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Al

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

1. After a great deal of hysteria from Democrats and Republicans, the family separation issue appears to have changed little politically.
2. Good signs from N Korea.
3. Turnout of voters in November… neither party has a big advantage.
4. Is Trump changing the Republican Party? Yes and No.
5. The Supreme Court makes gerrymandering cases harder to win.

EXPECT A SPECIAL REPORT LATER THIS WEEK ON THE ACCURACY OF MY 2018 PREDICTIONS

In-Depth

What’s Important

What is Kim Jong-un’s Government Telling His People?

N Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship with no free press…none. Not even the internet and social media penetrate to the average citizen. Because of that, the N Korean people know only what their government’s propaganda ministry wants them to know.

After the initial euphoria, US media reporting on the Trump-Kim deal, by both liberal and conservative media, has been negative or exhibited a “wait and see” tone.

But– what is Kim telling his own people? If Kim was going to renege on the agreement, you would expect the N Koreans would be told little about the Trump-Kim summit and its deal.

Neither is the case. Both a liberal source, the BBC, and a conservative one, the Washington Times, report that an encouraging story is being communicated to the N Korean people.

Promises of more economic development and a better life are being promulgated. This may seem trivial, predictable political hype, but it is the opposite of that in a dictatorship. Dictatorships cannot safely promise progress or a better life unless they are almost positive they can deliver. Make big promises…fail to deliver…and the people, or enemies of the regime, will revolt. That is a risk Kim would not take.

Trump, the US, and S Korea are being vilified far less. The value of ties to S Korea is being heralded.

To say the tone has changed is a vast understatement. The official media reflect this change, and travel guides escorting foreign tourists report the same messages resonate on the street.

Kim Jong-un has proven to be a skilled foe. None of these changes is accidental.

They suggest he is serious about making a deal.

Still, the proof is in the pudding. Reagan’s advice of “trust, but verify” is essential, but it does appear the calculus has shifted dramatically.

Long-Term

THIS IS PART ONE OF A TWO PART SERIES. THE SECOND PART WILL APPEAR IN THE JULY 2 TUCHFARBER REPORT.

Is Donald Trump Changing the Republican Party Forever?

The answer to the question above is mostly… NO.

But, the answers to related questions are mostly YES.

The related questions are:

• Does Trump control the official party organization?… YES
• Does Trump now have substantially more influence in the party than anyone else?… YES
• Does a Trump endorsement in a Republican primary help?… YES, USUALLY
• Will Trump’s actions and policies influence future Republican issue positions after he is no longer President?… YES
• Will Trump’s personal style be adopted by future Republican candidates?… NO, HE IS UNIQUE
• Will Trump be responsible for fundamental changes to both Republican and Democratic parties?… MOSTLY NO

Most “Never-Trump” Republicans fear he will forever change the party. Trump’s supporters hope he does. The answer to which side is more likely to be correct involves important PRE-TRUMP political history.

Let’s walk through that political history…

• From the time of the New Deal in the 1930s, the Democratic Party was the political home of the poor, most ethnic minorities, the blue-collar labor vote, and liberals. The Republican Party was the upscale party—the home of most of the white middle and upper-middle classes and of conservatives.
• In the early 2000s, Democratic strategists like John Judis and Ruy Teixeira concluded that the number of voters in minority groups such as Hispanics, Asians, and others was growing so fast that the Democrats could win virtually permanent majorities without the traditional core of the party, namely, the white labor union and working-class voters. That voter bloc was causing Party elites increasing discomfort because of their patriotism [flags], social issues [abortion and gay rights], and the 2^nd amendment [gun rights]. In 2008, this contempt was voiced by candidate Barack Obama when he said…” And, it’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion and antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment to explain their frustrations.” In 2016, candidate Clinton suggested that half of Trump’s supporters belonged in a “basket of deplorables,” which she described as being “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic-you name it.” She also labeled them “irredeemable.”
• As the Democratic Party purposefully moved away from white working-class voters, those folks were effectively set politically adrift. They gradually abandoned the Democrats, but not, Bush, McCain, nor Romney effectively made them a target, as had Reagan in the 1980s. Still, they increasingly became Republican voters, especially those who described themselves as evangelical Christians. By 2012, white evangelical Christians voted 78% for Romney, and 21% for Obama. They are a large voter bloc—over 25% of all voters.
• Moving in the opposite direction from the men and women of the white working class were upscale white women. They were moving into the D column, mostly over social issues like abortion, gay rights, and gun control. Both groups contain millions of voters, but the white working-class that was moving toward the Rs was about three times the size of the up-scale white female bloc moving toward the Ds. During the same period the Hispanic and Asian vote—both about 2 to 1 Democratic—expanded rapidly, as the Democratic strategists expected. The net result was essentially a tie in the 2016 election with Clinton winning the popular vote by 2% and Trump easily winning the electoral vote because of the move of the white working-class to the Republicans. Also critical was that Trump, relying on the large number of white working-class voters, swung key Great Lake’s states into his column. As reference points, recall that both the 2000 and 2016 elections were virtual ties. A tremendous amount of change occurred in the party coalitions during that period. The changes cancelled each other out nationally. But white working-class votes allowed Trump to squeeze out victories in PA, MI, and WI. Those wins provided his margin in the Electoral College.
• A key point here is that Donald Trump did NOT cause this 15-year shift in the party coalitions. Almost all of it occurred BEFORE he announced in June 2015. Trump was the beneficiary of the shift rather than the cause. It was the white working-class that, surprisingly, fooled the pundits [including me] and won him the nomination. Those voters also put him over-the-top in the key midwestern states, giving him a win in the general election.

