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Al
THE TUCHFARBER REPORT
Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts
In-Brief
- The Trump-Kim summit starts tonight and tomorrow.
- Success is by no means guaranteed, but the summit itself is progress.
- No Democratic blue tidal way is suggested by the primaries so far.
- Trump can pardon himself, but he, and all Presidents, are NOT above the law.
- PREDICTION: The Democrats will gain 5 to 15 US House seats this fall, almost all in coastal, metropolitan districts. They will not take control from the Republicans.
- PREDICTION: The Republicans will gain 4 to 7 US Senate seats, almost all in “heartland” states. They will add to their current razor-thin majority.
In-Depth
What’s Important
Hopes and Fears in Negotiations with N Korea
No one should let their hopes or fears about the Trump-Kim summit get out-of-control. The summit may or may not produce positive results. It is neither the first step to peace, nor the last. This is a process that is likely to take years.
The process began with President Trump abandoning the failed strategy of “strategic patience” that was US policy for the last 30 years. He made it clear that the existential threat that N Korea’s intercontinental, nuclear-tipped missiles created for the US is completely unacceptable and will not stand.
Kim Jong-un got the message.
Early this year in Korea, he launched a charm campaign and unexpectedly offered to meet directly with President Trump.
Trump accepted.
Kim then decided to bluster and play hardball…to play games… after engaging in a couple weeks of sweetness and light.
Trump said, in effect, “Meeting off… if you want to be serious let us know.”
Kim blinked.
THE SUMMIT IS ON.
The implicit and quite serious message from the US is that Kim has two options. The first option is to completely de-nuclearize the North and the entire peninsula. If that happens Kim stays alive, keeps his luxuries, and the family dynasty survives. The second option is the Libyan option…Kim ends up dead or in prison for the rest of his life.
I’m not being hyperbolic here. Those are Kim’s choices. Many suggest Kim has room to maneuver. I suggest he has little maneuvering room. Neither Trump nor China offer him much flexibility on his nuclear options.
Pundits, analysts, journalists, and former diplomats offer no end of complicated scenarios and theories. My view is that within the next couple years or so, only the two options noted above are Kim’s real options.
The status quo on the Korean peninsula will not persist as it has during the Clinton, G W Bush, and Obama presidencies. Major change may require a series of meetings and difficult negotiations, but there will be major change… one way or another.
Stay tuned…
Long-Term
Can Presidents Pardon Themselves?
The simple answer is YES.
The Constitution is clear on this issue. It specifically limits the president’s pardon power only in that presidents cannot pardon their own impeachment or that of other federal officials.
They can pardon any other federal judicial action.
Is the President above the law? NO!
Although the federal judiciary and courts cannot punish a sitting president, two “bodies” can.
First, the Congress can impeach and remove a president. Congress, as a collective body, speaks for and represents the American people. Second, a president who has dissatisfied or offended the people can be voted out of office, after the first term, by not being re-elected.
Elections
What the Primaries Tell Us So far
Seven of the 10 largest states have conducted their primaries so far. There is no indication that a massive Democratic Blue Tidal Wave is developing. It also does not look like the Republicans will escape damage in CA, PA, and other key states.
The Democratic civil war rages between the establishment wing and the progressive wing, with both nominating some of their candidates after vigorous battles.
Neither party has yet to nominate a sure-loser for a nationally important major office.
Polls and Media
Don’t forget the Tuchfarber 30 Day test — when you get upset about something in the news, ask if it is likely to be IMPORTANT in 30 days or so. Only seldom will it be relevant then. So, ignore it and lower your blood pressure.
Tidbits
“Spygate” or Legitimate FBI Investigation?
Many Republicans, conservatives, and the President accuse the Obama administration’s FBI of improperly spying on the Trump campaign, starting in early 2016.
A few Republicans, and most liberals and Democrats say “No,” it was perfectly sensible to use the FBI to monitor individuals connected to the campaign who had known connections to Russians.
Expect many more facts to come out about this issue in coming weeks and months.
We’ll keep our powder dry for a while, but repeat our question from last week… “Will it be OK for the Trump administration to monitor the 2020 Democratic campaigns using the FBI?”
Republican’s Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and Trey Gowdy have opined that the investigation [“spying”] by the FBI and perhaps other federal agencies was appropriate and legal. Is that misdirection on their part? If that precedent is established, it will OK for Trump administration agencies to do the same and report to the President what they find on the grounds of national security. Let’s see how well that goes over.
There will be many more revelations about the FBI monitoring of the Trump campaign. So too, there will be constant info on all the other scandals that are brewing, as well as new ones that emerge.
Predictive Political & Economic Measures
2018 Election Prediction Summary
Below are several election and policy predictions that I present each week and change if my indicators change. Speaking only to the 2018 election predictions, my current evaluation is:
- The Republicans will lose 5 to 15 net US House seats but maintain a small majority.
- The Democrats will lose 4 to 7 US Senate seats with the Republicans adding to their current razor-thin 51-49 majority.
