In Brief
- Tax reform is very likely yet this year or early next. The House bill passed 227-205 with no Democratic votes. The Senate bill will change multiple times before it is voted on. If both houses of Congress pass bills, a Conference Committee will make substantial further changes. So, stay tuned…
- The partisan coalitions of groups that make up our two parties have changed markedly with the Republicans becoming the white working-class and middle-class party and the Democrats—a bi-modal party of both the rich and of minorities and the poor. These changes have caused a dramatic shift in which states are safe Republican states and which are safe Democratic states. This week’s issue starts a 4-PART series about our changing political geography.
- The wages of the sins of sex abuse and sexual harassment are coming home to roost in Hollywood, DC and throughout the land. The genie is out of the bottle and will not go quietly back inside. Expect many of the guilty and their enablers to be in the spotlight for months or years to come and for our politics and society to suffer shock after shock.
In-Depth
What’s Important
Sex and Politics
New political and social convulsions around sex and politics are just beginning.
So far all we have seen is the tip of the iceberg…Harvey Weinstein…Bill Clinton…Al Franken… admitted guilt and apologizing in some cases.
Roy Moore and many others are accused…guilty or not…we do not know yet…various “juries” will speak.
Criminal courts…civil courts…kangaroo courts… and the court of public opinion are all going to come into play.
Tens of thousands of girls, boys and women who were sexually abused or harassed are consulting with friends, relatives and lawyers. Many of the guilty will be flushed out, but so too will be some who are innocent. WE MUST BE CAREFUL AND FAIR TO BOTH VICTIMS AND THE ACCUSED.
It is already ugly and likely to get much worse.
This crisis is not going away anytime soon and will have widespread political, social and legal consequences.
On Dec. 12, in an early test, the voters of Alabama will have to sort things out enough to choose a US Senator. Who will the voters believe? Roy Moore or his accusers? Who should they believe? Evidence supporting both sides exists.
Stay tuned…
Elections
Our Shifting Democratic and Republican States
Part I of IV: Introduction
Recent demographic and geographic shifts in the composition of the Republican and Democratic coalitions have gotten far too little attention from political analysts and political scientists. If you look back to 1996, just 20 years ago when Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole, and compare it to 2016 voting you find enormous changes in the demographic coalitions that make up the two parties. Change has also been dramatic in how winning geographic coalitions of 270 or more electoral votes are collected.
Last week I focused on the demographic coalitions that now make up the two parties. Those demographics go a long way toward explaining which states are majority Democrat and which states majority Republican.
Remember the three most important demographic changes:
- The huge increase from 1996 to 2016, of minorities, increasing from just 17% of the voters to 30%…with especially huge increases in Hispanic and Asian voters.
- The shift of the white working-class from being the core of the Democratic Party vote to becoming now a crucial part of the Republican base.
- The move of upscale white women [not upscale men] away from the Republicans into the Democratic base.
During that same 20-year period 15 states flipped parties—either D to R [2 states], or R to D [13 states]. All 15 of those reversals were caused, in large part, by either large increases in Hispanic and Asian votes pushing states to the Ds, or the white working-class shift pushing the state to the Rs.
We’ll review those changes in a 4-PART SERIES starting with a quick look at the 15 states that flipped.
States Changing From R to D: 1996 to 2016 [Percent change]
| State | 1996 R Victory | 2016 D Victory | Net Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| CO [9 EV] | +2R | +5D | +7D |
| VA [13 EV] | +2R | +5D | +7D |
States changing from D to R: 1996 to 2016 [percent Change]
| State | 1996 D Victory | 2016 R Victory | Net Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ [11 EV] | +3D | +4R | +7R |
| AR [6 EV] | +17D | +27R | +44R |
| FL [29 EV] | +6D | +1R | +7R |
| IA [6 EV] | +10D | +9R | +19R |
| KY [8 EV] | +1D | +20R | +31R |
| LA [8 EV] | +12D | +20R | +32R |
| MI [16 EV] | +14D | +1R | +15R |
| MO [10 EV] | +7D | +19R | +26R |
| OH [18 EV] | +6D | +8R | +14R |
| PA [20 EV] | +9D | +1R | +10R |
| TN [11 EV] | +2D | +26R | +28R |
| WV [5 EV] | +14D | +43R | +57R |
| WI [10 EV] | +11D | +1R | +12R |
PART I, of this series, today’s, will introduces it and study the two states that went R to D.
