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N Korea Caves to Trump & XI; Kanye West Threatens Dems; Pelosi – No Impeachment Talk

Al Tuchfarber

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

  1. N Korea is capitulating to US and Chinese demands because it has no other viable choice.
  2. The “bromance” of Kanye West and other black entertainers with President Trump threatens the Democratic Party’s lock on the black vote.
  3. Nancy Pelosi recognizes that talk of impeaching Trump is back-firing on the Democrats.
  4. The Rasmussen Poll documents that likely voters trust neither the political news they are getting, nor the polls on which much of that news is based.
  5. The Trump Foreign Policy Doctrine includes a commitment not to tell other nations how to live, govern, or worship. That has major consequences for the Korean negotiations.
  6. PREDICTIONS: The Democrats will gain 5 to 15 US House seats this fall. But they will lose 2 to 7 US Senate seats.

In-Depth

What’s Important

N Korea Agrees to Denuclearization and Peace

N Korea has agreed to denuclearization and a peaceful end to the Korean War, which had officially been in a truce for more than 60 years.

N Korea’s Kim and S Korea’s President Moon Jae-in just completed a love-fest and the North promised to denuclearize, creating the possibility of a totally denuclearized Korean peninsula.

President Trump and Kim are scheduled to meet in May or June, but the two key players don’t include Kim. Trump and Chinese President Xi are the ones really calling the shots.

IMPORTANTLY– NO ONE SHOULD ASSUME EVERYTHING WILL GO SMOOTHLY AND THAT PEACE WILL REIGN. AS ALWAYS, THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS.

As many are appropriately pointing out, we’ve seen many N Korean “Charm Campaigns” over the years. They are consummate liars and cheats. All need to keep that in mind.

But there are three major differences this time that are not in N Korea’s direct or indirect control. Trump and Xi control these vital aspects of the situation.

They are:

  1. N Korea has, or can shortly have, the capability to obliterate one or more major US city. That changes the strategic calculus completely for the US. In the past, S Korea had a veto over any US led deal with the North or a military strike on the North. They still have an important voice, as does Japan, but the basic state of the negotiations has shifted to a situation where the US will make strong, almost absolute, demands to protect its cities. This is now existential for the US for the first time.
  2. China has made it clear, by its words and actions, that a nuclear N Korea is no longer in its interest. China has mostly joined the UN sanctions and has, almost single-handedly, economically strangled N Korea. Without fuel supplies from China, N Korea’s economy, civilization, and the Kim dynasty will wither and die. [China now has near total control of N Korea’s oil and fuel supplies. It has cut shipments to Kim’s regime by 95%. That is economic strangulation, by any definition.]
  3. The third new element is President Trump, whose policies toward the North and commitment to them are different from those of Clinton, Bush, or Obama. He has made it clear that he will “walk” if Kim is not forthcoming with an adequate deal. He is also prepared to take whatever steps are necessary to protect the US. And, crucially important, he and Chinese President Xi are clearly on the same page, at least insofar as agreeing that N Korea and the entire Korean peninsula must be denuclearized. S Korea’s President Moon, himself a leftist, has proclaimed Trump’s toughness and the international sanctions as the main reasons an incredible breakthrough is possible.

So, all should be cautious about their hopes and assumptions, but also recognize that the strategic facts on the ground have changed markedly. Things may turn out well or badly, but this time things will be different. Things could get much better or much worse.

Nobel Prize

Several politicians and others have suggested President Trump receive the Nobel Peace Prize if N Korea agrees to denuclearize. Let’s hold off on that until we see what transpires.

But if the Korean peninsula is denuclearized, both Trump and President Xi of China will deserve to share such a prize. Both have been and will be essential players in forcing Kim Jong-un to give up his weapons of mass destruction.

Elections

AZ-08 Special Election

The Arizona special election for an open US House seat is like other special elections over the past two years. It tells us little about what will happen this fall. The Republican won by 5% but the district is normally much more Republican-red than that. Sounds bad for the Rs, but historically special elections aren’t good predictors of general election results.

My focus continues to be on a series of political and economic metrics detailed later in the blog.

Kanye West and the Black vote

Kanye West, the famous rap artist, is enormously wealthy and influential.  He is now certain to become even better known because he has come out in support of Donald Trump. The left, the media, and the entertainment world are going off on him as a traitor and a fool. A handful of other black artists are supporting him. Trump is emphasizing that black unemployment is at a record low and that the Democrats have had generations to better the lives of African-Americans, especially those in the inner-city, and have not had much success.

Pay attention to how West is treated, and the methods used against him. That will be informative for many.

I don’t know whether this initiative by West will produce any meaningful change in the black community, but I can explain why the left is panicked.

Consider the following facts:

  1. In Barack Obama’s two Presidential elections he won the black vote 94% to 4%.
  2. Hillary Clinton won the black vote 88% to 8%. She won the popular vote by just under 3 million votes. She won the black vote by about 13 million votes [that is not a typo].
  3. The typical election over the past two decades has seen the black vote split about 89% for Democrats and 9% for Republicans.
  4. It is entirely correct to say that the black vote is essential to Democratic Party hopes for victory in most states and many congressional districts.

