Site icon Tuchfarber Report

Unemployment at Record Lows; Kanye West Threatened; 2018 Campaign Messaging – Negative On – Trump, Hillary, Pelosi & Mueller

Al Tuchfarber

THE TUCHFARBER REPORT

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In-Brief

  1. The unemployment rate in the US falls to less than 4 percent…lowest since Bill Clinton was President.
  2. Kanye West is being viciously attacked and threatened with physical and financial retribution for his “bromance” with Trump.
  3. The main targets for negative campaign ads this year will be Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and Robert Mueller.
  4. Should an additional special counsel be named to investigate Hillary Clinton?
  5. PREDICTION: The Democrats will gain 5 to 15 US House seats this fall.
  6. PREDICTION: The Republicans will gain 4 to 7 US Senate seats. CHANGE: Senate gain prediction now 4 to 7, up from 2 to 7.

In-Depth

Elections

2018 Midterm Election Messaging

Individual races around the country will have unique messages related to district or state issues and to the positives and negatives of candidates.

But there will be “national” messages as well, ones that appear in ads and campaigns in almost every district and state. Jobs and unemployment are always important campaign themes and now rate as the voters’ top priority in extensive polling by Morning Consult. National and homeland security also rank high, but they can have a liberal or conservative twist…pro-immigration for liberals and anti-  for conservatives. Health care and issues about seniors are also frequently mentioned but can cut both ways.

Those issues and others are nearly always on the agenda in US elections. The Democrats will talk about tax cuts for the rich, inadequate health insurance, and the DACA “kids.” The Republicans will emphasize tax cuts for the middle class, border security, and, especially, low unemployment and the good economy.

Some voters will resonate strongly with one or more of those issues, but most won’t, at least not enough to increase turnout much above the normal base level in off-year elections…about 40 to 45 million “base” voters in each party. It is likely that the total turnout this November will be 90 to 95 million voters, down, as usual, from the 137 million in the 2016 presidential election.

Both parties know that they must “energize” even their partisans to get them to the polls.

Recall the messaging of 2016 at the national level. For Hillary Clinton it was… “I’m not Trump” … “I’m a woman” …and, “It’s my turn.” Almost all analysts now agree that was not very effective or compelling and is one reason she lost.

For Trump, the messages were…” Make American Great Again” …and, “Drain the Swamp.” You, personally, may like or dislike those messages, but note how much more visceral they are. They worked. They worked very well in heartland American away from the coastal megalopolises.

So, what have we as potential visceral messages in 2018?

The Ds will clearly run on “Resist Trump”, a potent message for their base and others who strongly dislike the President. But they have decided to forego a national theme of “Impeach Trump” as that does more to energize R turnout than it adds to D turnout.

It is hard to run against a President and party when economic times are good and there is no particularly unpopular war underway. Notwithstanding all the talk of a Democratic Blue Wave this year, the underlying fundamentals make major Democratic victories difficult.

The Republicans have more options on messages.

Depending on what happens with N Korea, they will have either an enormous success story or a story where Trump was tough and walked out like Reagan did on Gorbachev in 1986.

In addition, it is near certain they will run ads saying… “Aren’t you glad we didn’t elect Hillary president?” Also expect … “Do you really want Crazy Nancy Pelosi running the Congress?”

And, a recent addition to the list, if he is still actively working the case… “When will Special Counsel Robert Mueller finish his unconstitutional witch hunt?”

We’ll see what messages the independents and the “swing” voters respond to as they cast key votes in numerous elections. So too, we’ll see whether the R or D base gets more energized and turns out in disproportionate numbers. Many pundits have argued the Ds have an advantage there, but let’s see how things look in the fall when the average voter begins to pay attention to the elections.

A final note…as you yell at the TV ads please remember…good campaign messages are not directed at you if you are a strong R or D partisan. Rather, they are directed at independents and “swing” voters whose turning out and direction of voting is up-for-grabs.

Watch Ohio and West Virginia

Both Ohio and West Virginia have hotly contested primaries tomorrow. I’ll be watching the partisan turnout in the party primaries to see which party has more “energy.”

Neither of these states will provide an informative read on the civil war within the Democratic Party between “progressives” and “traditionalists.”  We’ll see that later in CA, VA, and many other states.

Polls and Media

Don’t forget the Tuchfarber 30 Day test — when you get upset about something in the news, ask if it is likely to be IMPORTANT in 30 days or so. Only seldom will it be relevant then. So, ignore it and lower your blood pressure.

