing the election one way or the other were the voters’ perception of Biden’s physical and mental health and whether the fear around the country continues to grow in the suburbs over the widespread violence and crime in our cities. To those two has been added the uncertainty and contentiousness of whether a Justice to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be nominated and confirmed before the election.
3. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
4. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4%, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month.
5. The battle over replacing Justice Ginsburg is likely to increase voter turnout for both parties and will is almost sure to lead to ugly and dangerous actions.
6. Support for the Blacks Lives Matter movement is falling significantly. Most voters believe an attack on a cop ought to be a “hate crime” and punished with higher penalties.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”