In Brief
- Tax reform is very likely yet this year or early next. The current Senate bill will be amended multiple times before its final vote. If both houses of Congress pass bills, a Conference Committee will make substantial further changes. So, stay tuned…much can and will change.
- The partisan coalitions of groups that make up our two parties have changed markedly with the Republicans becoming the white working-class and middle-class party and the Democrats—a bi-modal party of both the rich and of minorities and the poor. These changes have caused a dramatic shift in which states are safe Republican states and which are safe Democratic states. This week’s issue continues a 4-PART series about our changing political geography with a focus on the South-Central/Border states of AR…KY…LA…MO…TN…and WV.
- The wages of the sins of sex abuse and sexual harassment are coming home to roost in Hollywood, DC, media-land and throughout the US. The genie is out of the bottle and will not go quietly back inside. Many of the guilty and their enablers, as well as some of the innocent, will be in the spotlight for months or years to come. Our politics and society will suffer shock after shock. Many media, political and professional careers will be lost.
In-Depth
What’s Important
Sex and Politics
New political and social convulsions around sex, media and politics continue apace.
So far all we have seen is the tip of the iceberg…Harvey Weinstein…Bill Clinton…Al Franken… admitting guilt and apologizing.
Roy Moore, John Conyers, Glenn Thrush [NYT], Donald Trump, Charlie Rose and many others are accused…guilty or not…we do not know yet…various “juries” will speak.
Criminal courts…civil courts…kangaroo courts… and the court of public opinion are all going to come into play.
Tens of thousands of girls, boys and women who were sexually abused or harassed are consulting with friends, relatives and lawyers. Others, not actually abused, are looking for a quick buck. We all need to recognize both realities. Many accusations will be truthful, and some will not. Many of the guilty will be flushed out, but so too will be some who are innocent. WE MUST BE CAREFUL AND FAIR TO BOTH VICTIMS AND THE ACCUSED. Remember we all have a Constitutional right to being innocent until proven guilty of a crime or civil infraction by a jury of our peers.
It is already ugly and likely to get much worse.
This crisis is not going away anytime soon and will have widespread political, social and legal consequences.
On Dec. 12, in an early test, the voters of Alabama will have to sort things out enough to choose a US Senator. Who will the voters believe? Roy Moore or his accusers? Who should they believe? Evidence supporting both sides exists. Some of the women’s accusatory evidence looks highly questionable but Roy Moore’s lawyers parse words as well as Bill and Hillary…neither good signs of truthfulness.
Donald Trump’s election strategy appears to be to imply Alabama Republicans need not vote for Moore but do not need to vote for Democrat Jones either.
It appears that all statutes of limitations on Moore ran out decades ago, and that the voters of Alabama will now be prosecutor, judge and jury in what has become a political trial.
I’ll make no predictions until the last weekend, if then.
Stay tuned…
Elections
Our Shifting Democratic and Republican States
part II of IV: south central & border states
Two weeks ago, we investigated how the groups that make up the Democratic and Republican party coalitions have changed dramatically. Last week we listed the 15 states that have moved between the parties, in either direction, since the 1996 Clinton-Dole battle.
Two, CO and VA, went from R to D, while the rest went D to R. Today we look at six South Central and Border states that shifted dramatically to the Republicans.
South central & Border States Changing parties From R to D: 1996 to 2016 [Percent]
| State | ’96 D Vic. | ’16 D Vic. | Net | ’90 White% | ’16 White% | ’16 Hisp & Asian% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | +17D | +27R | +44R | 82 | 72 | 7 |
| KY | +1D | +30R | +31R | 92 | 84 | 5 |
| LA | +12D | +20R | +32R | 66 | 59 | 7 |
| MO | +7D | +19R | +26R | 87 | 79 | 6 |
| TN | +2D | +26R | +28R | 83 | 73 | 8 |
| WV | +14D | +43R | +57R | 96 | 93 | 1 |
For perspective, note how our different ethnic groups cast their votes nationally—from the most polarized to the least.
Racial Voting in 2016 – Nationwide
| Group | % All Voters | Clinton % | Trump % |
|---|---|---|---|
| African-American | 12 | 88 | 8 |
| Latino/Hispanic | 11 | 65 | 29 |
| Asian | 4 | 65 | 29 |
| White/Non-Lat. | 70 | 37 | 58 |
| Other/Mixed | 3 | 56 | 37 |
The shift of the South-Central & Border states from the Democrats to the Republicans was not just a recent or mainly a Trump phenomenon, but he did strengthen it. Bill Clinton won theses states comfortably, for the most part, in 1996, by an average of 9 points. Gore, Obama and Hillary lost them ever since with HRC losing them by an average of 36 points…an astounding figure. These 6 states shifted to the Republicans in a deep fundamental way.
As in the cases of CO and VA racial voting was important. Those two formerly “red” states became “blue” as their white percentage of the population fell by 12 and 14% of their totals. Their Hispanic and Asian populations increased rapidly.
By contrast, in the six South-Central states discussed here, their white populations fell by only 1 to 8% of the total, with only modest numbers of Latinos and Asians residing in any of the six states.
Much of the change from D to R was due to the nature of the racial composition in the states and for whom the ethnic groups there are now voting. So too, education, class and gender interacted in ways that caused change.
In the six states many working-class whites felt abandoned by the Democratic party as the Ds instead sought out Hispanic, Asian and Millennial voters and lost touch with their traditional blue-collar base. The working-class whites switched first to Bush, McCain and Romney, but then overwhelmingly to Trump. There was also a contraflow from R to D of upscale white women, but in these states, it was modest in size.
Also, important in these states and others are huge percentages of white evangelical Christians who are now voting by a net of about 70% more for Rs than Ds.
These states also have numerous small cities, towns and rural areas where Rs now do extremely well.
Overall, it is safe to conclude that …AR…KY…LA…MO…TN…and WV…are locked in the red column for the foreseeable future.
Next week, PART III will focus on the Great Lakes area states that went D to R in 2016. THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL DECIDE WHO WINS IN 2020.
PART IV will look, the following week, at how two factors are hurting Democrats in an increasing number of elections— “wasted votes” and “moving-truck gerrymandering”.
Major Legislation and Policies
Tax Reform
As of the Sunday morning political shows before the key Obamacare votes several months ago key Republican Senators like Susan Collins [ME] and Lisa Murkowski [AK] had announced their opposition and planned NO votes. Only John McCain’s NO vote was a surprise.
As of this Sunday afternoon, no R NO vote has been declared suggesting two important things:
- There are not now 3 R NO votes committed to killing the Senate bill.
- The negotiations are still going hot and heavy.
It is certain that few Democratic votes are there in either house to pass tax reform. There were none when the House passed their bill 227-205, with 13 R “no’s” as well as 192 D “no’s”. Any analyst or politician telling you otherwise is either lying to you or is living in a dream world. [The Republicans did the same thing when Obamacare was passed.]
There may be a few D votes at the very end, but almost surely none designed to actually help get a final bill passed. The polarization and partisanship are extreme in BOTH PARTIES.
If both houses do pass different bills…highly likely…there will then be a Conference Committee to work out the differences. Don’t assume, in this step, that the modus operandi will just be to just split the differences that exist. Some will just be split, but other compromises will go off in unexpected directions
Also, in this step, before final votes on what must be identical bills in both houses, new features not in either house’s version can be introduced.
An example is the insertion in the Senate bill, last week, of a provision to eliminate the Obamacare mandate that all purchase or have health insurance. That frees up over $300 billion more for tax cuts or paying for specific further tax breaks previously not in either bill because they were unaffordable given Senate rules on budgeting. That provision may or may not stay in the Senate bill. It all depends on getting majority passage in both houses with only Republican votes.
There are many…many…moving parts. Taking ANY single change in isolation is unwise when you think about your own tax bill.
Passage of tax reform is highly likely this year or early next.
Stay tuned but don’t hold your breath as changes will come for at least another few weeks.
Predictions
THERE ARE NO changes this week
Political Predictions – Elections
- The chance the Rs will lose at least a few seats in the 2018 House elections is 80 to 90 percent.
- The chance the Rs will lose their 241-194 House majority in 2018 is 10 to 20 percent.
- The chance the Republicans will still control the Senate after next year’s elections is 90 to 95%.
- The chance the Ds lose three or more of their 48 Senate seats in ’18 is 85 to 90 percent.
- The chance that Donald Trump will be the 202o R nominee is 90 to 95 percent.
- The chance that Trump will win a 2nd term is 80 to 85 percent.
Policy and Legislative Predictions
- There is an 80-90% probability the Congress will pass and Trump sign major tax reform and tax cuts for most by fall 2018.
- There is a 50-50 probability that Obamacare Repeal and Replace will be passed and become law by fall 2018. [This issue will not go away as Obamacare is self-destructing with high premiums, increasing state costs and insurance company losses.]
