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Messages to Syria, Russia and Iran; Trump Signals with Libby Pardon; N Korea to Talk De-Nuking

Al Tuchfarber

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

  1. The US- UK- French air attacks on Syria were designed to send messages to many.
  2. N Korea has agreed to discuss de-nuclearization.
  3. Trump’s highlights his powers to pardon with his clean slate for Scooter Libby.
  4. Is it possible no major trade war will occur?
  5. Prediction: The Democrats will gain 5 to 15 US House seats this fall.
  6. Prediction: The Republicans will gain 2 to 7 US Senate seats this November.

In-Depth

What’s Important

N Korea Agrees to Discuss Denuclearization

A very important story got minimal coverage last week.

N Korea has agreed to discuss denuclearization. Pyongyang has so informed Washington. S Korea has also confirmed this agreement.

Without such an agreement the planned meeting between Trump and Kim would make little sense.

Such an agreement does not mean N Korea is committing to destroying all its nukes and its ballistic missile program. What it means in detail is subject to negotiation, but the commitment is an essential first step to solving the N Korea problem.

This progress is consistent with my long-standing assertion that China has told Kim he will come to a modus vivendi with the US or that they, China, will strangle N Korea economically. China clearly can do so.

All indications are that “Emperor” Xi has decided the “war” of Kim versus the US and S Korea is no longer in China’s interest.

China wants the geographic and political buffer between itself and rich, democratic S Korea that the North represents but not a shooting war on its border or a nuclearized S Korea and Japan that will result if N Korea stays nuclearized.

Polls and Media

Don’t forget the Tuchfarber 30 Day test — when you get upset about something in the news, ask if it is likely to be IMPORTANT in 30 days or so. Only seldom will it be relevant then. So, ignore it and lower your blood pressure.

Gallup Poll: Trump and Evangelicals

A Gallup Report by Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport released last week confirms the continuation of President Trump’s staunch support from white, evangelical Protestants. They remain solidly in support of him.

This group has strongly supported Republicans for many years.

The 2016 exit polls showed Trump beating Clinton among the group 81 to 16 percent. White, Evangelical Christians were 26% of all voters in 2016.

Even in the face of the Porn Queen Stormy Daniels kerfuffle there is no identifiable move by evangelicals away from Trump or the Republicans. The flip-side of that is that increasingly secular, anti-religion Democratic progressives risk driving them even further from the Democratic Party.

Tuchfarber Global

Global Politics

Messages to Syria, Russia, and Others

I have been surprised at the inaccuracy and inanity of many analyses of the US-UK-French raid on Syrian chemical warfare facilities. The story is straight-forward in many ways and the implications for the future are reasonably clear.

Let’s start with basic facts:

  1. Chemical weapons like those used a week or so ago by the Assad regime against his own citizens are illegal in all circumstances under international law as well as in agreements that Assad’s government signed. Russia also signed those agreements and guaranteed their implementation. [Chemical warfare is, by definition, use of a weapon of mass destruction (WMD).]
  2. About a year ago the Trump administration ordered a limited strike on a Syrian airbase from which an earlier chemical attack had been launched. The chemical attack killed hundreds and the resulting US attack consisted of about 60 cruise missiles. The explicit message was, “The US will not allow you to use WMD with impunity.”
  3. Friday night, the US, UK, and France launched a precision, limited strike with a variety of cruise missiles on three Syria targets directly related to chemical weapons. They were a research and manufacturing facility and two logistics facilities at air bases. All three targets were destroyed.
  4. The sophisticated Russian-provided and operated anti- aircraft and missile batteries in Syria did NOT attempt to shoot down any of the missiles. They stood down.
  5. Syrian AA did try to respond but failed totally.
  6. The allies, seemingly purposely, fired twice the number of missile fired a year ago and fired at more vital targets.
  7. On Saturday, the US, UK, and French UN representatives blistered Syria for its attacks and Russia for abetting. Russia abets with military and political support, including use of its veto at the UN.

Now let’s move on to direct and indirect messages sent to and from various participants in the events.

  1. The US, UK, and France sent a clear message to Syria. “Don’t do it again or we will be back.” That may or may not deter Assad, but the US will escalate again if it does not.
  2. To Russia they said, “We hold you accountable for this and are going to label you a pariah if it continues.” Above all else, Russia wants the world’s respect and fear, and this message could be especially effective. But, it could also create a strong negative reaction. We’ll see. It comes at a time that Russia has been strongly sanctioned by the West and especially the US. Russia is comparatively weak and getting weaker economically and militarily. But, Putin has played his weak cards with considerable skill.
  3. A very important message is that the Trump administration is now eager to work with key allies against Syria, and other rogue regimes. This is a clear shift from Trump’s “go it alone” style. General Mattis and his wisdom and restraint are clearly at work.
  4. President Trump, declared, ineptly, several weeks ago, he wanted the US out of Syria. We are “in” Syria to defeat ISIS and now have the question of how to safeguard the Syrian rebels who have effectively helped us defeat them. Trump was inept because he appeared to signal Assad that he could do as he pleased as the US was getting out.
  5. The weekend’s attack also sent implicit messages to Iran and N Korea, both of whom have chemical weapons and are developing or have nuclear weapons. That message is that the US and its allies will not stand by if such weapons threaten those countries’ own citizens or others.

We’ll see what comes next. In the broader scheme of things Trump and the US are now confronting Putin at every turn. Earlier the President seemed to believe he could “deal” with Putin, but Russia’s President is not one to trust at any level.

After eight years of G W Bush blunders in the Middle-East, getting the US into “nation building,” Trump now, sometimes ineptly, rejects such efforts. He has made it clear regime change in Syria is not US policy.  But, chemical weapons use and WMD development are betes noires.

The Obama administration drew red lines it did not enforce and used diplomacy in mostly wasted effort. The Trump doctrine is different from both.

Tidbits, Follow-U, Nuggets and Reminders

This section is devoted to short, interesting items, and brief follow-ups to stories from previous issues.

A reminder about prosecuting president trump

There is a lot of breathless nonsense in the media that the next great revelation, whatever it might be, will bring down President Trump.

ALL NEED TO GET A GRIP ON REALITY.

Neither the Federal or state courts can or will prosecute Trump while he is President.

The Constitutional legal-political reasoning is simple and is embedded in both the Constitution and Federal case law. If a president is constantly subjected to legal prosecution, he cannot do his job as President. The US must have a national leader and that person, for better or worse, is the sitting President.

Therefore, the Supreme Court has ruled that any President can only be prosecuted by Congress through the impeachment and removal process.

As I note below in my predictions section, the odds he will be impeached AND removed by the current Congress or the next one starting in January 2019 are essentially zero. That is true even if the Democrats take the House and the Senate this fall.

Trump the Trade Warrior

There have been tens of thousands of stories and commentaries about President Trump starting trade wars that will devastate the US and global economies. It might be good to look at the reality occasionally.

Consider:

  1. The US-S Korean KORUS treaty has been re-negotiated and is ready to sign.
  2. The NAFTA treaty is close to finalization and likely to be ready to sign within weeks.
  3. Hundreds of exemptions have been given to announced tariffs.
  4. Trump has expressed interest in re-joining the Trans Pacific Partnership[TPP] talks if appropriate changes are made.
  5. Trump and President Xi are clearly engaged is a give-and-take to prevent a major trade war between the counties.

Try to pull back and look at the facts before going off the deep end. Almost everything with Trump involves getting a good deal, or at least the best deal possible. That does not mean his methods are the best methods, but there is a method and there is a strategy.

A Message from the Pardon of Scooter Libby

At long last Scooter Libby has been pardoned. He was jailed for lying about a crime neither he nor anyone else committed. Ironically, he was prosecuted by another rogue Special Counsel, Patrick Fitzgerald. G W Bush, unforgivably, did not pardon Libby, instead just commuting his sentence after time in jail.

President Trump did the right thing in pardoning Libby, but it is the timing that is more interesting.

Just days ago, Special Counsel Mueller threatened all Americans 6th amendment constitutional right to counsel. He did so by seizing Trump attorney Michael Cohen’s records.

Trump reminds all with the Libby action that he can pardon anyone he wants. That was no accident.

Speaker Ryan’s Resignation

Paul Ryan announced his retirement as Speaker of the House at the end of this term. That set off a battle for his job. Let’s allow a bit of dust to settle before we handicap that race.

Ryan did a very good job and is responsible, along with Senate Majority Leader McConnell, for many of the Trump administration’s wins this year and last.

He is not likely to stay out of public service for more than a few years. I expect him back as a Senate candidate or a cabinet officer after his kids are in college a few years from now.