Global Politics

Iran Under Attack

On Friday, May 12 this week, President Trump is required to certify or not certify that Iran is complying with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA]. This is an agreement between Iran and six parties–the US, China, Russia, Germany, UK, and France. It constrains Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

If he does not certify Iran’s compliance, extensive and damaging US sanctions are likely to go back into place. If he does certify, it will be because he is just kicking the can down the road a few months.

The problem is that Iran is adhering to the letter of the agreement, but not the spirit.

They are continuing to develop ballistic missiles with the help of N Korea.

They are supporting terrorists in Syria, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and elsewhere.

Generally, they are a substantial threat to regional peace in the Middle-east and gradually becoming an existential threat to US cities, as has N Korea.

If Trump does or does not certify compliance, our European allies have already agreed to push for additional constraints on Iran. Failing that, the JCPOA’s days are numbered.

But Iran, itself, is under attack and severe stress in at least five major ways. They are:

  1. Iran’s economy is a disaster and its currency is in free-fall against the dollar, greatly reducing the lifestyles of average Iranians. Inflation is very high.
  2. Partially because of the above, and for other political reasons, the Iranian people are rising in protest in many cities. Those protests are not yet a serious threat to the theocratic regime but exhibit dangerous pollical and economic turmoil.
  3. Iran is in a little reported shooting war with Israel. The Israelis are bombing Iranian bases in Syria and killing dozens. Iran has threatened to respond but has not yet done so. Israel, in turn, has said it will hit Iran itself if Iran hits Israel proper.
  4. The JCPOA’s days are numbered and new sanctions will push Iran further into economic distress.
  5. Finally, if a deal is struck to rein in N Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, such a deal will become a model likely to be directed next at Iran. Trump has made clear he will not tolerate rogue states with weapons that make US cities vulnerable to destruction.

Stay tuned to Iran, as much is likely to change in the remainder of this year.

TIdbits, Follow-ups, Nuggets, and Reminders

This section is devoted to short, interesting items, and brief follow-ups to stories from previous issues.

Kanye West

Black rapper, Kanye West, had the audacity to say he appreciated some of the things President Trump is doing for the black community. For example, on Friday the official unemployment statistics showed black unemployment at its lowest level ever recorded.

For his “sins,” West is being threatened physically and financially. At least one radio station has pulled his songs and a major sponsor, Adidas, is being threatened.

So much for free speech and other freedoms…

Musings

Robert Mueller, Witch Hunts, A Special Counsel For Hillary Clinton, and Constitutional Rights

Federal District Court Judge T.S. Ellis lowered the boom last week on Robert Mueller’s special counsels. Referencing the behavior of Mueller and his associates, the judge said, “What we don’t want in the country, we don’t want anyone with unfettered power. It’s unlikely you’re going to persuade me the special counsel has unlimited powers to do anything he or she wants.” This dialogue was part of the case against Paul Manafort, a guy of questionable character, whom Trump should never have hired. But he, like all of us, has constitutional rights.

Mueller has trampled, or at least bent, our constitutional rights on search-and-seizure and right-to-counsel. Those are 4th and 6th amendment constitutional rights.

Judge Ellis knows the Manafort case is part of a witch hunt to get Trump and said so without using the witch hunt label.

Special counsels, and the law that permits them, are both very dangerous. These special counsels almost always get out-of-control because the DOJ is afraid, for political reasons, to rein them in.

To my conservative friends who want a second special counsel to prosecute Hillary Clinton and many others in the Obama administration, I suggest you change your tune. Let the DOJ do that through the normal prosecutorial process. Getting “justice” at the cost of our constitutional rights is a trade we dare not make.

To my liberal friends…ask yourself if you want your lawyer’s office raided and any files mentioning you seized. Also, ask yourself if you’d like every transaction, professional or personal, you ever made be subject to unlimited prosecutorial attack.

And, on an even broader front…consider that our 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 6th amendment rights are all being attacked or violated NOW. We all need to push back on all those threats!

Predictive Political & Economic Measures

2018 election prediction summary

Below are several election and policy predictions that I present each week and change if my indicators change. Speaking only to the 2018 election predictions, my current evaluation is:

  1. The Republicans will lose 5 to 15 net US House seats but maintain a small majority.
  2. CHANGE: The Democrats will lose 4 to 7 US Senate seats with the Republicans adding to their current razor-thin 51-49 majority. [CHANGED TO 4 To 7, UP FROM 2 TO 7.] The basis for this change is extensive polling showing but one or two Republican Senate seats are at serious risk. Eight or more Democratic held Senate seats are “in-play”.

