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Will the Real Trump Please Stand Up!; FBI & DOJ: Malfeasance, Political Corruption, or Both; Inaccurate Internet News a Major Problem

Al Tuchfarber

Accurate Facts, Analysis, and Forecasts

In Brief

  1. Trump’s State-of-the-Union speech was a tremendous success, approved of by three-quarters of the 50 million Americans who watched. The Democrats got low marks and were rated as petulant for sitting on their hands.
  2. The details in the House Intelligence committee memo confirmed reporting of incompetence and political corruption at the FBI and DOJ.
  3. Gallup Poll-Knight Foundation study— three-quarters of Americans think inaccurate internet-based news is a major problem.
  4. Democrats are searching for a new leader and “voice.”

In-Depth

What’s Important

Will the Real Trump Please Stand Up!

Will the real Donald J. Trump please stand up!

President Trump’s State-of-the Union [SOTU] speech last Tuesday was excellent.

Three quarters of the 50 million Americans who watched it rated it positively, including almost all the Republicans and Independents and even many rank-and-file Democratic viewers.

Republican Never-Trumper Frank Luntz, who has often expressed revulsion over Trump’s words summarized the SOTU speech with one word… “WOW.” Luntz is known as a magician with words and messaging.

He opined that Trump’s address: “…represents the presidential performance that Trump observers have been waiting for—a brilliant mix of numbers and stories, humility and aggressiveness, traditional conservatism and political populism.”

The speech was brilliant. It was impresario Trump using one true hero after another to make fundamental points about American greatness and goodness. Trump even used a Korean hero to explain his aggressive policy against N Korea.

The most important aspect of the speech from a political standpoint was that the President was speaking directly to the American people, with no filters, in their own language and with ideas and values they embrace and revere. In effect, Trump communicated to the people… “I understand you” … “I’m with you” … “I value what you value” … “I’m going to make your lives better” …and, “I need your help”.

Trump’s performance, the heroes he honored, and the reactions of the audience of 50 million was in stark contrast to the performance of the Democratic Senators and Representatives in attendance. One commentator said that the Democrats spent the evening sitting on their hands and looking as if their dog just died. Trump was celebrating America and its great people in a joyous infectious way and the Democrats were communicating… “oh, woe are we.”

A great irony of the evening was that the frequently petulant Trump was a consummately accomplished adult and the Democrats acted like spoiled, bratty children.

That performance by the Democrats was repulsive to any unbiased observer of the speech and was displayed throughout the official media and to many millions more on social media. The Ds did themselves damage with a very unwise strategy at the very moment Trump was at his best ever. “Resistance” is one thing, but abject boorishness at a celebration on the Union and the people is quite another.

This is now two speeches in a row Trump hit out of the park. New leaf? We don’t know. But, the SOTU and Davos speeches were excellent on substance. More surprisingly, the tone and style were also very good. Will he revert to the tone and style which I recently graded a D, or is there a new Trump?

As he is President of all of us, whether we like it or not, we should all hope that he is maturing into the strong, effective leader he has the potential to be.

Fbi & DOJ Malfeasance, Corruption, or Both

I encourage you to read the Republican House Intelligence committee memo released Friday. Notwithstanding the accusations of some Democrats, the DOJ and FBI do not contest the facts. They do say that some important context is missing and that should and will come out soon.

But, the bottom line on this particular episode of a far-reaching political drama that is sure to go on for many more months is this– high ranking FBI and DOJ officials with documented political antipathy to Donald Trump actively participated in presenting flagrantly flawed requests for search warrants to the FISA court.

At a minimum, the flawed filings represent malfeasance and incompetence at the highest level.

The story will not end here. This is just the beginning of the official revelations to the public, although many other things have leaked.

Dozens of more investigations are underway by various Congressional committees, by the DOJ Inspector General, and by private advocacy organizations like Judicial Watch.

Legislation and Policy

Understanding the Upcoming DACA-Border Wall Battle

THIS IS AN UPDATED VERSION OF A STORY FROM LAST WEEK.

It is impossible to say for sure if and when the DACA/” Dreamers” v Border Wall fight will be resolved through legislation. It could be as part of the budget battle that next goes into crisis when the CR runs out on February 8. Or, it could be March 5, when Trump said he is ending the DACA protections imposed by Obama executive action or, it could slip past that date.

Please know for a fact, that a large majority of Americans, almost all Democrats, a substantial majority of Republicans in Congress and President Trump do NOT want the DACA “kids” deported unless they commit crimes unrelated to their parents bringing them to the US illegally. That statement is an absolutely hard fact that you would never know from listening to the press or the Democrats.

The President’s plan includes four components:

  1. Let all 1.8 million DACA “kids” stay and earn citizenship. [The public strongly favors.]
  2. Allocate $25B for a physical and electronic border wall. [The public is mixed on this.]
  3. Limit chain migration to nuclear families [mother, father, children only], not extended families. [The public supports such limits.]
  4. End the visa lottery program [50,000 people picked at random from countries with few current US residents.] [The public supports ending this program.]

