In-Brief
- The Russians tampered with our election, but changed no votes or results, and did not collude with Trump.
- The Florida school shootings are a tragedy with no solutions short of massive societal change, not just gun laws or mental health procedures.
- A choice for Democrats—take green cards and eventual citizenship for the DACA “kids” now, or use them as a campaign tool this fall.
- The US achieves the “impossible dream”—ENERGY INDEPENDENCE.
In-Depth
What’s Important
Russian Election Tampering – No Trump Collusion
Let’s step away from the partisanship, spin and hype and look at just the facts in the Mueller Special Counsel indictments announced Friday.
The key findings are:
- Three Russian firms and 13 individuals were indicted for illegal interference in our 2016 election process– before, during and after.
- Neither Trump nor campaign officials were indicted but several low-level officials do appear to have been duped by Russian operatives into cooperating with some they thought were Americans. The specific use of the word “unwitting” in reference to these interactions suggests no higher-level cooperation was underway in the campaign.
- The overall goal of the Russians appears to have been to sow discontent throughout American society and exacerbate societal fault-lines before and after the election.
- Because they provided useful fulcrums to sow dissatisfaction, Democratic populist Bernie Sanders and Republican populist Donald Trump were encouraged in the primaries and Trump in the general election against mainstreamer Clinton.
- Clinton was especially targeted because of strong Russian antipathy towards her.
- After being elected, Trump was targeted for Russian action stirring up resistance to him. This is consistent with an overall Russian goal to dis-credit American democracy and stir up societal unrest.
- There is no evidence Russian efforts changed any actual paper ballots or electronic votes.
- There is no evidence or likelihood that during the information overload of an American election campaign, a few million dollars spent by the Russians changed the election results. The few millions spent was a miniscule fraction of total spending and was massively overwhelmed by billions in free-media.
- Nevertheless, any such illegal interference is unacceptable and needs to be officially addressed.
- There is no clear indication if this brings the Mueller investigation close to an end.
Media
Don’t forget the Tuchfarber 30 Day test — when you get upset about something in the news, ask if it is likely to be IMPORTANT in 30 days or so. Only seldom will it be so and you can usually ignore it.
Republicans on Republicans
It must be time for circular firing squads. Ds questioning Ds and Rs questioning Rs.
Reince Priebus, former White House strategist, dumping on the White House.
R lawmakers dumping on Trump over domestic violence.
The Freedom Caucus threatening Speaker Ryan on immigration.
A bunch of tempests in a teapot…
Global Economics
Energy Independence for the US
The US Energy Information Agency [EIA] recently reported spectacular economic news for the US which got totally inadequate attention.
AS SOON AS 2019 THE US WILL BE ENERGY INDEPENDENT!
Say what! Yes…within a couple years the US will export more energy than it imports.
This does NOT mean we won’t import energy but, rather, that we will be importing less energy than we export. More important for economic reasons, our net exports are projected to increase substantially for decades.
A decade or so ago, we were importing a net of 30 quadrillion BTUs of energy. Projections are that will shortly go to a net of zero and for decades in the future the US will be a net exporter of quadrillions in net BTUs.
These changes are driven by two major changes. The first is that we Americans are consuming less energy per person. The second is that that we are producing more and more oil and natural gas because of fracking, a technology American innovators developed.
Until very recently we sent 100s of billions of dollars to other countries to pay for huge imports of oil and natural gas. The net money flow is now reversing and will become positive in our favor. Many of us have been troubled by our large trade deficit, but net energy exports will soon help reduce that deficit.
There is a great deal of good news out there. Human and American progress is abundant.
Even Trump hating liberal Steven Pinker of Harvard is just out with a major book describing how almost all aspects of human life around the globe have improved and are improving rapidly. One example out of hundreds… between 1960 and today, the percentage of the world’s population living in extreme poverty has gone from about two-thirds of all humans to less than 10%. And, the ten percent is being reduced by137,000 people every day. [Pinker, p. 88-9]
Critical Political & Economic Measures
This is a new section that will appear weekly. The measures are important in their own right, but also influence electoral politics.
Political Measures
- Right Direction-Wrong Track— This measure is widely used by pollsters, asking in effect if things are going well or badly in the US. Since 2006, it has proven to be a good indicator before elections if the party “in-power” [controlling the White House] was going to do well or badly. If the “wrong -track” reading is 62% or higher it bodes ill for them. If 58% or lower, they break even or gain. THIS IS MY MOST-PREFERED ELECTION PREDICTION MEASURE. I use dozens, but this one seems to strip out a lot of noise. Using my adjustments to this measure as described in a note below, “Wrong-Track” is now at 54%, unchanged from last week. Gallup was out last week with a similar question measuring the same thing, but differently worded, showing a positive trend for the White House party.