Thus, the hysteria about Kanye West and the Trump bromance.

Black conservatives have long bemoaned what they called the “slavery” of black voters to the Democratic party. That cry is now being picked up by black artists allying themselves with West.

Stay tuned…this could turn out to be a “nothing-burger” or emerge as the biggest election story of 2018.

Polls and Media

Neither Polls Nor Media Trusted

The Rasmussen Poll reported several interesting findings last week.

On a personal note…I was a political pollster for more than 30 years. These findings make me glad I am no longer an active pollster, just a consumer of them.

Gallup Prediction of Trump Re-Election

Several conservative analysts have suggested a recent Gallup Report is good news for Trump and the Rs. The report said that Trump’s approval rating now is the same as were Bill Clinton’s in 1994 and Barack Obama’s in 2010, the same points in their presidencies. Because both went on to win re-election, the implication is that Trump will do the same. History shows that is not a safe conclusion.

I am on-record in the Predictions Section below that Trump has an 80 to 85% likelihood of being re-elected, but that has nothing to do with his current approval ratings. GHW Bush had a 91% approval rating in 1991 and lost to Bill Clinton in 1992.

Both Clinton and Obama had huge defeats in their respective 1994 and 2010 congressional elections.

Trump’s approval in 2020 will help us predict whether he gets re-elected then. Today’s approval numbers tell us little about an election more than 30-months away.

In fact, because of Trump’s uniqueness, I am on record each week in this blog saying that Trump’s approval ratings are higher than reported and NOT good predictors of upcoming elections.

I regularly report other metrics I believe to be more predictive.

Don’t forget the Tuchfarber 30 Day test — when you get upset about something in the news, ask if it is likely to be IMPORTANT in 30 days or so. Only seldom will it be relevant then. So, ignore it and lower your blood pressure.

Global Politics

Trump Doctrine

The possibility of an incredible breakthrough with N Korea is very exciting. The lead story here today outlines the possibilities. Little noted so far, and sure to become a major point of interest, is an aspect of the Trump Foreign Policy Doctrine.

I have frequently made the point that Kim Jong-un cares about only three things…his life, his luxuries, and his dynasty. Kim and his family are vicious thugs. Doesn’t that mean they must be replaced by new leaders in N Korea? Aren’t the N Korean people entitled to human and civil rights?

But, if those things were conditions of a deal with Trump and the S Koreans, why would Kim negotiate with Trump? He wouldn’t. He couldn’t because some his own people would topple his regime if they had a chance.

The Trump Doctrine does NOT require regime change or substantial political change in N Korea.

Consider this quote from Trump’s famous speech in Saudi Arabia last year. “America is a sovereign nation and our first priority is always the safety and security of our citizens. We are not here to lecture—we are not here to tell other people how to live, what to do, who to be, or how to worship. Instead, we are here to offer partnership—based on shared interests and values—to pursue a better future for us all.”

Trump has repeatedly rejected “nation-building” by the US. His doctrine includes, topmost, emphasis on the American people. Bottom line—if N Korea and Kim stop threatening the US, Japan and S Korea, they can keep their repressive system and Kim can keep his dynasty.

When that sinks in, there are going to be howls from the many world human rights advocates.  They are going to go ballistic.

Stay tuned…

Iran is Next

As the negotiations with Kim play-out, keep in mind the tenuous situation with Iran’s leaders. They threaten to make Iran a nuclear power. They are developing long-range missiles with N Korea’s help. They support terrorists worldwide and are attempting to dominate Iraq and Syria the way they already dominate Lebanon.

Iran is more of a medium and long-term threat than is N Korea, which is an immediate threat. But Iran is next in Trump’s gunsights. All should learn well whatever lessons we gather from what happens in the US-N Korean negotiations.

China Watch

China’s leaders are on record stating their intention of replacing the US as the Number One world power by 2050.

One step in that process is to supplant the US dollar as the world’s major currency with the yuan/renminbi. China and its allies in Iran, Venezuela and Russia have recently set up non-dollar trading mechanisms in oil and other commodities.

So far, it’s not working. US dollar dominance of currency reserves in the world’s central banks is going up, not down.

88 percent of all international foreign-exchange trading includes the dollar on one-side of the trade. The Chinese yuan is at 4%.

I bring this up for two reasons. The first is to provide regular reporting on China—both positive and negative.

The second is to emphasize the dominance of the US in the world economy and in world politics.

Many around the world, including many in Europe and the US, believe that China is now the Number One power. China still pales in comparison to the US on many, many important metrics. That is why China’s own leaders have given themselves a goal of catching the US—30 years from now.

Tidbits, Follow-ups, Nuggets, and Reminders

This section is devoted to short, interesting items, and brief follow-ups to stories from previous issues.

Nancy Pelosi

I have remarked several times in this blog that threats to impeach Donald Trump were likely to backfire on the Democrats the way the Republican impeachment of Bill Clinton did in 1998. Nancy Pelosi now agrees.

During a news conference last Thursday, she discouraged Democrats from talking about impeachment. In her words “…it’s a gift to the Republicans to talk about impeachment.”

It is a gift to the Republicans because it helps to energize the Republican-Trump base for the crucial fall elections.

Steny Hoyer

Steny Hoyer [D-MD] is 2nd in command in the US House for the Democrats. He got some negative press for pushing a “progressive” Democrat out of a competitive House race. Hoyer is from the traditional wing of the Democratic Party, the wing the “progressives” are trying to overthrow. As the Tea Party and traditional Rs did in 2008 to 2012, the Ds have an active civil war underway.

Predictive Political & Economic Measures

2018 election prediction summary

Below are several election and policy predictions that I present each week and change if my indicators change. Speaking only to the 2018 election predictions, my current evaluation is:

  1. The Republicans will lose 5 to 15 net US House seats but maintain a small majority.
  2. The Democrats will lose 2 to 7 US Senate seats with the Republicans adding to their current razor-thin 51-49 majority.

POLITICAL MEASURES

  1. Right Direction-Wrong Track— This measure is widely used by pollsters, asking if things are going well or badly in the US. It has proven to be a good indicator if the party “in-power” was going to do well or badly. If the “wrong-track” reading is 62% or higher, it bodes ill for them. If 58% or lower, they do well. THIS IS MY MOST-PREFERRED ELECTION PREDICTION MEASURE. I use many quantitative and qualitative indicators, but this one seems to strip out a lot of extraneous noise. “Wrong-Track” is now at 54%, down a substantial 3% from last week.
  2. Generic Congressional Ballot—Also used by many pollsters, this indicator measures the current preferences of voters for which party they prefer in US House races. The polls I’m averaging are now at 45% D and 37% R, the D lead up 1% from last week. More important is that the Democratic lead has fallen from about 13% at the beginning of 2018 to 8% now. Historically, Ds need a solid lead on this measure to win a House majority.
  3. Presidential Approval—Trump’s approval rating, using my measure, is now 43%, unchanged from last week. His approval rating is up from 40% at the start of the year. It’s at a below average level for recent Presidents. But, because of his unique and often disruptive style, the Gallup organization and others, including myself, believe this measure underestimates his real approval ratings by 5% or more. I will report his approval rating, but will use it for trend analysis, not election predictions.

ECONOMIC MEASURES

  1. U-3 official unemployment rate—The current level is 4.1%, a 17-year low. Low or falling levels of this measure are a positive for the “in” party. It is low and falling now, down from 4.8% a year ago.
  2. U-6 unemployment rate [broadest measure, including under-employment]—The current level is 8.0%. This is a very low level and fell from 9.4% a year ago.
  3. GDP GROWTH—Growth last quarter was 2.3% which is significantly higher than the average growth over the last eight years.

WAR

  1. The jobs issue and war issue are the 500-pound gorillas of American public opinion. If the economy is bad or there is a major unpopular war, the party in power is in trouble. Unpopular wars, like Vietnam and Iraq, shatter their support. Small wars, like Afghanistan and Syria are nearly always underway and usually do not have major effect unless they grow substantially in the cost in US lives.

ANALYSIS

President Trump had an extremely good week last week.

Most important for the future of the country and world is that Kim Jong-un of N Korea appears ready to de-nuclearize the Korean peninsula in what would be an astounding coup for the US, Trump, and China’s Xi.

France’s Macron and Germany’s Merkel separately visited Trump last week and for the first time appeared to realize that he is the world’s real leader, for better or worse. That is hard for them to swallow, but it is the reality.

In Moscow President Putin is gagging on sanctions against his oligarchs and companies imposed by Trump. The theocrats in Iran are blustering but know they are next.

At home, James Comey continues  to sell lots of books but also self-destruct with contradiction after contradiction.

THE PUNDITS

Among the Political Punditry, the conventional wisdom for months has been that a Democratic Wave was building that would gain them the House majority and minimize their losses in the Senate, where they have many vulnerable seats.

I have disagreed and the predictions in the next section quantify that. I’ve demurred because my preferred metric [right direction-wrong track] is in territory that predicts relative success for the Rs. In addition, economic growth and job creation are excellent, and there is no major war.

The measures above could change, but if they stay where they are, the Democrats will make only modest gains in November. If the indicators change, so too will my predictions.

Soon we will have a raft of primary elections in the states to give us new grist for analysis.

Predictions

No major changes this week

Election Predictions

Policy & Legislative Predictions

*NOTE: Remember that after being impeached by a Republican controlled House in 1998, not one Democratic Senator voted to remove Bill Clinton from office. It takes 67 votes and is more of a political process than a legal one. NO President has ever been impeached and removed. Richard Nixon resigned before the House and Senate could impeach and remove him from office.

Until next week…
Al Tuchfarber
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati

Al.Tuchfarber@gmail.com
Tuchfarber Political-Economics LLC, Inc.

Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the nation’s most accurate, while directing the social science Institute for Policy Research from 1975 to 2004. He also founded and directed the Institute for Health Policy from 1996 to 2004. He is an engaging and dynamic speaker and has published over 100 articles and papers about politics, society, and research methods.

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