POLITICAL MEASURES
- Right Direction-Wrong Track — “Wrong Track” is now at 55%, up 1% from last week. It has proven to be a good indicator if the party “in-power” was going to do well or badly. [ If the “wrong-track” reading is 62% or higher, it bodes ill for them. If 58% or lower, they do well.]
- Generic Congressional Ballot — The polls I’m averaging are at 46% D and 38% R, the D lead up 5% from last week. [Because D voters are so concentrated in urban cores, Democrats need to be ahead 4 to 6% on this measure to tie the Rs for the 435 US House seats spread across urban, suburban, small town, and rural districts.]
- Presidential Approval — Trump’s approval rating is 43%, down 3% over the week.
ECONOMIC MEASURES
- U-3 official unemployment rate—The current level is 3.8%, an 18-year low. Low or falling levels of this measure are a positive for the “in” party. It is low and falling now, down from 4.8% a year ago.
- U-6 unemployment rate [broadest measure, including under-employment] — The current level is 7.6%. This is a very low level and fell from 9.4% a year ago.
- GDP GROWTH — Growth last quarter was 2.3% which is significantly higher than the average growth over the last eight years. Forecasts for the current quarter suggest growth over 3%.
WAR
- The jobs and war issues are the 500-pound gorillas of American public opinion. If the economy is bad or there is a major unpopular war, the party in power is in trouble. Neither is the case now.
WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Last Week’s Important Events Were:
- N Korea reverted to its typical bombast and rhetoric. It threatened to cancel the June 12 summit between Trump and Kim, but Trump cancelled it first. Kim clearly blinked when Trump pushed back on his gamesmanship. The summit is now on again for tomorrow, June 12. Don’t expect a stunning breakthrough, but a process of establishing trust between Kim and Trump that can lead to further steps. Also possible is a walkout by Trump if he comes to believe Kim is not serious about denuclearization.
- The political metrics I use to judge political trends continue to move in favor of the Republicans, with a one-week reversal in favor of the Ds last week. We’ll see if the Democrats have regained momentum.
- President Trump was politically damaged by Rudy Giuliani’s assertion he can pardon himself. He can, except he cannot pardon himself from his own impeachment and removal, were that ever to occur.
Predictions
Election Predictions
- 80-90%: the probability the Rs will lose seats in the 2018 House elections
- 10-20%: the probability that the Rs will lose control of the House in 2018
- 90-95%: the probability that the Rs will still control the Senate in 2019
- 90-95%: the chance that the Ds will lose seats in the 2018 Senate elections
- 50%: the chance the Republicans will gain five or more Senate seats in the 2018 elections
- 80-85%: the chance that Trump will be re-elected in 2020
Policy & Legislative Predictions
- There is more than a 70% chance that pressure on the DACA–“Dreamer” — issue will force the Democrats to negotiate a deal with President Trump on the border wall and other immigration issues this year.
- The chance that Donald Trump will be impeached and removed from office by the Congress in the next three years is less than 1%. *
*NOTE: Remember that after being impeached by a Republican controlled House in 1998, not one Democratic Senator voted to remove Bill Clinton from office. It takes 67 votes and is more of a political process than a legal one. NO President has ever been impeached and removed. Richard Nixon resigned before the House and Senate could impeach and remove him from office.
Important Tidbits
Giuliani Hurting Trump Politically and with N Korea
Rudy Giuliani, one of Trump’s lawyers and former mayor of NYC, last week damaged the President politically and with N Korea’s Kim. Giuliani went a bit rogue.
Politically, Giuliani’s unnecessary assertion that Trump can pardon himself caused a firestorm and probably lowered Trump’s approval rating by the 3% it fell last week. It was a politically stupid assertion. [See the Long-Term story above explaining whether presidents can pardon themselves.]
Giuliani also interjected that Kim Jong-un begged Trump to get the summit rescheduled after the dictator’s own bluster scuppered it. Giuliani’s assertion was true, but totally inappropriate coming from him. His roles with Trump do not include foreign policy or angering foreign leaders. Trump himself holds that portfolio.
US Drowning in Unpayable Debt?
Doomsayers and folks with a selfish agenda frequently report that the $21T US public debt means, theoretically, that every man, woman, and child in the US “owes” about $65,000.
What is almost never reported at the same time is that the net worth of US households and not-for-profit organizations is now over $100T. [Reported by Federal Reserve last week.]
That means, again theoretically, that every US man, woman, and child is ahead by almost $250,000.
We have a very large national debt, but it is manageable. We have huge wealth, an incredibly productive economy, and an inventive, entrepreneurial, hard-working people.
ALL AROUND THE WORLD, BUT ESPECIALLY WE OURSELVES, SHOULD NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THIS COUNTRY OR ITS PEOPLE.
Until next week…
Al Tuchfarber
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati
Al.Tuchfarber@gmail.com
Tuchfarber Political-Economics LLC, Inc.
Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the nation’s most accurate, while directing the social science Institute for Policy Research from 1975 to 2004. He also founded and directed the Institute for Health Policy from 1996 to 2004. He is an engaging and dynamic speaker and has published over 100 articles and papers about politics, society, and research methods.
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