War or No War Vlad?

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In-Brief

1. Russia, by its actions, has made serious threats of an invasion of the Ukraine. The US and Europe have responded very strongly. The West’s reactions have been and will be political, financial, and economic, and will be devastating for Russia and its oligarchs.
2. A shooting war between Russia and the US and NATO is extremely unlikely unless Putin attacks a NATO country directly. President Biden has handled this crisis well so far. Putin has created a lose-lose situation for himself and now must decide how to minimize his losses. China’s support of Putin is not new and changes little.
3. The big news in US politics is that the Ds have lost their 2 to 1 lead among Hispanic voters.
4. The US economic recovery continues to be strong, as is the job market. If a major Russia-Ukraine war begins, expect the US stock market averages to plunge. Also, world inflation would get materially worse.
5. High inflation is still badly hurting tens of millions of American families. Inflation is likely to slow gradually in 2022, but only gradually as supply and demand get more in balance, and no major war breaks out.
6. Special Counsel John Durham’s indictments against 2016 Clinton campaign affiliates threaten Clinton, the Democrats, the mainstream media, as well as the Obama White House folks.