PART II will look at the South Central and Border states that went D to R.
PART III will focus on the Great Lakes area states going D to R.
PART IV will look at how two factors are hurting Democrats in an increasing number of elections—“wasted votes” and “ moving-truck gerrymandering”.
In 1996 Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole 49% to 41%, with Ross Perot gaining 8%. In 2016 Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump in the popular vote, 48% to 46% but lost the electoral vote 306 to 232. She won the popular vote with huge margins in CA, NY and IL while Trump piled up a huge numerical win only in TX. Trump won key battleground/swing states like PA, MI, WI and FL in very close races.
15 states changed their partisan direction over the 20 years from R to D or D to R. Two, CO and VA, went R to D.
This week we’ll focus on those two states and why they have become convincingly Democratic. As so often in American history the answer has to do with race and ethnicity… with the American melting pot.
Colorado, in 1990, was 81% Anglo [non-Hispanic white]. Anglos voted by modest majorities for Republicans on average while Hispanics were a strong Democratic voting group. Now Anglos are just 69% of the population and falling by about 2% every 4 years—by 2020 Colorado is likely to be just 67% Anglo.
The trend is clear. Colorado has become a Democratic state. This is not to say a Republican cannot win there but it is getting tougher and tougher.
A similar but more complicated pattern holds in Virginia. It had been a solidly Republican state for decades until Obama won in 2008 and ’12. In 1990, VA was 76% non-Hispanic white with most of the rest African-American. The white population has now fallen to 62% with the black percentage little changed, but with very substantial increases in the numbers of both Hispanics and Asians.
The Northern Virginia counties around Washington DC have seen explosive growth as business, industry and government employment have all exploded around the Capital. Many of the new workers are Asian or Hispanic and many others are government union members, all strongly Democratic voting groups.
These changes have shifted VA from a safe R state to an increasingly safe D state. Like CO, Republicans can still win there with the right candidate and the right timing, but it is increasing difficult.
Expect Donald Trump, or whomever is the R candidate in 2020, to go into the election as an underdog in both CO and VA.
By contrast the other 13 states that flipped D to R between 1996 and 2016 will be heavily leaning R or will be rated toss-ups. We’ll examine those states over the next few weeks.
Major Legislation and Policies
Tax Reform
I’m not going to try to compare the differences between the House Republican plan for tax reform and that of the Senate Republicans. Both bills reflect how you cobble together majority votes among only Republicans in those two houses of Congress. The political dynamics are different in the two bodies. And, the processes are ugly to say the least.
It is certain that few Democratic votes are there in either house to pass tax reform. There were none when the House passed their bill 227-205, with 13 R “no’s” as well as 192 D “no’s”. Any analyst or politician telling you otherwise is either lying to you or is living in a dream world. [The Republicans did the same thing when Obamacare was passed.] There may be a few D votes at the very end, but almost surely none designed to actually help get a final bill passed. The polarization and partisanship is extreme in BOTH PARTIES.
I won’t get into specifics because the specifics are almost certain to change several times before any final bill even has a chance of being signed by the President.
If both houses do pass different bills…highly likely…there will then be a Conference Committee to work out the differences. Don’t assume, in this step, that the modus operandi will just be to just split the differences that exist. Some will just be split, but other compromises will go off in unexpected directions.
Also, in this step, before final votes on identical bills in both houses, new features not in either house’s version can be introduced.
An example is the insertion in the Senate bill, this week, of a provision to eliminate the Obamacare mandate that all purchase or have health insurance. That frees up over $300 billion more for tax cuts or paying for specific further tax breaks previously not in either bill because they were unaffordable given Senate rules on budgeting. That provision may or may not stay in the Senate or final bill. It all depends on getting majority passage in both houses with only Republican votes.
There are many…many…moving parts. Taking ANY single change in isolation is unwise when you think about your own tax bill.
Passage of tax reform is highly likely this year or early next.
Stay tuned but don’t hold your breath as changes will come for at least another 3 or 4 weeks.
Deregulation and Court Appointments
Virtually every day we hear that the Trump administration and the Republican Congress have done nothing this year. Surprisingly, much of that nonsense comes from Republicans, including Trump supporters, who think the Republicans in Congress are do-nothings.
It is absolutely true that the Rs could not push through Obamacare repeal, and that issue will linger into 2018. But, the first major tax reform in over 30 years is on the cusp and may even include the repeal of the hated Obamacare insurance mandate.
More importantly, there are two other critical things the White House and Republicans in Congress have achieved in 2017.
If you go back to the 2016 campaign the top issues for most conservative voters were repealing Obamacare, appointing conservative Supreme Court judges, massive de-regulation of business, and large tax cuts. [I’ll review all 17 of Trump’s major campaign promises in a future blog.]
Because of the efforts of the Congress and the White House, massive de-regulation is underway and speeding up. That process takes time and its real impact takes even longer to show up in the economy. [See the November 17, 2017 WSJ Op-ed by Christopher Demuth…” Trump vs. the Deep Regulatory State”.]
Majority Leader McConnell is getting Trump’s federal court appointments through with alacrity nobody predicted, and they are exemplary conservative jurists.
Massive tax reform has a high probability of passage within weeks or months.
And, it is possible the Obamacare insurance mandate will disappear with tax reform’s passage.
Democrats and the left-leaning media loudly bemoan these achievements, but, curiously, many conservatives respond…”is this all there is?’.
To achieve all this in 10 months is actually quite exceptional for any administration. It will be even more so if major tax reform passes soon.
Forecasts
THERE ARE NO changes this week
Political Forecasts – Elections
- The chance the Rs will lose at least a few seats in the 2018 House elections is 80 to 90 percent.
- The chance the Rs will lose their 241-194 House majority in 2018 is 10 to 20 percent.
- The chance the Republicans will still control the Senate after next year’s elections is 90 to 95%.
- The chance the Ds lose three or more of their 48 Senate seats in ’18 is 85 to 90 percent.
- The chance that Donald Trump will be the 202o R nominee is 90 to 95 percent.
- The chance that Trump will win a 2nd term is 80 to 85 percent.
Policy and Legislative Forecasts
- There is an 80-90% probability the Congress will pass and Trump sign major tax reform and tax cuts for most by fall 2018.
- There is a 50-50 probability that Obamacare Repeal and Replace will be passed and become law by fall 2018. [This issue will not go away as Obamacare is self-destructing with high premiums, increasing state costs and insurance company losses.]
Media
Don’t forget the Tuchfarber 30 Day test—when you get upset about something in the news ask if it is likely to be IMPORTANT IN 30 days or soOnly seldom will it be so and you can usually ignore it.
China’s Politics and Economy
I will bring back the detailed economic and political analysis of the situation in China on a regular basis, probably monthly, but will report weekly only major new events and policies.
Opinion and Commentary
Thanksgiving in America
We are unsettled as a nation…
That is an understatement…
Sex crimes…opioid crisis…political polarization…racial polarization…anger and hatred…all abound…
But, important things go very well…
Lowest unemployment in 17 years…
Wages rising faster than inflation…finally…
Imminent tax cuts for almost all…
Deregulation of our strangled businesses…
Whenever I get worried about our wonderful country I quickly find my way back to two absolute facts…
- WE AMERICANS ARE A GREAT…STRONG…FAIR…GOOD…AND RESILIENT PEOPLE…
- AMERICA’ S INSTITUTIONS ARE STRONG AND POWERFUL…ABLE TO RESIST ALMOST ANY ASSAULT FROM ANY QUARTER…INTERNAL OR EXTERNAL…
Look around the world and ask yourself where else you would want to live…
So…over the Thanksgiving holiday…try to step back and put things in perspective…
I WISH YOU ALL A HAPPY THANKSGIVING IN THE GREATEST LAND ON EARTH…
Until next week…
Al Tuchfarber
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati