THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

1. Trump ends nuclear deal with Iran and returns sanctions.
2. Three Korean-Americans freed by N Korea in good-will gesture before June 12 summit.
3. Iran’s attack on Israel threatens major war.
4. Primaries in OH, NC, IN, and WV provided more evidence that a Democratic Blue Tidal Wave is NOT forming.
5. PREDICTION: The Democrats will gain 5 to 15 US House seats this fall.
6. PREDICTION: The Republicans will gain 4 to 7 US Senate seats.

In-Depth

Elections

A Democratic Blue Wave?

We have had primaries in six states so far—IL and TX in March, and IN, NC, OH, and WV last Tuesday. That includes four of the ten most-populated states.  Collectively and individually no evidence of a Democratic Blue Wave has emerged. The pundits keep predicting one, but they predicted a Clinton landslide in 2016. Let’s stick to the real votes.

The “experts” predicted major breakthroughs for the Ds in Texas, but that did not occur. Ohio, a traditional battleground state, should have produced Democratic successes if a Blue Wave was developing. But it produced numbers more like 2010 and 2014 when Republicans swept the elections, rather than like 2006 when the Democrats did.

The Republican gubernatorial race drew 827,000 voters and the Democratic race 680,000. That is a 55-45 ratio, very close to the 2010 and 2014 ratios when the Republicans swept the field. It is nothing like 2006 when the partisan primary vote was 50-50 and the Ds ended up winning the general elections for Governor and Senator.

Neither party, in the four states voting last week, nominated any sure losers in a major race. That may happen in other states but has not happened so far to either party.

In IN and WV, Democratic Senators Donnelly and Manchin have drawn credible Republican opponents. Those races start as toss-ups. In Ohio, former congressman Jim Renacci [R] was nominated to run against a very skilled Sherrod Brown {D]. That is an uphill battle for Renacci, but Brown is vulnerable if turnout is low this year.

One of the big keys this fall will be black turnout and I see no evidence of political energy driving the development of high or even average black turnout across the US. Among Democrats, only upscale white women appear to be especially energized.

Let’s watch the rest of the primaries play out…

Watch Pennsylvania

Last week we watched the primary elections in OH, NC, WV, and IN. We learned a great deal about the political lay of the land. Tomorrow, PA, NE, OR, and ID vote. We’ll learn more from those primaries, especially from PA where the state courts have redrawn the US House districts to favor the Ds.

On a local, greater Cincinnati note

If you live outside Greater Cincinnati and Ohio please excuse a local analysis. I get asked constantly about the US House race in OH-01. Long-time incumbent Steve Chabot [R] is running against the up-and-coming Aftab Pureval [D].

This race has drawn national attention, and Chabot is a target of the national Ds, even though he won the seat 59-41 in 2016 and 63-37 in 2014. Pureval is viewed as a hot young talent by local and national prognosticators.

That may be, but the district sets up nicely for Chabot and I predict he will win easily this year…probably by 12-16%.

The district consists of western and central Hamilton County [Cincinnati] and Warren County northeast of the City. Vote-wise, Hamilton County is 60-65% of the total and Warren 35-40%. Hamilton County now leans slightly Democratic, but Warren County is 70-80% R.

It is important to note that Chabot fits the demographics and political-culture of the Hamilton County part of the district well.

In the primaries, with hotly contested battles for Governor in both parties, the total votes in the OH-01 primaries had 52000 R voters and 35000 D voters. The bulk of the difference was in Warren County where the Rs out-polled the Ds 24000 to 8000.

As noted in the article above, no Democratic Wave has yet emerged, and it would take a huge one to swamp Chabot. Pureval is an unknown in much of the district, and especially an unknown in suburban-exurban Warren County.

Chabot could lose, but it would take an enormous error on his part—unlikely– or a huge national Blue Wave we have yet to see in actual voting. The Democrats may be energized in NYC, SF, Boston and LA but that means little in flyover country.