- Generic Congressional Ballot—Also used by many pollsters, this indicator measures the current preferences of voters for which party they prefer in US House races. My adjusted measures [see NOTE] are now 46% D and 38% R, a slight widening of the margin for the Ds. Historically, Ds need a solid lead on this measure to win a House majority. They win huge majorities in some states and urban areas while Republican votes produce more wins with smaller majorities—i.e., the R votes are more efficient. This phenomenon is due to both Ds packing themselves into some states and into urban cores as well as political gerrymandering by both parties. As reported in Politico and McClatchy, other public polls, and private Democratic polls are showing a decrease in the Democrats lead.
- Presidential Approval—Trump’s approval, using my adjusted measure [see NOTE] is now 44%, up 1%. It is at a below average level for recent Presidents. But, because of his unique and often disruptive style, the Gallup organization and others, including myself, believe this measure underestimates his real approval ratings by 5% or more. Many political science models make heavy use of this measure in their predictions. I will report it, but will use it for trend analysis, not election predictions.
# NOTE: For the survey measures reported here, I will start with the RealClearPolitics.com data reported daily. For greater accuracy and timeliness, I will make the following adjustments:
- Use only polls conducted by non-partisan pollsters.
- Use only polls conducted in the last 14 days or so.
- Use only polls reporting results for registered or likely voters, not polls of all US adults. This is preferable for election prediction as compared to measuring overall public opinion.
Economic Measures
- Unemployment Rate [official: U-3]—The current level is 4.1%, a 17-year low. Low or falling levels of this measure are a positive for the “in” party. It is low and falling now, down from 4.8% a year ago.
- Unemployment Rate [broadest measure including under-employment: U-6]—The current level is at 8.2%. This is a very low level and has fallen from 9.4% a year ago.
- GDP GROWTH—Growth last quarter was 2.6% which is significantly higher than the average growth over the last eight years.
War
- The jobs issue and war issue are the 500-pound gorillas of American public opinion. If the economy is bad or there is a major unpopular war, the party in power is in trouble. Unpopular wars, like Vietnam and Iraq, shatter the support of the party in power. Small wars like Afghanistan and Syria are nearly always underway and usually do not have major effects unless they grow substantially in the cost in US lives.
Analysis
Among the Political Punditry, the conventional wisdom for months has been that a Democratic Wave was building that would gain them the House majority and minimize their losses in the Senate where they have many vulnerable seats.
I have disagreed and the predictions in the next section quantify that. I’ve disagreed because my preferred metric [right direction – wrong track] is in territory that predicts success for the Rs, the economic situation is excellent, and there is no major war.
Those measures could change, but as long as they stay where they are, the Democrats will make only modest gains in November. If the indicators change, so too will my predictions.
No major changes occurred over the last week, but we may get more action this week.
Predictions
Changes this week
Election Predictions
- CHANGE–70-80%: the probability the Rs will lose seats in the 2018 House elections [CHANGE: 80-90% down to 70-80% based on many factors.]
- 10-20%: the probability that the Rs will lose control of the House in 2018
- 90-95%: the probability that the Rs will still control the Senate in 2019
- 90-95%: the chance that the Ds will lose seats in the 2018 Senate elections
- 50%: the chance the Democrats will lose four or more Senate seats in the 2018 elections
- 90-95%: the chance that Donald Trump will be the 2020 Republican nominee, unless he decides not to run
- 80-85%: the chance that Trump will be re-elected in 2020
Policy & Legislative Predictions
- CHANGE–There is more than a 60% chance pressure on the DACA– “Dreamer” issue will force the Democrats to negotiate a deal with President Trump on the border wall and other immigration issues by this spring. [CHANGE: up from 50% because Senate debate increased pressure for a solution.]
- The chance that Donald Trump will be impeached and removed from office by the Congress in the next three years is less than 1%. *
- The chance that Trump will be removed from office in the next seven years is less than 5%.
*NOTE: Remember that after being impeached by a Republican controlled House in 1998, not one Democratic Senator voted to remove Bill Clinton from office. It takes 67 votes and is more of a political process than a legal one. NO President has ever been impeached and removed. Richard Nixon resigned before the House and Senate could impeach and remove him from office.
Musings
DACA Theater
Anyone who thought the Senate would pass a DACA bill last week that would lead directly to the settlement of this issue wasn’t thinking straight. Both parties want a resolution of the issue on their own terms. Senator McConnell allowed a four-day debate because he promised the Democrats he would. He’s now off that hook and the Ds got nothing of lasting political value. In fact, they lost because now all the DACA “kids” and their supporters know they could have gotten green cards and a path to citizenship, but that the Ds wouldn’t meet the Republican and Trump “fee”.
