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Massive Budget Deal Clears the Deck; Democrats Help Keep FBI & DOJ Political Corruption Story Alive; N Korean Olympics Charm Strategy will Fail; Trump & White House Again Botch Personnel Vetting; The Democratic Strategy is now What?

Al Tuchfarber

2nd Anniversary Issue
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In-Brief

  1. The Budget Deal reached Friday morning clears the deck of all major budget and debt ceiling disagreements between the Rs and Ds for almost two years. It represents effective, bi-partisan governing. Where are the cheers folks for good governing?
  2. The details in the House Intelligence committee memo confirmed reporting of incompetence and political corruption at the FBI and DOJ. The Democratic counter-memo, now being reviewed by the White House and FBI, promises to bring context, but also keeps the issue on the front page.
  3. N Korea’s Charm strategy at the Olympics is a ruse and will fail. Many will buy it, but the US leadership will not and will ratchet-up the pressure.
  4. Trump’s White House continues a long string of failures to do adequate vetting of personnel.
  5. And, what, pray tell, is the new Democratic strategy and message now that “Resist Trump” has collapsed?

In-Depth

What’s Important

The Budget Deal

It’s hard to adequately describe the political and economic importance of the budget deal passed by the Congress and signed by the President early Friday morning.

Late last year and earlier this year, until a few days ago, in both the mainstream press and right-leaning press, we heard a great deal of teeth gnashing about:

All those issues, except the DACA-border wall dispute, were SOLVED for two years in the Friday Budget Deal. Where are the loud cheers? The Congress and White House did their job. Bi-partisanship happened as almost every American says they want.

Again, where are the cheers? Many in both parties and the media seem only to want to complain.

The Congress and White House tended to the People’s Business, but I’ll bet little credit will be given.

The DACA-border wall dispute has also been set up for a resolution. One is not guaranteed but is more than 50% likely. The Ds and American people want the DACA “kids’ issue settled in their favor, Trump wants the wall [physical and electronic] funding as well as immigration reform. That is a basis for another bi-partisan deal.

For those of you screaming at me that the deal adds $300-400 billion to the deficit and debt over the next two years and beyond, I recognize your point and have several responses:

  1. This deal fixes disasters that earlier flawed deficit reduction deals messed up badly. The budget sequesters seriously jeopardized military readiness and the lives of our men and women. That had to be fixed as did giving the American people in Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico, and California adequate disaster relief.
  2. The spending increases will add to GDP growth, with total growth [real growth plus inflation] of 6-7% this year and next. As the deficit increases will be at 5-5.5% of GDP, the debt to GDP ratio will actually go down slightly, not up.
  3. The only effective way to end the large deficits and slow the debt increases is to have major entitlement reform of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Trump has promised not to cut SS or Medicare benefits. And, as this year is an election year no major entitlement reforms are likely except for some tweaks to Medicaid. In 2019, there will be a window of opportunity if the Rs don’t get defeated badly this November. Trump’s stand against SS and Medicare cuts mean reform will consist of gradual retirement age increases and more earnings taxable to pay for Social Security as well as higher fees [taxes] for wealthier recipients of Medicare. Some of you need to be careful what you wish for, as the well-off are going to end up paying for deficit reduction, not the poor or middle-class.

FBI & DOJ Political Corruption Kept Alive

Notwithstanding the accusations of some Democrats, the DOJ and FBI do not contest the facts in the Republican Intelligence committee memo. They do say that some important context is missing and that should and will come out soon.

The Democrats wrote their own counter memo which the White House and FBI must scrub for any release of classified info. That process is slowly proceeding and having the curious effect of keeping the Republican memo front-and-center in the news.

Sometimes it is better to change the subject rather than keeping alive a story, that is hurting you.

But, the bottom line on this particular episode of a far-reaching political drama that is sure to go on for many more months, is this– high ranking FBI and DOJ officials with documented political antipathy to Donald Trump actively participated in presenting flagrantly flawed requests for search warrants to the FISA court.

At a minimum, the flawed filings represent malfeasance and incompetence at the highest level.

The story will not end here. This is just the beginning of the official revelations to the public, although many other things have already leaked. Expect this story to have constant new revelations and spur numerous Congressional investigations for years. So too, it is likely to entail a whole series of criminal investigations of Obama-era DOJ, FBI, State Department, intelligence agencies, and White House personnel before it is ended.

Media

Don’t forget the Tuchfarber 30 Day test — when you get upset about something in the news, ask if it is likely to be IMPORTANT in 30 days or so. Only seldom will it be so and you can usually ignore it.

Global Politics

Doomed N Korean Strategy

The N Koreans are engaged in one of their periodic phony Charm Campaigns. These have occurred around a number of Olympics and at other times. They have all proven to be cynical ruses with no change in their core strategy of obtaining nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them on ballistic missiles.

The North has sent athletes, cheerleaders, singers, and even Dictator Kim’s powerful sister to the games. They are competing in the games as One Korea in conjunction with the South.

They appear to have two goals. One is to charm the world into believing they are turning over a new leaf and are willing to “play nice.” The second is to drive a wedge between the US and S Korean leadership which is already far softer on the North than the US and is desperate to avoid a war that would devastate their country.

But all need to note that the strategic game has a totally new strategic reality to it now. That war no longer just threatens S Korea and the US troops there. It now threatens all the US’s major cities. Think about that for a minute…

S Korea has had a veto over what the US would do versus N Korea because only their country and the American troops there were really at risk. That veto is now weakened, if not moot.

VP Pence is representing the US at the games. He is scrupulously avoiding any outreach to the Kim regime through the sister or others. Shortly after the games, new US sanctions are promised.

The US strategy has proven to be one of steadily escalating sanctions and pressure on N Korea, on China, and on any others supporting or trading with the North. That strategy is working.

The desperate N Korea strategy at the Olympics is proof it is successful. So too is the fact that they have not conducted any nuclear or missile tests lately.

Enjoy the Olympics. Observe the propaganda. But, under the surface nothing has changed in terms of US strategy and resolve or N Korea’s unacceptable goals.

Trump & White House

Vetting Fiasco

Rob Porter, the White House Staff Secretary and key Trump aide, as well as at least one other White House staffer are out because of domestic violence claims against them. Don’t be surprised if others follow as the blame game is played out.

Trump’s substantive performance and successes have been exceptional, including last week’s budget deal. But, his tone and style have been poor, to say the least.

His vetting of personnel and that of his White House staff has also been poor. There are brilliant successes like Pence, Mattis, Tillerson and Haley. But, there are far too many failures like Manafort, Flynn, Scaramucci, Bannon, Omarosa, and now Porter.

Perhaps a top-to-bottom review headed by Pence or a prominent outsider might be wise.

The Democrats

What is the Democrat’s Strategy and Message now?

Does anyone know what the Democrat’s strategy and message is now?

Since a year ago and until a few days ago, it was Resist Trump at every turn and in every way. But, with the budget deal, debt ceiling deal, and other agreements last week, that strategy evaporated, at least for Schumer’s Senate caucus and for many Democrats in the House.

Nancy Pelosi soldiered on, but was abandoned by many of her colleagues after a grandstanding eight-hour filibuster destined to have zero effect.

The message and mantra for the grass roots and the leadership has been Resist Trump. Every Democrat voted against the increasingly popular Tax Bill in December. They appear to now realize that was a horrible political mistake as was the Schumer Shut-Down of the government for five days.

The Resist Trump strategy and message is in tatters as we approach the key 2018 primaries and general election.

What do they stand for?

Where do they want to take the country?

Hillary Clinton lost with a message of… I’m not Trump… It’s my turn… and, I’m a woman.

That was replaced for a year with… Resist Trump. Now that message is collapsing.

What now?

Critical Political & Economic Measures

This is a new section that will appear weekly. The measures are important in their own right, but also influence electoral politics.

POLITICAL MEASURES

  1. Right Direction-Wrong Track— This measure is widely used by pollsters, asking in effect if things are going well or badly in the US. Since 2006 it has proven to be a good indicator before elections if the party “in-power” [controlling the White House] was going to do well or badly. If the “wrong -track” reading is 62% or higher it bodes ill for them. If 58% or lower, they break even or gain. THIS IS MY MOST PREFERED ELECTION PREDICTION MEASURE. I use dozens, but this one seems to strip out a lot of noise. Using my adjustments to this measure as described in a note below, Right Direction now stands at 39% and Wrong-Track at 54%.
  2. Generic Congressional Ballot—Also used by many pollsters, this indicator measures the current preferences of voters for which party they prefer in US House races. My adjusted measures [see NOTE] are now 47% D and 40% R. Historically, Ds need a solid lead on this measure to win a House majority. They win huge majorities in some states and urban areas while the Republican votes produce more wins with smaller majorities—i.e., the R votes are more efficient. This phenomenon is due to both Ds packing themselves into some states and into urban cores as well as political gerrymandering by both parties.
  3. Presidential Approval—Trump’s approval, using my adjusted measure [see NOTE] is now 43%. It is at a below average level for recent Presidents. But, because of his unique and often disruptive style, the Gallup organization and others, including myself, believe this measure underestimates his real approval ratings by 5% or more. Many political science models make heavy use of this measure in their predictions. I will report it but will use it for trend analysis, not election predictions.

# NOTE: For the survey measures reported here, I will start with the RealClearPolitics.com data reported daily. For greater accuracy and timeliness, I will make the following adjustments:

  1. Use only polls conducted by non-partisan pollsters.
  2. Use only polls conducted in the last 14 days or so.
  3. Use only polls reporting results for registered or likely voters, not polls of all US adults. This is preferable for election prediction as compared to measuring overall public opinion.

ECONOMIC MEASURES

  1. Unemployment Rate [official: U-3]—The current level is 4.1%, a 17-year low. Low or falling levels of this measure are a positive for the “in” party. It is low and falling now, down from 4.8% a year ago.
  2. Unemployment Rate [broadest measure including under-employment: U-6]—The current level is at 8.2%. This is a very low level and has fallen from 9.4% a year ago.
  3. GDP GROWTH—Growth last quarter was 2.6% which is significantly higher than the average growth over the last 8 years.

WAR

  1. The jobs issue and war issue are the 500-pound gorillas of American public opinion. If the economy is bad or there is a major unpopular war, the party in power is in trouble. Unpopular wars, like Vietnam and Iraq, shatter the support of the party in power. Small wars like Afghanistan and Syria are nearly always underway and usually do not have major effects unless they grow substantially in the cost in US lives.

ANALYSIS

Among the Political Punditry, the conventional wisdom for months has been that a Democratic Wave was building that would gain them the House majority and minimize their losses in the Senate where they have many vulnerable seats.

I have disagreed and the predictions in the next section quantify that. I’ve disagreed because my preferred metric [right direction – wrong track] is in territory that predicts success for the Rs, the economic situation is excellent, and there is no major war.

Those measures could change, but as long as they stay where they are the Democrats will make only modest gains in November. If the indicators change, so too will my predictions.

Predictions

Election Predictions

Policy & Legislative Predictions

*NOTE: Remember that after being impeached by a Republican controlled House in 1998, not one Democratic Senator voted to remove Bill Clinton from office. It takes 67 votes and is more of a political process than a legal one. NO President has ever been impeached and removed. Richard Nixon resigned before the House and Senate could impeach and remove him from office.

Until next week…
Al Tuchfarber
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati

Al.Tuchfarber@gmail.com
Tuchfarber Political-Economics LLC, Inc.

Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the nation’s most accurate, while directing the social science Institute for Policy Research from 1975 to 2004. He also founded and directed the Institute for Health Policy from 1996 to 2004. He is an engaging and dynamic speaker and has published over 100 articles and papers about politics, society, and research methods.

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