POLITICAL MEASURES

  1. Right Direction-Wrong Track— This measure is widely used by pollsters, asking if things are going well or badly in the US. It has proven to be a good indicator if the party “in-power” was going to do well or badly. If the “wrong-track” reading is 62% or higher, it bodes ill for them. If 58% or lower, they do well. THIS IS MY MOST-PREFERRED ELECTION PREDICTION MEASURE. I use many quantitative and qualitative indicators, but this one seems to strip out a lot of extraneous noise. “Wrong-Track” is now at 53%, down 1% from last week.
  2. Generic Congressional Ballot—Also used by many pollsters, this indicator measures the current preferences of voters for which party they prefer in US House races. The polls I’m averaging are now at 46% D and 40% R, the D lead down 1% from last week. More important is that the Democratic lead has fallen from about 13% at the beginning of 2018 to 6% now. Historically, Ds need a solid lead on this measure to win a House majority.
  3. Presidential Approval—Trump’s approval rating, using my measure, is now 46%, a significant jump of 3% from last week. We’ll see if this increase persists and look to see why, if it continues. His approval rating is up from 40% at the start of the year. It’s at a below-average level for recent Presidents. But because of his unique and often disruptive style, the Gallup organization and others, including myself, believe this measure underestimates his real approval ratings by 5% or more. I will report his approval rating, but will use it for trend analysis, not election predictions.

ECONOMIC MEASURES

  1. U-3 official unemployment rate—The current level is 3.9%, a 17-year low. Low or falling levels of this measure are a positive for the “in” party. It is low and falling now, down from 4.8% a year ago.
  2. U-6 unemployment rate [broadest measure, including under-employment]—The current level is 7.8%. This is a very low level and fell from 9.4% a year ago.
  3. GDP GROWTH—Growth last quarter was 2.3% which is significantly higher than the average growth over the last eight years.

WAR

  1. The jobs issue and war issue are the 500-pound gorillas of American public opinion. If the economy is bad or there is a major unpopular war, the party in power is in trouble. Unpopular wars, like Vietnam and Iraq, shatter their support. Small wars, like Afghanistan and Syria are nearly always underway and usually do not have major effect unless they grow substantially in the cost in US lives.

ANALYSIS

The press continues to be obsessed with Stormy Daniels, Trump’s attorneys, and the Mueller investigation. My focus is almost always on the big-picture. Look at the hard facts:

  1. The economy is strong and unemployment at record lows for minorities and many others.
  2. We are not in a major unpopular war. Rather, we may well be on the verge of Korean peace and a totally denuclearized Korean peninsula.
  3. Trump’s approval rating has risen to 46% by my calculations, not great, but moderately good, especially because it is probably even a bit higher than that, as noted above.
  4. The right direction-wrong track indicator is now flashing positive for the Republicans and appears to be moving further in that direction.
  5. And, the generic Congressional ballot measure has also moved toward the Rs, although still predicting Republican losses in US House races.

It is still six months to the key November mid-term elections but momentum just now is clearly with the Republicans.

THE PUNDITS

Among the Political Punditry, the conventional wisdom for months has been that a Democratic Wave was building that would gain them the House majority and minimize their losses in the Senate, where they have many vulnerable seats.

I have disagreed and the predictions in the next section quantify that. I’ve demurred because my preferred metric [right direction-wrong track] is in territory that predicts relative success for the Rs. In addition, economic growth and job creation are excellent, and there is no major war.

The measures above could change, but if they stay where they are, the Democrats will make only modest gains in November. If the indicators change, so too will my predictions.

Soon we will have a raft of primary elections in the states to give us new grist for analysis.

Predictions

Election Predictions

Policy & Legislative Predictions

*NOTE: Remember that after being impeached by a Republican controlled House in 1998, not one Democratic Senator voted to remove Bill Clinton from office. It takes 67 votes and is more of a political process than a legal one. NO President has ever been impeached and removed. Richard Nixon resigned before the House and Senate could impeach and remove him from office.

Until next week…
Al Tuchfarber
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati

Al.Tuchfarber@gmail.com
Tuchfarber Political-Economics LLC, Inc.

Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the nation’s most accurate, while directing the social science Institute for Policy Research from 1975 to 2004. He also founded and directed the Institute for Health Policy from 1996 to 2004. He is an engaging and dynamic speaker and has published over 100 articles and papers about politics, society, and research methods.

Exit mobile version