In closing Part One of this analysis please remember two things: The first is that almost all the changes to the party coalitions occurred PRE-TRUMP.

The second is that the wants and the policy preferences of the white working-class which moved to the Rs, are substantially different than those of upscale white women who moved to the Ds in large numbers. Over time, policy preferences have a strong influence on the partisanship of many people.

Understanding those two facts provides a framework and basis for explaining the Trump era and the post-Trump era, regardless of whether that begins in 2021 or 2025.

SEE PART TWO ON JULY 2.

Elections

Supreme court Gerrymandering decision…punt or no punt?

Most media reported that the Supreme Court “punted” in the Wisconsin Gill v. Whitford gerrymandering case. In this context, “punting” means the lack of a definitive decision. That characterization understates the importance of what the Supreme Court did.

The plaintiffs’ core argument and remedy were to require that legislative seat allocations through elections in Wisconsin reflect the proportion of the statewide vote won by the parties. This is effectively a requirement of proportional representation which US law and tradition do NOT embrace. In almost all US elections, the top vote getter, or majority vote-getter, wins. Proportional representation is very rare in US elections.

Republicans win more legislative seats in the states and the US House than their proportion of the vote would support if proportional representation were the metric. There are two major gerrymandering causes of this, as you have seen me describe in previous blogs. The less important of the two is partisan gerrymandering where the legislative lines are drawn to favor the party that draws the lines. BOTH parties do that when they have the power to do so.

The other is what I call “moving truck gerrymandering.” That is driven by the free choice of where Americans decide to live. Democrats tend to “pack” themselves in urban districts near the cores of metropolitan areas. Republicans tend to spread themselves out more into outer suburbs, exurbs, small towns, and rural areas.

This leads to many Democratic victories by 70-30 or 80-20 margins and Republican victories by 60-40 or 55-45 margins. That makes the R votes more “efficient.” Because of that, they get a disproportionate number of legislative seats.

The way the Supreme Court “punted” in this case makes it very difficult for plaintiffs to win a case by showing non-proportional representation. Individual plaintiffs in the “gerrymandered” districts must prove their constitutional rights have been violated. That is not easy because the court ruled that just finding that one party or the other is over-represented in a legislature is not adequate proof of a constitutional violation.

This was not really a “punt,” but a ruling that makes future gerrymandering cases based on percentages of votes hard to win. In effect, the court greatly increased the burden of proof on either Republicans or Democrats seeking to prove gerrymandering in their state rises to the level that the courts should enjoin the legislative actions against which the plaintiffs are complaining.

Dueling Gallup Polls

The IBD newspaper, as well as several other conservative media outlets, made a faulty analysis of one recent Gallup Poll report. Their error resulted from Gallup’s report that President Trump’s approval rating of 45% approval was equal to that of President Obama’s at the same point in his Presidency. The mistake was to conclude, with no further investigation, that the Republicans were in good shape politically.

What the conservative analysts failed to note was that Obama’s approval was still at approximately the same level just five months later in November when his Democratic Party lost 63 US House seats in the 2010 elections. Obama was personally popular, but that November the economic recovery was quite weak, there were smoldering wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and just 20% of Americans told the pollsters that they were satisfied with how things were going in the US.

But, 2018 is quite different than 2010 as Gallup also noted implicitly last week.

The first such report showed that 38% of Americans are satisfied with how things are going now. That is the highest reading in 12 years. We Americans are a bit hard to please and the 38% is at the average reading for this measure, which Gallup began in 1979. Readings above 30% usually bode well for the party in-power.

Also last week, Gallup released a report showing that a relatively low 56% of American’s say they are “absolutely certain” they will vote in the November elections for Congress. This measure may go up or down between now and November, but the Gallup analysts state that it does not usually vary much over the months before an election.