Democrats on Democrats
Chris Matthews, MSNBC newsman, former political-legend Tip O’Neill’s chief-of staff, and famous for “tingles-down-his-leg” over Obama is at war with elements of his own party. That is especially true of the progressive-wing led by Sanders and Warren who seem relatively unbothered by the party abandoning the white working class to the Republicans.
Matthews loses his grip with some regularity these days but still knows politics. And, he knows his party cannot take back the House, Senate or White House without getting back a significant chunk of the blue-collar crowd they have lost to Trump and the Rs in general.
Recently Mathews said…” You know, ever since we started this Archie Bunker thing in the early ‘70s, making fun of white working people, we kissed them goodbye.” … “You make fun of people, you look down on them? They get the message. You call them deplorables [Hillary Clinton]? They hear it. You bet they hear it. You say they cling to their guns and their religion [Obama]? Oh yeah, I cling to my religion. OK. I’m a little person, and you’re a big person. Thank you. I’ll be voting for the other guy this time.”
The combination of an ideological civil war and the carnage from all the current and coming sexual accusations is going to make it hard for the Ds to pick their best candidates in 2018 and 2020 and get them elected.
Recall the problems the Rs had with the Tea Party movement which took them about 5 or 6 years to sort out and from which we still hear echoes.
The Democratic Party’s Civil War between the progressive-wing and the traditional labor-wing is going to be intense and ugly. It is well underway but not especially visible yet. It will burst into full color shortly after the first of the year as candidates declare for statewide, Congressional and legislative seats. As was true with the Republicans during the Tea Party revolt many incumbent Democratic office-holders will be challenged because they are not ideological enough for the energized firebrands in the party.
Media
Media Dilemma
IN OUR NEW AND LIKELY LONG-TERM FRENZY OF CALLING OUT AND PUNISHING SEX ABUSERS AND HARASSERS THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA HAS A REAL DILEMMA…
Who do they want to destroy and who save?
Will they even get to choose?
Plenty of men and even some women are at risk because of the past sexual behavior.
If you trash Moore do you have to trash Franken…drive them out or keep them out of office?
If you trash Bill and Hillary can you get Trump? Do you risk it? What do they have on you?
You got Bill O’Reilly… are you happy getting Charlie Rose? Who is next?
John Conyers for Joe Barton?
Don’t forget the Tuchfarber 30 Day test—when you get upset about something in the news ask if it is likely to be IMPORTANT IN 30 days or soOnly seldom will it be so and you can usually ignore it.
Global Politics
Merkel and Germany’s Dilemma
Several months ago, the German voters elected six different parties to their parliament—just 5 % of the vote is required to receive seats. The six were Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU, the Social-Democrats[SPD], the radical right [AfD], the Left, the Greens and the FDP, a business oriented party.
The Social Democrats were the 2nd largest party but initially refused to govern in a coalition with Merkel as they felt they suffered in such an arrangement last time out. They are now reconsidering with the outcome unknown.
Merkel had tried since the election to get the Greens and the FDP to agree to a coalition, but the negotiations appear dead because the policy differences were just too wide to span.
Unless the SPD cooperates, Germany is headed back to another election, but that may change little.
These contretemps are important for two major reasons. Germany and Merkel have been the stable center of Europe since before the Great Recession in 2008-9. Without them things could have gotten much worse.
But, Europe has no clear direction. Its countries and institutions are thrashing around both on the continent and on the British Isles. Russia, anomie, Islamic radicals, unassimilated refugees from recently and a generation ago all defy essential assimilation. Their social-welfare state is too expensive to maintain long-term as the continent ages rapidly.
We in the US have many problems but they pale compared to those of Europe, China, Japan, and Russia to name our major competitors.
I’ll follow this German political story for now but plan to write about the problems of the others in coming months. I will do so comparing them to the US.
China’s Politics and Economy
I will bring back the detailed economic and political analysis of the situation in China on a regular basis, probably monthly, but will report weekly only major new events and policies.
China Watch
China is trying to get more serious about regulating its shadow banking industry, and especially investments known as “wealth management products”. These are sold by financial institutions, including many banks, as investments. Technically they are NOT guaranteed by the seller or the government, but Chinese investors have assumed they are. The government is now making clear these products are not guaranteed by the government or major banks owned by the government.
Such reform is essential but will inevitably substantially slow economic growth as less credit will be available to spur economic activity. And, credit has been the fuel for Chinese growth since 2009.
Until next week…
Al Tuchfarber
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati