Site icon Tuchfarber Report

N Korea Capitulating?; Comey Helps Vindicate Trump; All Learn to Dislike Comey

Al Tuchfarber

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

  1. N Korea is capitulating to US and Chinese demands because it has no other viable choice.
  2. Comey memos partially exonerate Trump on collusion with Russia and obstruction of justice.
  3. Comey now reviled by Democrats and Republicans.
  4. Criminal prosecution of Comey likely.
  5. China becomes more totalitarian and warns on finances.
  6. Hillary joins Trump and Pelosi as 2018’s “boogie men.”

In-Depth

What’s Important

N Korea Says it Agrees to Denuclearization and End to Missile Tests

Once again, very important news from the N Koreans got inadequate coverage last week.

N Korea has agreed to denuclearization and to end its missile tests, at least for now. Pyongyang has so informed Washington. S Korea has confirmed this agreement.

BUT, NO ONE SHOULD ASSUME EVERYTHING WILL GO SMOOTHLY AND THAT PEACE WILL REIGN.

As many are appropriately pointing out, we’ve seen many N Korean “Charm Campaigns” over the years. They are consummate liars and cheats. All need to keep that in mind.

But, there are three major differences this time that are not in N Korea’s direct or indirect control.

They are:

  1. N Korea has, or can shortly have, the capability to obliterate one or more major US city. That changes the strategic calculus completely for the US. In the past S Korea had a veto over any US led deal with the North. They still have an important voice, as does Japan, but the basic state of the negotiations has shifted to a situation where the US will make strong, almost absolute, demands to protect its cities. This is now existential for the US for the first time.
  2. China has made it clear, by its words and actions, that a nuclear N Korea is no longer in its interest. China has mostly joined the UN sanctions and has almost single-handedly economically strangled N Korea. Without fuel supplies from China, N Korea’s economy and civilization will wither and die.
  3. The third new element is President Trump whose policies toward the North and commitment to them are different from those of Clinton, Bush, or Obama. He has made it clear that he will “walk” if Kim is not forthcoming with an adequate deal. He is also prepared to take whatever steps are necessary to protect the US. And, crucially important, he and Chinese President Xi are clearly on the same page at least insofar as agreeing that N Korea and the entire Korean peninsula must be denuclearized.

So, all should be cautious about their hopes and assumptions, but also recognize that the strategic facts on the ground have changed markedly. Things may turn out well or badly, but this time things will be different.

The Comey Memos

To document his face-to-face meetings with President-elect Trump and new President Trump, James Comey, the FBI Director, wrote extensive notes immediately following their six meetings. Those notes are now known as the Comey Memos.

They are worth reading, but I’ll focus on quotes from Comey that relate directly to the accusations levelled at Trump about colluding with the Russians and obstructing justice in the post-election period, when the collusion allegations were being investigated.

Keep in mind that Comey has repeatedly asserted he did not and does not like or respect Trump and has no reason to try to exonerate him.

About a March 30, 2017 meeting with Trump, Comey writes, “I reminded him that I had told him we weren’t investigating him and that I had told the Congressional leadership the same thing.”

In the next paragraph, Comey wrote, “He said that if there was ‘some satellite’ (NOTE: I took this to mean some associate of his or his campaign) that did something, it would be good to find that out, but that he hadn’t done anything and hoped I would find a way to get out that we weren’t investigating him.”

Comey’s final memo on April 11, 2017 doesn’t modify the clear point that the FBI was NOT investigating Trump himself and had so informed the Congress. The memos also make clear he told the FBI Director to pursue his [Trump’s] associates if they had done something illegal.

Do these facts totally exonerate Trump on the collusion and obstruction of justice charges. No, not completely.

But, imagine a future US House of Representatives or Senate trying to “convict” Trump of “high crimes” or “misdemeanors” on these charges in light of this straightforward evidence from the FBI Director.

The allegations will not go away anytime soon because the Democrats and mainstream media want to beat-up on Trump at every turn, but the simple truth appears to be …” There is no There, There.”

Election 2018

The Hillary and Nancy Show

I had fully expected, along with almost all other political analysts, that the targets of derision and disgust in this year’s election campaign would be Trump and Pelosi…one “horror” for each party to rail against. Trump provides no end of targets for Democrats with a steady diet of unwise tweets and a stormy past. Pelosi’s “crumb” comments and promise to repeal the people’s tax cuts make her an easy target.

But, low and behold, Nancy has been joined by Hillary. Her endless “Whine and Blame Everyone” tour continues. She continues to remind all that she called tens of millions of American voters “deplorable” and has added to that the assertion that American women are subservient to their husbands.

What planet is she on?

These assertions go over well with Middle America…NOT.

It’s no wonder HRC’s favorable rating has fallen to 27%.

So, expect to see her in numerous anti-Democrat ads this fall with tag lines like…” Aren’t you glad she is not our President?”

Trump will be an effective boogie man for the Democrats, but the Hillary and Nancy show may be an equal match in unpopularity.

Polls and Media

Don’t forget the Tuchfarber 30 Day test — when you get upset about something in the news, ask if it is likely to be IMPORTANT in 30 days or so. Only seldom will it be relevant then. So, ignore it and lower your blood pressure.

Global Politics

China Watch

Three major things to report about China this week:

  1. China announced that its first quarter GDP came in at the expected 6.8%. Many do not believe such Chinese statistics. More telling is that China’s financial regulators announced that the reserve requirements for China’s banks are being reduced to produce more lending in the face of fears of an economic slowdown.
  2. “Emperor” Xi, China’s totalitarian leader, announced that, “We cannot let the internet become a platform for disseminating harmful information and stirring up trouble with rumors.” It seems that he and companies like Facebook, Google, Twitter, and American academia, as well as totalitarians elsewhere, fear free speech.
  3. China’s economic and financial commentators have started to warn that the massive infrastructure and commercial projects that are part of the “One Belt-One Road” strategy in S Asia, the Middle-East, Africa and Eastern Europe are potentially at risk of default due to the financial weakness of Chinese firms and the economies in the countries where the projects are underway. It is likely the Chinese are beginning to realize they are far too financially overextended and too much in debt at home and increasingly abroad.

Tidbits, Follow-ups, Nuggets and Reminders

This section is devoted to short, interesting items, and brief follow-ups to stories from previous issues.

James Comey’s Future and Ours

Another quasi political tour besides Hillary’s is underway in the form of James Comey’s “I’m Saintlier Than All of You” tour to tout his book. Comey has scored a remarkable trifecta. The Republicans hate him…the Democrats hate him…and, even Independents are coming to dislike him.

He is likely to stay in the news for some time. He is good for ratings, which makes him valuable for a while.

But, he has interesting days ahead. He clearly lied to Congress under oath. That is illegal. And, he is being investigated by the Justice Department for leaking classified documents

People keep asking, “When is the Mueller investigation going to end?” And, “Can’t we move on to substance instead of all these investigations?” The simple answer is NO.

As I have said repeatedly for many months, we are in the EARLY stages of discovering all the senior people at the DOJ, FBI, and the Obama White House and administration who broke the law or severely bent the rules.

The investigations of those things will be underway long after Mueller has hung up his spurs. In fact, don’t be surprised if the Special Counsel’s methods and practices themselves end up in court for years.

The Message to Syria and the World

Many are making the US-UK-French airstrike into something it was not designed to be. Yes, it degraded Syrian chemical warfare capabilities but was not designed to do that more than partially. It was not designed to seriously weaken the Assad regime or make him lose the civil war he is fighting.

It was simply a message from the Trump administration, carefully crafted by the President and General Mattis, that if you cross the redline in the use of weapons of mass destruction [WMDs], you will pay a serious price.

A year ago, it was modest damage to one airfield. Two weeks ago, it was roughly double the payload to more valuable assets. If there is a next time the escalation will continue until Assad gets the message from the civilized world.

The messages, however, were not just directed at Syria. Iran and N Korea were also targets with their WMD programs. Give the President and Mattis credit for sending clear, appropriate messages.

Predictive Political & Economic Measures

2018 election prediction summary

Below are several election and policy predictions that I present each week and change if my indicators change. Speaking only to the 2018 election predictions, my current evaluation is:

  1. The Republicans will lose 5 to 15 net US House seats but maintain a small majority.
  2. The Democrats will lose 2 to 7 US Senate seats with the Republicans adding to their current razor-thin 51-49 majority.

POLITICAL MEASURES

  1. Right Direction-Wrong Track— This measure is widely used by pollsters, asking if things are going well or badly in the US. It has proven to be a good indicator if the party “in-power” was going to do well or badly. If the “wrong-track” reading is 62% or higher, it bodes ill for them. If 58% or lower, they do well. THIS IS MY MOST-PREFERRED ELECTION PREDICTION MEASURE. I use many quantitative and qualitative indicators, but this one seems to strip out a lot of extraneous noise. “Wrong-Track” is now at 57%, unchanged from last week.
  2. Generic Congressional Ballot—Also used by many pollsters, this indicator measures the current preferences of voters for which party they prefer in US House races. The polls I’m averaging are now at 45% D and 38% R, the D lead unchanged from last week. More important is that the Democratic lead has fallen from about 13% at the beginning of 2018 to 7% now. Historically, Ds need a solid lead on this measure to win a House majority.
  3. Presidential Approval—Trump’s approval rating, using my measure, is now 43%, unchanged from last week. His approval rating is up from 40% at the start of the year. It’s at a below average level for recent Presidents. But, because of his unique and often disruptive style, the Gallup organization and others, including myself, believe this measure underestimates his real approval ratings by 5% or more. I will report his approval rating, but will use it for trend analysis, not election predictions.

ECONOMIC MEASURES

  1. U-3 official unemployment rate—The current level is 4.1%, a 17-year low. Low or falling levels of this measure are a positive for the “in” party. It is low and falling now, down from 4.8% a year ago.
  2. U-6 unemployment rate [broadest measure, including under-employment]—The current level is 8.0%. This is a very low level and fell from 9.4% a year ago.
  3. GDP GROWTH—Growth last quarter was 2.9% which is significantly higher than the average growth over the last eight years.

WAR

  1. The jobs issue and war issue are the 500-pound gorillas of American public opinion. If the economy is bad or there is a major unpopular war, the party in power is in trouble. Unpopular wars, like Vietnam and Iraq, shatter their support. Small wars, like Afghanistan and Syria are nearly always underway and usually do not have major effect unless they grow substantially in the cost in US lives.

ANALYSIS

President Trump had a very good end to last week. The Comey memos mostly exonerate him from Russian collusion and obstruction of justice charges. James Comey essentially self-destructed on his book tour and on multiple national television shows. He made it clear why Trump fired him.

More important for the future of the country and world is that Kim Jong-un of N Korea appears ready to de-nuclearize the Korean peninsula in what would be an astounding coup for the US and Trump.

Among the Political Punditry, the conventional wisdom for months has been that a Democratic Wave was building that would gain them the House majority and minimize their losses in the Senate, where they have many vulnerable seats.

I have disagreed and the predictions in the next section quantify that. I’ve demurred because my preferred metric [right direction-wrong track] is in territory that predicts relative success for the Rs. In addition, economic growth and job creation are excellent, and there is no major war.

The measures above could change, but if they stay where they are, the Democrats will make only modest gains in November. If the indicators change, so too will my predictions.

Soon we will have a raft of primary elections in the states to give us new grist for analysis.

Predictions

No major changes this week

Election Predictions

Policy & Legislative Predictions

*NOTE: Remember that after being impeached by a Republican controlled House in 1998, not one Democratic Senator voted to remove Bill Clinton from office. It takes 67 votes and is more of a political process than a legal one. NO President has ever been impeached and removed. Richard Nixon resigned before the House and Senate could impeach and remove him from office.

Until next week…
Al Tuchfarber
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati

Al.Tuchfarber@gmail.com
Tuchfarber Political-Economics LLC, Inc.

Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the nation’s most accurate, while directing the social science Institute for Policy Research from 1975 to 2004. He also founded and directed the Institute for Health Policy from 1996 to 2004. He is an engaging and dynamic speaker and has published over 100 articles and papers about politics, society, and research methods.

Exit mobile version