Polls and Media

Generic Congressional Ballot Polls

Late last year and early in 2018 the Democrats had a double-digit lead in many polls that measure voter preference for either the Democrats or Republicans controlling the US House of Representatives. This measure is widely used by political analysts and pundits.

The 10-point plus lead then led many to declare a Democratic Blue Wave was likely this fall.

Because D votes are more concentrated in urban areas than Rs, and often win those seats with huge majorities, they must get 3 to 5% more votes overall than the Republicans to win the same number of House seats. Being more spread out, Republican votes are more “efficient” at winning modest majorities.

Polls conducted the last two weeks among registered and likely voters now have the Democratic lead down to 4 percent. The multi-month trend is toward the Republicans and strongly suggest no D tidal wave growing.

But, then again, it is still six months to the elections.

Stay tuned…

Don’t forget the Tuchfarber 30 Day test — when you get upset about something in the news, ask if it is likely to be IMPORTANT in 30 days or so. Only seldom will it be relevant then. So, ignore it and lower your blood pressure.

Global Politics

Iran Attacks Israel and the Israelis Retaliate Massively

Last week the Iranians in Syria made a catastrophic error by launching 20 or so short-range rockets at Israeli military positions. They failed to do any major damage, but Israel, as is their right, massively retaliated against Iranian military facilities in Syria. About 50 such facilities were attacked and all seriously damaged by a combination of airplane and missile attacks

This event is a massive embarrassment for Iran, Syria and Russia. It is even worse than the embarrassment of a few weeks ago when US planes and missiles used long-range stand-off weapons to destroy Syrian chemical weapon facilities.

Iran and Syria clearly cannot defend themselves from the Israelis or Americans, French, and Brits. Significantly, in neither case did the Russians intervene, even though they have the most sophisticated anti-air weapons in Syria. Their choice was probably driven by a desire not to get Russians killed by anti-AA counter-weapons and by a realization that their weaponry would be unable to stop most of the attack anyway.

All three appear weak and inept.

Iran has now put itself in a lose-lose box. If they do not strike back in retaliation for the massive Israeli attack, they look even weaker at home and abroad. If they do strike back against facilities or cities in Israel, the Israelis will again retaliate massively, almost surely in Iran proper. They have the capacity and will to do that. Either way, Iran loses badly.

Iran already faces severe regime in-fighting, which has undoubtedly been worsened by this disaster. It is likely to create even more political turmoil on the streets of Iranian cities in future weeks.

Iran Under Multiple Attacks and Threats

Before the Iranian attack, President Trump took the US out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] with Iran. This is an agreement between Iran and six parties–the US, China, Russia, Germany, UK, and France. It constrains Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Because he did not certify Iran’s compliance, extensive and damaging US sanctions against Iran are likely to go back into place.

The problem with the agreement, from Trump’s perspective, is that Iran is adhering to the letter of the agreement, but not the spirit

The agreement was weak and did not prohibit Iran from getting nuclear weapons in a decade or so, only delayed them in getting such weapons.

Iran was continuing to develop ballistic missiles with the help of N Korea.

They were supporting terrorists in Syria, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and elsewhere.

Generally, they are a substantial threat to regional peace in the Middle-east and gradually becoming an existential threat to US cities, as had N Korea.

Our European allies have already agreed to push for additional constraints on Iran but are angry at the US for dropping out of the agreement. This is principally because their major international corporations have lucrative deals pending with the Iranians.

But Iran, itself, is under attack or experiencing severe stress in at least four major ways. They are:

1. Iran’s economy is a disaster and its currency is in free-fall against the dollar, greatly reducing the lifestyles of average Iranians. Inflation is very high.
2. Partially because of the above, and for other political reasons, the Iranian people are rising in protest in many cities. Those protests are not yet a serious threat to the theocratic regime but exhibit dangerous political and economic turmoil. There will be anger at the US and Israel. There will also be anger at the corrupt, inept, theocratic regime that failed to advance the quality of life in a country that has many resources and a well-educated population.
3. As noted in the previous story, Iran is in an under-reported shooting war with Israel. The Israelis are bombing Iranian bases in Syria and killing dozens.
4. Finally, if a deal is struck to rein in N Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, such a deal will become a model likely to be directed next at Iran. Trump has made clear he will not tolerate rogue states with weapons that make US cities vulnerable to destruction.

Stay tuned to Iran, as much is likely to change in the next year or so.

Tidbits, Follow-ups, Nuggets, and Reminders

This section is devoted to short, interesting items, and brief follow-ups to stories from previous issues.

Korean-Americans Released by N Korea

Secretary of State Pompeo flew home with three Korean-American prisoners of N Korea last week. They were welcomed by the President and First Lady. Kim Jong-un ordered them released as one of many goodwill gestures before the denuclearization and peace talks on June 12 in Singapore.

There are many positive signs about those talks, but caution is the word. Trump has made clear his plan is to get a comprehensive denuclearization plan with vigorous, intrusive enforcement. Otherwise he says he will “walk.” Either will be better than a bad deal. Politically, Trump wins in the US with either eventuality.

Trump’s attorney a slime-ball

Michael Cohen, Trump’s “fixer” attorney, is clearly a slime-ball. It appears he defrauded numerous major companies with promises he had access to the President he did not have. He joins Paul Manafort in the ranks of slime-balls.

Predictive Political & Economic Measures

2018 election prediction summary

Below are several election and policy predictions that I present each week and change if my indicators change. Speaking only to the 2018 election predictions, my current evaluation is:

1. The Republicans will lose 5 to 15 net US House seats but maintain a small majority.
2. CHANGE: The Democrats will lose 4 to 7 US Senate seats with the Republicans adding to their current razor-thin 51-49 majority. [CHANGED TO 4 To 7, UP FROM 2 TO 7.] The basis for this change is extensive polling showing but one or two Republican Senate seats are at serious risk. Eight or more Democratic held Senate seats are “in-play”.

POLITICAL MEASURES

1. Right Direction-Wrong Track— This measure is widely used by pollsters, asking if things are going well or badly in the US. It has proven to be a good indicator if the party “in-power” was going to do well or badly. If the “wrong-track” reading is 62% or higher, it bodes ill for them. If 58% or lower, they do well. THIS IS MY MOST-PREFERRED ELECTION PREDICTION MEASURE. I use many quantitative and qualitative indicators, but this one seems to strip out a lot of extraneous noise. “Wrong-Track” is now at 52%, down 1% from last week.
2. Generic Congressional Ballot—Also used by many pollsters, this indicator measures the current preferences of voters for which party they prefer in US House races. The polls I’m averaging are now at 43% D and 39% R, the D lead down 2% from last week. More important is that the Democratic lead has fallen from about 13% at the beginning of 2018 to 4% now. Historically, Ds need a solid lead on this measure to win a House majority.
3. Presidential Approval—Trump’s approval rating, using my measure, is now 46%, unchanged and a significant jump of 3% from two weeks ago. We’ll see if this increase persists and look to see why, if it continues. His approval rating is up from 40% at the start of the year. It’s at a below-average level for recent Presidents. But because of his unique and often disruptive style, the Gallup organization and others, including myself, believe this measure underestimates his real approval ratings by 5% or more. I will report his approval rating, but will use it for trend analysis, not election predictions.

ECONOMIC MEASURES

4. U-3 official unemployment rate—The current level is 3.9%, a 17-year low. Low or falling levels of this measure are a positive for the “in” party. It is low and falling now, down from 4.8% a year ago.
5. U-6 unemployment rate [broadest measure, including under-employment]—The current level is 7.8%. This is a very low level and fell from 9.4% a year ago.
6. GDP GROWTH—Growth last quarter was 2.3% which is significantly higher than the average growth over the last eight years.