The vote counting realities include these:

  1. 60 votes are needed in the Senate because of the filibuster.
  2. 30 to 40 Republican votes in the Senate are easy to get for a reasonable bi-partisan deal. That means 20 to 30 Democratic Senate votes are needed.
  3. D Minority Leader Schumer has four different groups in the Senate from which to locate those votes:
    • Strong supporters of the DACA “kids”—they favor a DACA deal at any reasonable cost
    • “Progressives” who say Resist Everything Trump proposes—no compromise with Trump
    • Traditionalist/ Labor Democrats—could go either way
    • The 10 D Senators up for re-election this year in states Trump won—their mantra—”get a deal.”
  4. About 216 total R & D votes are needed in the House—enough for a 50% + 1 majority.
  5. A substantial number of Rs in the House, perhaps half of the 241 Rs, will resist supporting the legislation, calling it “amnesty”. By any conventional definition it is not amnesty, especially because the DACA “kids” themselves committed no crime; their parents did. True amnesty would be if all 11-12 million illegal aliens currently in the country were given immediate citizenship with no fines or special requirements. No significant Republican is proposing that.
  6. Minority Leader Pelosi in the House doesn’t have many incumbents worried about re-election but has the three other sub-groups that Senator Schumer has.

The press and some pundits are saying the chance of a deal and passed legislation is minimal because there are strong voices in both parties opposing Trump’s proposal. But, those opponents tend to be the extremists in both parties and their votes are not needed if the left-center and right-center agree on a bill. There are plenty votes in both the Senate and House to get large majorities for a truly bi-partisan bill.

Expect a hue and cry, and a great deal of gnashing of teeth in public from both sides.

But, the important action will be occurring behind closed doors at the level of Trump, Schumer, McConnell, Ryan, and Pelosi.

Don’t be surprised if this war goes through several more battles, but, a resolution is likely in the next few months. Some in both parties say the Democrats want DACA as a fall election issue rather than to settle it now.

My guess is the DACA “kids” themselves and their supporters will not be willing to keep them at risk that long.

Media

Gallup-Knight Foundation Study Results—January 2018

Three-quarters of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents see inaccurate internet news as a major problem.
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Don’t forget the Tuchfarber 30 Day test — when you get upset about something in the news, ask if it is likely to be IMPORTANT in 30 days or so. Only seldom will it be so and you can usually ignore it.

The Democrats

Searching for a Messenger

Democratic strategist Patti Solis Davis joins many in her party looking for a leader and a messenger.

Quoted by “The Hill”, she says,” There’s a definite yearning for ‘Who’s my next great love?’ “…” And the problem is we’re really loving anyone we see. So we’re looking for someone we’re not expecting.” Examples just in the last two weeks were Oprah and Joe Kennedy.

President Obama is the past and can only do so much. The messengers now heard and seen most often are Senator Schumer and House Leader Pelosi, neither of whom has positive favorability ratings.

Their voices are tactical and confusing, not strategic, clear, and inspiring.

In the last few weeks Oprah was all the rage, but she now says running for President is not in her plans. Democrats gushed over Kennedy’s SOTU rebuttal, but it got mixed reviews from most others.

The simple fact is that the Democrats will not have a single, primary messenger until the spring of 2020, when they will have chosen their nominee from among dozens of contenders. Trump will continue to be the voice of the Republicans.

Another Word to Enliven Political Discourse

During the 2016 Presidential campaign Hillary Clinton enlivened the political discourse calling half of Trump’s supporters, “deplorables.” That will endure for decades as an example of a gift not to give to your opponent.

Nancy Pelosi may have done something similar by calling the tax cuts and bonuses workers are now getting due to the Republican Tax Bill, “crumbs.” One can just hear the water-cooler chatter…” How big are your crumbs?”

Predictions

New Predictions & Editorial Changes

Election Predictions

Policy & Legislative Predictions

#NOTE: Remember that after being impeached by a Republican controlled House in 1998, not one Democratic Senator voted to remove Bill Clinton from office. It takes 67 votes and is more of a political process than a legal one. NO President has ever been impeached and removed. Richard Nixon resigned before the House and Senate could impeach and remove him from office.

Until next week…
Al Tuchfarber
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati

Al.Tuchfarber@gmail.com
Tuchfarber Political-Economics LLC, Inc.

Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the nation’s most accurate, while directing the social science Institute for Policy Research from 1975 to 2004. He also founded and directed the Institute for Health Policy from 1996 to 2004. He is an engaging and dynamic speaker and has published over 100 articles and papers about politics, society, and research methods.
Disclaimer: This publication and its contents are not intended in any way as investment advice. They represent solely the political and economic analyses and opinions of Dr. Tuchfarber.

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