But what about the wild anger at Trump, you ask. Many analysts say such outrage is going to drive Democratic turn-out through the roof in November. The Gallup study also shoots several holes in that assertion. Equal percentages of Republicans and Democrats, 64% and 65% respectively, say they are certain to vote, while independents lag well behind at 45%. No Democratic or Republican advantage there.

Gallup also asked whether the voters specifically intended to send a message opposing or supporting the President with their vote. The results were a real surprise, including to me.

Just 23% say they will vote to send an opposition message to Trump, while a statistically equal 20% say they will be voting to send a message of support for Trump. 53% said their vote will not be sending a message to or about Trump.

Republicans have feared, and Democrats and the pundits have predicted a 2018 Congressional election that is a referendum on Trump. All of us, including me, now need to see if that will indeed be the case. If it is not, relatively few US House seats may change hands.

Also, if turn-out is below average, it is a good sign for the Republicans, as their voters tend to be more certain to turn out and vote even when many others, especially minority voters, do not.

Tuesday June 26 Primaries and Run-Offs

Five states — CO, MD, MS, SC, and UT—have primaries or run-offs tomorrow. We’ll see if any new trends emerge, but I don’t expect any.

There is almost no primary activity in July, but things pick up dramatically as we get into August.

Polls and Media

A Thank You to Charles Krauthammer

The eminent psychiatrist, journalist, and writer, Charles Krauthammer, died last week. He was a legend in his lifetime with his columns in the Washington Post and regular appearances on Fox News.

When Charles wrote on a topic, it was worth reading. He was usually proven correct.

What you could count on was that his facts would be accurate, his logic clear, his arguments sensible, and that you would learn from his work.

He will be missed, especially in this era of fake news, bias, and entertainers, celebrities, and advocates pretending to be journalists.

Gallup: Americans Say Much Misinformation, Bias, Inaccuracy in News

Gallup Poll reports galore last week…

Another report from the Gallup organization and Knight Foundation showed that 62% of Americans think news in newspapers, on TV, and on radio is biased. Eighty percent think social media-based news is biased.

Fully 44% of Americans describe the news as inaccurate when it comes from newspapers, TV, or radio. Almost two-thirds [64%] say social media news is inaccurate.

We Americans have a real dilemma… WHERE DO WE GO FOR THE FACTS AND HONEST, ACCURATE ANALYSIS?

Media and Political Hysteria about Separating Children from Relatives

The Democrats and Republicans, liberal and conservative media, and the intelligentsia went hysterical this week on the separation of illegal immigrant children from their relatives.

My analysis will rely on the reactions of the American people rather than those who think they are “smarter than the people.”

A Rasmussen poll last week in the middle of the hysteria showed that 54% of likely voters think the parents of the kids are more to blame than the US government. Only 35% blame the government.

Please recall the story immediately above this one that shows Americans believe the news is horribly biased and inaccurate.

Hysteria and political panic does not lead to good policy or accurate analysis.

The media reported that the family separation issue would surely lead to Trump’s political demise.

THE FACTS–Trump’s approval rating dropped one-point last week and the two other political metrics moved positively in the Republican direction. [See political metrics reporting below.]

I’ll monitor the consequences of this issue this week but suggest the 30-Day Test probably applies to it.

Don’t forget the Tuchfarber 30 Day test — when you get upset about something in the news, ask if it is likely to be IMPORTANT in 30 days or so. Only seldom will it be relevant then. So, ignore it and lower your blood pressure.

China Watch

The Financial-Economic Dilemma that is China’s

China faces a series of important issues and dilemmas as it creates its economic policies on the fly in the face of rapidly changing facts.

It knows it must slow its rapid accumulation of total debt—household, corporate, and government. China’s huge debt load is unsustainable.

It knows its shadow banking industry and that sector’s wealth management products are out-of-control. They add debt in the trillions, but that debt is mostly “off-the-books” of the banks and financial institutions because it is treated as an investment, not a loan.

China’s stock markets are nearing bear market territory—almost a 20% decline since January—even as the government orders major holders of stock positions not to sell.

It is in a trade war with Donald Trump with unknown and un-knowable consequences.

Its recent economic reports were quite weak.

All those things and others create real financial-economic dilemmas for China, for which there is no positive solution…just second-best Band-Aids with longer terms negatives.

MUCH MORE ON THIS IN SUBSEQUENT ISSUES.

Predictive Political & Economic Measures

2018 Election Prediction Summary

Below are several election and policy predictions that I present each week and change if my indicators change. Speaking only to the 2018 election predictions, my current evaluation is:

1. The Republicans will lose 5 to 15 net US House seats but maintain a small majority.
2. The Democrats will lose 4 to 7 US Senate seats with the Republicans adding to their current razor-thin 51-49 majority.