WAR

7. The jobs issue and war issue are the 500-pound gorillas of American public opinion. If the economy is bad or there is a major unpopular war, the party in power is in trouble. Unpopular wars, like Vietnam and Iraq, shatter their support. Small wars, like Afghanistan and Syria are nearly always underway and usually do not have major effect unless they grow substantially in the cost in US lives.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS

How does one sum up an important week like last week? Let’s start by just noting the major events.

1. N Korea announced it was destroying its nuclear test site. That may be because it was almost destroyed in the last test, but it means additional tests are many years distant, if they ever occur. The Trump-Kim summit will occur in Singapore on June 12.
2. Three Korean-Americans were returned in dramatic fashion from N Korean prisons in a good-faith gesture by the Kim regime and a success for Trump and new Secretary of State Pompeo.
3. Tuesday primaries in IN, NC, OH, and WV saw both parties nominating credible candidates for major offices. Turnout, especially in battleground Ohio, gave no indication a Democratic Blue Wave was building. In fact, the opposite was true, with Republicans voting in much larger numbers than Democrats.
4. President Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA, the nuclear deal with Iran. This led to joy from some allies and chagrin from others.
5. Iran attacked Israeli military sites with rockets. In return Israel attacked and destroyed about 50 Iranian military facilities in Syria. Regardless of what Iran does next, they are in a lose-lose situation.
6. The political metrics I use to judge political trends are all moving in favor of the Republicans. The economic indicators continue to be strongly positive for them as well.

President Trump has taken the mantle of world leader. He clearly leads the developed Western world. Many other national leaders dislike that, but it is true nonetheless. He now has everyone reacting to him and the US.

Substantial numbers of people in the US and Europe dislike Trump’s policies and actions, but the simple fact is that he is dominating world discussions and policy change.

No one but the US President can lead the West. The US must and is doing so arguably for the first time since the Bill Clinton years.

It is still six months to the key November mid-term elections, but momentum just now is clearly with the Republicans. Watch the upcoming primaries for evidence the Ds are regaining momentum.

Predictions

Election Predictions

• 80-90%: the probability the Rs will lose seats in the 2018 House elections
• 10-20%: the probability that the Rs will lose control of the House in 2018
• 90-95%: the probability that the Rs will still control the Senate in 2019
• 90-95%: the chance that the Ds will lose seats in the 2018 Senate elections
• 50%: the chance the Republicans will gain five or more Senate seats in the 2018 elections
• 90-95%: the chance that Donald Trump will be the 2020 Republican nominee unless he decides not to run
• 80-85%: the chance that Trump will be re-elected in 2020

Policy & Legislative Predictions

• The odds that the 2^nd amendment will be repealed or changed are less than 1 percent. It takes three-quarters of all the states to make such a change. That is essentially a political impossibility.
• There is more than a 70% chance that pressure on the DACA – “Dreamer” – issue will force the Democrats to negotiate a deal with President Trump on the border wall and other immigration issues this year.
• The chance that Donald Trump will be impeached and removed from office by the Congress in the next three years is less than 1%. *
• The chance that Trump will be removed from office by the Congress in the next seven years is less than 5%.

*NOTE: Remember that after being impeached by a Republican controlled House in 1998, not one Democratic Senator voted to remove Bill Clinton from office. It takes 67 votes and is more of a political process than a legal one. NO President has ever been impeached and removed. Richard Nixon resigned before the House and Senate could impeach and remove him from office.

Until next week…
Al Tuchfarber
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati

Al.Tuchfarber@gmail.com
Tuchfarber Political-Economics LLC, Inc.

Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the nation’s most accurate, while directing the social science Institute for Policy Research from 1975 to 2004. He also founded and directed the Institute for Health Policy from 1996 to 2004. He is an engaging and dynamic speaker and has published over 100 articles and papers about politics, society, and research methods.