Tuesday’s Debate Turns Race into Referendum on Trump’s Style and Performance v. Biden’s Physical and Mental Capacity

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In-Brief

1. The Tuesday evening debate between Biden and Trump will, in effect, be a referendum on both, not just of Trump. The referendum on Trump is based on his four years a President. For Biden, it is based on whether he has the physical stamina and mental capacity to serve as President. Be prepared for a major shake-up in the race if Biden performs poorly physically or mentally.
2. The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg scrambles the 2020 election campaign in numerous ways. It appears that the Senate will confirm Amy Coney Barrett, Trump’s nominee, just before or just after the Nov. 3 election.
3. Covid-19 is still extremely dangerous If you are in a vulnerable health situation, continue to protect yourself.
4. The US economy began a strong recovery in June. That recovery is still on-track as measured by many indicators, including existing home sales and the Purchasing Managers indices for manufacturing and services. The indicators of economic growth are coming in stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4%, a huge decline. The economy is clearly growing rapidly now. Over 700,000 additional job openings were added last month.
5. The battle over replacing Justice Ginsburg is likely to increase voter turnout for both parties and is almost sure to lead to ugly and dangerous violence.
6. Support for the Blacks Lives Matter movement is falling significantly, even among Black-Americans.

FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address - 1933... “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”

Abraham Lincoln – “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”