As Democratic pollster Doug Schoen put it in the title of an article he wrote for The Hill… “Democrats will lose this fall by fighting over immigration now.” Many in the Democratic Party want DACA as an issue this fall, rather than to solve it now. The problem is that as an issue it drags in with it the whole immigration and border debate that was a loser for the Democrats in 2016 and not likely to be a winner in November 2018.
The American people want a resolution in the form I outlined last week—see Feb. 12 issue.
This issue is likely to be resolved permanently or temporarily in the next few months. A temporary fix will delay definitive resolution and citizenship for those involved. Both parties are holding the “kids” hostage. How will that play out politically? We’ll find out…
White House Rob Porter Scandal
Don’t expect any major political damages to Trump from the numerous faulty ways the Rob Porter scandal was handled. Heads have flown, and others will. Procedures will be tightened… a good thing… but few will be talking about it in 30 days.
The Florida School Shooting
Similarly, despite all the angst over the latest school shooting by a mentally ill teenager, don’t expect major changes to be made by Congress, the administration, or the State of Florida. The shootings were an absolute tragedy and cry for redress, but there are no easy answers to preventing more than a few such shootings.
Think about it this way…
This kid got the weapon, probably legally. He lost his mom recently. He “cracked” because of that loss. But, he got the gun when he was not an official “mental case”.
Huge mistakes were made by the adults in the home where he moved, by the local authorities, and by the FBI.
Ask yourself these questions…
Putting aside this particular case… what should parents and the authorities do whenever any teenager threatens violence [acts out]? How many do you want in jail or mental institutions? How do you choose which ones to institutionalize or incarcerate? How would you want your child or grandchild or yourself treated in such a situation?
Any acceptable answers?
And banning AR-15s and military type weapons is no answer. Cruz, the assailant, could have killed many with a simple hunting rifle or conventional handgun.
Neither the left nor the right is willing to step back and have an open debate about how we need to “fix” our culture, mores, laws, mental health systems, and legal procedures to avoid most such incidents.
Think about it…
Trump Budget DOA
The Trump budget submitted last week is DOA in the Congress for two reasons. All Presidential budgets are wish-lists that Congress mostly ignores. The budgets lay out priorities, but Congress has the authority under the Constitution to set spending and revenue generation.
In addition, the recent budget deal between the Democrats and Republicans in Congress as well as the President supersede the President’s budget.
So, don’t get too hyper if your favorite program is on the chopping block. It’s up to Congress, not the President.
Opinion and Commentary
Romney Runs for Senate
Last week Mitt Romney announced he would run for the Senate seat of retiring Utah Senator Orrin Hatch. There is little doubt that he will be elected.
Inasmuch as Romney is a vocal critic of Donald Trump and a prominent Never Trump leader the media is always quick to report shots he takes at Trump. The media’s behavior will not change.
But, two presumptions about Romney’s re-emergence in an elective office deserve discussion.
The first is that Romney will replace the ill and dying John McCain in the Senate as a grandstander for favored causes and anti-Trump tirades. Don’t count on it. Romney didn’t make himself a business success by grandstanding. He is enormously talented and a strong leader, not a grandstander. He will be effective in the Senate and may well become a leader there in the future, but you don’t get into leadership of a legislative body by grandstanding. A prediction… after winning the Senate seat in Utah, Romney and Trump will forge a détente.
The second is that Romney, the Bush family, Senator Graham, and many others will contest Trump for control of the policy and messaging of the Republican party and pull it back to the characteristics it had when George W was elected in the early 2000s. As a friend puts it… “I want my old Republican Party back.”
For reasons I have written about and will write far more about in future blogs, THAT Republican Party and the political coalition of demographic groups that comprised it is gone for good. The short version of how that change occurred is that because of the Tea Party movement’s impact on the party and because of the white working class abandoning the Democratic Party for the Republicans over the last decade and one-half, the Republican party is now the party of the middle-class.
It is no longer the upper-middle and upper-class party. The Democrats now hold that title in a curious coalition that includes the upper-class, upper-middle-class women, the poor, and minorities. The Republicans hold the middle. That is why Trump was elected in 2016, why the Rs hold the House and Senate, most governorships, and most state legislatures.
Trump was the beneficiary of these changes, not their creator, although he has solidified the changes.
President Trump will pass from the political scene in three or seven years, but the Republican Party is very unlikely to revert to the party it was a decade or two ago.
Until next week…
Al Tuchfarber
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati
Al.Tuchfarber@gmail.com
Tuchfarber Political-Economics LLC, Inc.
Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the nation’s most accurate, while directing the social science Institute for Policy Research from 1975 to 2004. He also founded and directed the Institute for Health Policy from 1996 to 2004. He is an engaging and dynamic speaker and has published over 100 articles and papers about politics, society, and research methods.