He is also likely to be a future presidential candidate.

His departure does little to change the handicapping of the 2018 election. The suggestions from politicians of both parties, as well as the press that his departure signals big problems for the Rs are vastly overblown.

Roseanne

The reprise of the “Roseanne” TV show continued to have blockbuster ratings last week with over 13M viewers on Tuesday and many more since. The show is by far the #1 rated regular TV offering. For comparison, the top-rated cable news shows on Fox and MSNBC are seen by about 3M viewers.

Predictive Political & Economic Measures

2018 Election Prediction Summary

Below are several election and policy predictions that I present each week and change if my indicators change. Speaking only to the 2018 election predictions, my current evaluation is:

  1. The Republicans will lose 5 to 15 net US House seats but maintain a small majority.
  2. The Democrats will lose 2 to 7 US Senate seats with the Republicans adding to their current razor-thin 51-49 majority.

POLITICAL MEASURES

  1. Right Direction-Wrong Track— This measure is widely used by pollsters, asking if things are going well or badly in the US. It has proven to be a good indicator if the party “in-power” was going to do well or badly. If the “wrong-track” reading is 62% or higher, it bodes ill for them. If 58% or lower, they do well. THIS IS MY MOST-PREFERRED ELECTION PREDICTION MEASURE. I use many quantitative and qualitative indicators, but this one seems to strip out a lot of extraneous noise. “Wrong-Track” is now at 57%, up 1% from last week.
  2. Generic Congressional Ballot—Also used by many pollsters, this indicator measures the current preferences of voters for which party they prefer in US House races. The polls I’m averaging are now at 45% D and 38% R, the D lead up 1% from last week. More important is that the Democratic lead has fallen from about 13% at the beginning of 2018 to 7% now. Historically, Ds need a solid lead on this measure to win a House majority.
  3. Presidential Approval—Trump’s approval rating, using my measure, is now 43%, unchanged from last week. His approval rating is up from 40% at the start of the year. It’s at a below average level for recent Presidents. But, because of his unique and often disruptive style, the Gallup organization and others, including myself, believe this measure underestimates his real approval ratings by 5% or more. I will report his approval rating, but will use it for trend analysis, not election predictions.

ECONOMIC MEASURES

  1. U-3 official unemployment rate—The current level is 4.1%, a 17-year low. Low or falling levels of this measure are a positive for the “in” party. It is low and falling now, down from 4.8% a year ago.
  2. U-6 unemployment rate [broadest measure, including under-employment]—The current level is 8.0%. This is a very low level and fell from 9.4% a year ago.
  3. GDP GROWTH—Growth last quarter was 2.9% which is significantly higher than the average growth over the last eight years.

WAR

  1. The jobs issue and war issue are the 500-pound gorillas of American public opinion. If the economy is bad or there is a major unpopular war, the party in power is in trouble. Unpopular wars, like Vietnam and Iraq, shatter their support. Small wars, like Afghanistan and Syria are nearly always underway and usually do not have major effect unless they grow substantially in the cost in US lives.

ANALYSIS

Among the Political Punditry, the conventional wisdom for months has been that a Democratic Wave was building that would gain them the House majority and minimize their losses in the Senate, where they have many vulnerable seats.

I have disagreed and the predictions in the next section quantify that. I’ve demurred because my preferred metric [right direction-wrong track] is in territory that predicts relative success for the Rs. In addition, economic growth and job creation are excellent, and there is no major war.

The measures above could change, but if they stay where they are, the Democrats will make only modest gains in November. If the indicators change, so too will my predictions.

Predictions

No major changes this week.

Election Predictions

Policy & Legislative Predictions

*NOTE: Remember that after being impeached by a Republican controlled House in 1998, not one Democratic Senator voted to remove Bill Clinton from office. It takes 67 votes and is more of a political process than a legal one. NO President has ever been impeached and removed. Richard Nixon resigned before the House and Senate could impeach and remove him from office.

Until next week…
Al Tuchfarber
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati

Al.Tuchfarber@gmail.com
Tuchfarber Political-Economics LLC, Inc.

Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the nation’s most accurate, while directing the social science Institute for Policy Research from 1975 to 2004. He also founded and directed the Institute for Health Policy from 1996 to 2004. He is an engaging and dynamic speaker and has published over 100 articles and papers about politics, society, and research methods.

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