POLITICAL MEASURES

1. Right Direction-Wrong Track— “Wrong Track” is now at 51%, down 1% from last week. It has proven to be a good indicator if the party “in-power” was going to do well or badly. [If the “wrong-track” reading is 62% or higher, it bodes ill for them. If 58% or lower, they do well.]
2. Generic Congressional Ballot— The polls I’m averaging are at 46% D and 40% R, the D lead down 1% from last week. [Because D voters are so concentrated in urban cores, Democrats need to be ahead 4 to 6% on this measure to tie the Rs for the 435 US House seats spread across urban, suburban, small town, and rural districts.] Like other polling results, the generic ballot polling now is based on twice the turn out that will actually occur. Only right before the election will public pollsters really tighten their screens to try to get to the smaller subset of people who will actually vote. Until then, this measure is useful, but flawed.
3. Presidential Approval—Trump’s approval rating is 44%, down 1% over the week. NOTE THAT THE MEDIA COVERAGE OF THE FAMILY SEPARATION ISSUE HAD LITTLE IMPACT ON TRUMP’S APPROVAL RATING OR THE OTHER POLITICAL METRICS.

ECONOMIC MEASURES

4. U-3 official unemployment rate—The current level is 3.8%, an 18-year low. Low or falling levels of this measure are a positive for the “in” party. It is low and falling now, down from 4.1% a year ago.
5. U-6 unemployment rate [broadest measure, including under-employment]—The current level is 7.6%. This is a historically low level and down from 8.1% a year ago.
6. GDP GROWTH—Growth last quarter was 2.2% which is significantly higher than the average growth over the last eight years. Forecasts for the current quarter suggest growth over 3%, perhaps over 4%.

WAR

7. The jobs and war issues are the 500-pound gorillas of American public opinion. If the economy is bad or there is a major unpopular war, the party in power is in trouble. Neither is the case now.

Predictions

Election Predictions

• 80-90%: the probability the Rs will lose seats in the 2018 House elections
• 10-20%: the probability that the Rs will lose control of the House in 2018
• 90-95%: the probability that the Rs will still control the Senate in 2019
• 90-95%: the chance that the Ds will lose seats in the 2018 Senate elections
• 50%: the chance the Republicans will gain five or more Senate seats in the 2018 elections
• 80-85%: the chance that Trump will be re-elected in 2020

Policy & Legislative Predictions

• There is more than a 70% chance that pressure on the DACA – “Dreamer” – issue will force the Democrats to negotiate a deal with President Trump on the border wall and other immigration issues this year. This issue is likely to come to a vote in the House this week.
• The chance that Donald Trump will be impeached and removed from office by the Congress in the next three years is less than 1%. *

 

*NOTE: Remember that after being impeached by a Republican controlled House in 1998, not one Democratic Senator voted to remove Bill Clinton from office. It takes 67 votes and is more of a political process than a legal one. NO President has ever been impeached and removed. Richard Nixon resigned before the House and Senate could impeach and remove him from office.

Musings, Insights, and Perspectives

In this section I loosen some of my requirements for factual proof and muse a bit.

Do the Democrats want the Mueller Investigation to Continue?

Recently, I reported that Democratic leaders are now asking their followers to play down the talk about impeaching President Trump should the Democrats take the House in November. The reason is simple. Such talk energizes the Republican base and makes it more likely they will vote in November. [See the related story in the Elections Section above.]

I’ll now predict that at least some Democratic leaders and savvy members of the press will soon begin calling for an end to the Mueller Special Counsel investigation. The investigation has found little or no collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians. The other important thread being investigated was the potential for an obstruction of justice case against Trump for firing James Comey. The recent DOJ Inspector General’s report vitiated that case by showing the rule-breaking, insubordination, and arrogance of Comey.

Little is left of a potential case against Trump.

Right now, the public is split on whether the investigation should continue, but there is a strong trend toward less support for the continuation of the probe.

Using the same logic that applied to the impeachment message, Democrats will soon realize the Mueller investigation isn’t helping motivate their voters anymore. However, it angers the Republican base and makes them more likely to vote in November, especially if Mueller is still spending millions in taxpayer money at the time of the elections.

Just a thought…

Until next week…
Al Tuchfarber
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati

Al.Tuchfarber@gmail.com
Tuchfarber Political-Economics LLC, Inc.

Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the nation’s most accurate, while directing the social science Institute for Policy Research from 1975 to 2004. He also founded and directed the Institute for Health Policy from 1996 to 2004. He is an engaging and dynamic speaker and has published over 100 articles and papers about politics, society, and research methods.

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