Putin Chooses War and He Will Lose

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In-Brief

1. Russia invaded the Ukraine. The US and Europe have responded very strongly. The West’s reactions have been and will be political, financial, and economic, and will be devastating for Russia and its oligarchs. In the end Putin will lose.
2. A shooting war between Russia and the US and NATO is extremely unlikely unless Putin attacks a NATO country directly.
3. From the Russia v. Ukraine war is going to come peace.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong, as is the job market. World inflation may get materially worse. But it is more likely that we will see the end of the war quite soon. Keep your fingers crossed.
5. High inflation is still badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022, but only gradually as supply and demand get more in balance, and no larger war breaks out.